Creating Global Strategies for Humanity's Future

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  Publication: August 1, 2006                           Order book

Executive Summaries

I. INTERNATIONAL FUTURES

The Dragon and The Tiger: Their Impact on North America in the 21st Century
by Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies

In Asia, an economic, social, and geopolitical revolution is under way. Dirt-poor just a generation ago, China and India are achieving growth rates that no other large country can match. China is already critical to the well-being of the global economy. India soon will be, and, in the long run, it is likely to be the richer of the neighboring giants. Both countries are using this new-found wealth and influence not only to improve the lives of their citizens, but also in ways the United States could soon find inconvenient. Both are competing for energy the American economy needs. Both are modernizing their militaries and building the ability to project force at long distances. China is negotiating bilateral ties with countries around the world, including many that Washington view as renegades and pariahs. India, too, clearly has a national agenda that will not always mesh with America's. The results will be felt around the globe for many years to come.

15 Global Challenges and Strategies
by Jerome C. Glenn

In this article, 15 critical global challenges have been identified and described, with strategies proposed for their solution. This process involved more than 1,000 futurists, business planners, policy makers, advisors, scholars, and scientists via a series of questionnaires, interviews, environmental scanning, and computer models. These 15 global challenges are part of a systems approach. Improving any one of the challenges helps the others; regressing in any one hurts the others. The first is no more or less important than the fifteenth, and each can be addressed both locally and globally; e.g., one can address sustainable development locally, within a corporation, nationally, and around the world.

The European Way of War 2005-2020
by Stephen Aguilar-Millan

Drawing upon material produced as part of the "America 2025" project, this essay sets out to examine the possible paths that the European Union (EU) may follow in developing a common defense policy. It considers how the institutions of the EU may develop, how the international security arena, and what mission assessment a common defence policy may have to deal with. It is suggested that, whatever happens, something new will emerge over the next 15 years as the EU develops the European way of war.

Breaking Boundaries of Dominance: A Social Cultural Strategy for Building National Science and Technology Capabilities in Jamaica
by Karen Bates Ramorino

Despite constant changes in methods and means for over the past 40 years of "technology transfer," for the majority of 160 developing countries technical assistance remains an uncertain endeavor for the future. The question remains, "Can science and technology (S&T) development help alleviate poverty and improve living conditions?" Research indicates there is often a gap between the possibilities of technology and the capabilities of local users, and there is very little research on how to effectively work within that discrepancy. This study describes and analyzes stories from 13 women working in S&T development in Jamaica. Their stories reveal influences and hind-rances from within the historical and socio-cultural foundation underlying S&T development, as well as creative way these women were breaking through legacies of domination from Jamaica's 500 years of colonial rule. Building S&T capability requires a more strategic, socio-cultural framework to better reflect the real issues of those in need and those conducting the work.

Women's Role in Building Alternative Futures: Towards a Global Network of Women
by Eleonora Barbieri Masini

In this article, the various capacities of women all over the world to rebuild social structures destroyed by emergencies such as war, conflicts, and natural disasters and to create solidarity are analyzed and contrasted. The analysis is based on empirical research carried out in many countries and the question is posed: Is it possible that women can build alternative futures at the global level through their greater visibility as social actors and their networking?

Brazil 2020: A Vision for a National Development Strategy
by James Terence Coulter Wright and Renata Giovinazzo Spers

In this study, several forecasting approaches were combined to develop a scenario-based vision, including Delphi forecasts, scenarios, and strategy mapping for the development of Brazil until 2020. A basic tenet is that a nation's strategy must be well integrated and articulated to generate positive effects. Policies for education, income distribution, regional development, trade, exchange rates, science and technology, and taxation must be adequately aligned. Articulated public policies define priorities and provide market signals that induce economic forces to make synergic investments, based on a clear vision of future development and private-sector investment decisions. A strategy map highlights the relationship between several levels of national objectives, and the construction of a common vision of future objectives accepted by stakeholders is crucial to the nation's development effort.

Vacuum Invites Fundamentalism
by Amitai Etzioni

In this piece, Amitai Etzioni focuses on the rise of fundamentalism in nations where economic and political modernization are making progress while religion is receding. In places such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, and North Africa, people are having a hard time finding soft answers to the moral and spiritual questions that nag us all—and hence have begun to return to hard ones. Much like in 1960s America, when a number of liberal movements set out to question traditional values, no shared mores have replaced these discredited answers and people have been left with a lack of normative guidance as to what is expected of them and their communities.

II. LEADERSHIP FOR THE FUTURE

Futuretorics: Creating a Language for Leadership
by David Pearce Snyder

We are all futurists. Each of us has a set of assumptions and expectations about the future derived from our experiences and education, plus the multiple changing roles that we play throughout life. Thus, to engage the consensual commitment of any group—the residents of a community, the employees of a firm, etc.—leadership must frame a vision of the future that addresses the diverse hopes and concerns of the group's individuals, an increasingly challenging task in our rapidly diversified society. As a guide to learders in accomplishing this crucial task, the classical discipline of rhetoric—the system of language and logic that the Greek founding philosophers invented to inform public debate in the world's first democracy—is described, and the application of Aristotle's basic tenets of rhetoric to the challenge of contemporary consensus-building is explored.

