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Web Special for the Wright brothers' First Flight Centennial, 17 December 1903—2003 |
"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for 50 years.... Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions." —Wilbur Wright, 1908
Peering into the
Future with Wilbur and Orville Wright
On the brink of a new age, two inventors debate their
innovation's potential.
By Malcolm Wells
[originally published in THE FUTURIST, July-August 1995]
The following conversation may have been overheard at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, in 1903:
WILBUR
Orville, when you get that strut repaired, I want to talk to you about the commercial value of these machines. What I mean to say is, aside from putting on demonstrations at fairgrounds, do you really think there's any money to be made from flying?
ORVILLE
Are you serious? Airplanes are going to carry millions of passengers someday. And thousands of wagonloads of freight, too.
WILBUR
Come on, now, Orville, talk sense. Even a flying machine 10 times bigger than ours couldn't carry more than 20 people. And I doubt that they'd even be willing to sit out there. Imagine women and children traveling that way.
ORVILLE
Not on the wings, Wilbur; inside. There'll be enclosed cabins with soft seats and carpet on the floor.
WILBUR
And electric lights, too, I suppose. You really are a crackpot.
ORVILLE
Flying machines will be big enough to carry hundreds of people at a time, seven or eight miles above the earth, at speeds we never thought possible.
WILBUR
And feed them, too, no doubt. Will those future flying machines of yours have uniformed waiters serving dinner up there in the clouds?
ORVILLE
You think you're joking, Wilbur, but that's just the way it's going to be. Giant airplanes will streak through the skies at more than 500 miles an hour, crossing the country without stopping, and crossing the ocean, too.
WILBUR
Dream on, Orville! How are you going to move your giant machines that fast? A propeller would spin itself to matchsticks at those speeds.
ORVILLE
No propellers will be involved. Huge engines burning thousands of gallons of kerosene will blow out torrents of hot air to push the machines through the sky.
WILBUR
Do you know how much one of those things would weigh? It would need a ton of wood and fabric.
ORVILLE
Metal.
WILBUR
Metal? You're dreaming about flying machines made of metal? Do you know how heavy metal is? Do you know how many blacksmiths—and blacksmith shops—it would take to build one of those giants? And how many horses it would take to pull it out to a field big enough for flying? Don't you see, Orville, your ideas couldn't possibly come true.
ORVILLE
I predict that in the future it won't be uncommon for a flying machine to weigh over 100 tons.
WILBUR
Certainly. And where are you going to get those thousands of gallons of kerosene you mentioned? Look at the trouble we have trying to find gasoline for this thing.
ORVILLE
By then there'll be great petroleum works all over the world, producing millions of gallons of fuel, enough kerosene to keep thousands of airplanes aloft everywhere on earth.
WILBUR
I see. And how will they launch themselves into the sky? Won't you need some huge meadows? I can just imagine all the burnt fields your air-blast engines will create. And in the winter—they will fly in the winter, won't they?
ORVILLE
Don't laugh. They'll not only fly in the winter, but at night as well, and even in rain and snowstorms. Inside, the temperature will be as comfortable as it is around the kitchen stove. Think big thoughts, Wilbur.
They won't use grass fields. The flying machines of the future will leave from giant terminals paved all around with cement. They'll roll on rollways two or three miles long to get up to flying speed.
WILBUR
Two or three miles! Orville, you are crazy. Can you imagine the hundreds of horses and carriages your big air terminals would have to accommodate? And the stampedes you'd see every time one of those huge air blowers started to roar? Have you thought of all that?
ORVILLE
I have thought of those things, and for the moment they have me stumped. Carriages obviously couldn't handle crowds like that. Maybe railways could take passengers to the terminals. I'll have to give it more thought.
WILBUR
Well, while you're at it, think about how to keep your aerial leviathans from crashing into each other up there. No doubt you'll supply them with signal lanterns. But at those speeds....
ORVILLE
You won't believe the kinds of warning lights they'll have. But lights won't be the main protection against collisions. Wireless warnings will be sent from one machine to the next. The drivers will not only be able to talk to each other that way, they'll be able to see all the flying machines in their vicinities on lighted glass plates right there by the steering bars.
And the drivers won't even have to steer if they don't want to. They'll be able to turn on electrical control boxes to guide the machines to their destinations thousands of miles away. Think of it, Wilbur! It's all going to happen.
WILBUR
Yes, Orv.
Now, why don't you get back to that broken strut. I think I've got the whole picture in my mind now: Flying machines made of metal, and weighing tons, will roll for miles on beds of cement in order to get off the ground while carrying hundreds of passengers and thousands of gallons of fuel. The passengers will sit indoors—not out—eating dinners served up by uniformed waiters while the machines streak through storms and darkness guided by electric brains. And millions of passengers each year will somehow get to the giant air terminals even though there aren't enough horses, and the roads are too muddy, to get them there.
Ah, Orville, you always were the family dreamer, and I guess that's a good thing, up to a point. But can't you see what an awful world you'd create? People traveling at rifle-bullet speeds just to go faster than a train ... drums of kerosene piled up by the thousands at air-meadows ... throngs of people getting in the way of the airplanes.... Is that the kind of world you'd like to see?
Now that we've proved it possible to fly, I think people will lose interest in the subject. All the excitement and challenge are going out of it. I think we should turn to some sort of practical invention—not one based on all those pie-in-the-sky predictions.
About the Author
Malcolm Wells is an architect specializing in environmentally friendly
designs. He lives in Massachusetts.
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