Transition Engineering

Susan Krumdieck has worked to develop the analysis and design methods of transition engineering for more than 15 years. The new methods have now been published and deployed to reveal distinctly different future visions for various cities and organizations. Dr. Krumdieck is working with other academic and professional engineers to establish the International Society of Transition Engineers, Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand.
Frank Kreith, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Daniel Kenning, IMechE, Chelmsford, United Kingdom
Carey King, University of Texas, Austin, Texas, USA

Adapting to the exponential increase in fuel and resource consumption of the last century was challenging, but accomplished by engineering that focused on growth of infrastructure and new products to keep up with demand. What happens as growth in resource and energy supply stalls and declines over the next century?

This session focuses on the role of engineering and applied sciences in the transition from growth to decline. We explore the proposal that prosperity in the era of constrained resources and emissions will depend on the role played by the engineering professions. A misguided understanding of the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy has been focused on acquiring more energy from renewables. The challenge is to understand Transition Engineering as the way to fit demand to declining supply. This represents a profound paradigm shift for the people in society who are uniquely suited to change existing infrastructure and technology.

Highlights

Participants will leave this session with an understanding of:

  • How energy return on investment (EROI) and resource production analysis shows the inevitable decline of net energy to the economy from now into the future.
  • How the engineering changes must precede any economic, political, or behavioral changes and create a shift from growth to self-sufficiency as the source of prosperity.