Democracy, Leadership, and Futures: How Do We Lead Us to the Futures?
by Mika Mannermaa and Pentti Sydänmaanlakka

Technological developments, especially in the information and communication technologies, have caused significant changes in the way we process and communicate information, carry out our businesses, and live our everyday lives. Competitive advantages in the world economy are constantly changing because of global economic developments. While societal and demographic changes add their inputs to the complex and turbulent situation in the world, the global political, environmental, and security situation creates questions and uncertainty, especially about democracy, leadership, and all our futures. A framework of societal change will ask, "what kind of new thinking do we need for 'governing the future'"? Leadership theories and models are combined with practical experience from the Finnish-based multinational corporations such as Kone and Nokia.

Leadership in the Era of Singularity
by Barton Kunstler

The expression of the leadership function is integral to a society's identity, yet certain leadership constants prevail. The cognitive singularity—extremely enhanced human intelligence achieved through technological intervention—will confront human beings with individuals with powerful minds with an impact on the nature of leadership and society. To establish a baseline for futurist scenarios that can prepare society for this change, a Nine-Phase leadership is proposed, with the ninth phase being the singularity era. Entities manifesting this new intelligence are termed "Enhanced Singular Individuals" (ESIs), while unenhanced individuals are considered the norm ("Norm"). ESIs are classed based on their independence, similarity to Norms, and relationship to the technologies that define them. Leadership itself will change profoundly as each group contends for position. Yet the situation of a creator deferring to the superiority of its own creations challenges history's basic assumptions about leadership. Elements that define leadership—hierarchy, the mythology and psychology of the leader, etc.—will be unsettled. We propose preparing now for Phase Nine conditions using simulations, social interactions with existing robotic entities, and gaming technology to transform a threatening situation into one with potential for social renewal.

Learning for the Future from Hindsight: The Core-Periphery Model of Leadership and Management
by Eddie Blass and Melissa Carr

This article highlights the importance of developing future leaders as individuals and differentiates this approach from the role and task focus that continues to dominate current management development ideas. Interviews and focus groups with over 30 senior managers and directors in organizations find that the incidents most critical to managers' development were those that fundamentally challenged who they are, that allowed practitioners and professionals to identify whether their current development activities are management-development or leadership-development-driven, and that were relevant to those involved in management education and management development in practice. The goal is to help practitioners and professionals identify and fill gaps in their management and leadership development provisions to enable them to better prepare leaders for the challenges of the future.

Wisdom and Leadership: Linking the Past, Present, and Future
by Bruce Lloyd

Decisions taken today are driven by our visions of tomorrow and based on what we learned yesterday. This basic rule applies to all decisions, irrespective of size. Every time we make any decision we are involved in some element of leadership, but the bigger the decision the more critical our leadership credentials become. This article will review the "Wisdom of the World" project and discuss the key questions:

• What is wisdom?
• Why is it important for leadership?
• How is it learned?
• How can it be learned more effectively—in order to improve the quality of our leadership and hence the quality of the decisions we make today about the way the world will be tomorrow?

In essence, the paper will argue that wisdom is the way we incorporate our values into our decision-making process. Traditionally, we have seen wisdom as the highest form of knowledge, within the Data / Information / Knowledge / Wisdom pyramid. But this paper will explain why that pyramid doesn't really work.

These issues are explored in four ways:

• By exploring the definition of wisdom.
• Through historic statements about the nature of wisdom.
• Through statements that we perhaps might accept as statements of wisdom.
• And through a review how this can be linked to the Data / Information / Knowledge / Wisdom pyramid.

III. LEARNING FOR THE FUTURE

The Pursuit of Virtue and the Future of Education
by Thomas Lombardo

A new way of thinking is needed to successfully address the challenges and problems of contemporary society; this new way of thinking requires an enhanced capacity for future consciousness, taught within our educational systems. Our modern educational practices and pedagogies need to help to identify solutions to major social and cultural problems. This paper postulates wisdom as the highest expression of future consciousness and that the pursuit of wisdom should serve as the guiding principle for the restructuring of our educational philosophy and practices.

Educating for Civilization Building in the 21st Century
by Barbara Ray Gilles

There is a deep instinct in human nature that recognizes schools as sacred places and communities of trust. We are inquiring into the best visions of educational excellence that lead to fresh ideals and fresh inspiration. All the world's children deserve respect and love, and this article is a call to build a foundation of collective wisdom for nourishing our inner greatness and building a life-centered world.

The Future of Transformative Learning: Action Research to Action Learning
by F. James Clatworthy

Action Research and Action Science, powerful promoters of Transformative Learning (TL), have established accepted niches in most higher education institutions. However, the power of TL should be used more extensively in K-14, with a focus on Action Learning (AL).

The Michigan Partnership for New Education supports the idea that TL can produce significant gains in school improvement, parent participation, and effective community development though Action Learning.

Higher education has encountered many challenges using Action Research (AR), and to some degree Action Science (AS), but those are minor compared to the problem in K-14 education. The real future of TL lies in teacher education and professional development for K-12 and community college faculty, where Action Learning should be promoted and employed. The ultimate benefit will be improved community development. If TL works in low-achieving urban education settings, than its future as AR, AS, and AL is guaranteed.

IV. SUSTAINABLE FUTURES

Beyond Utopia: Building Sustainable Futures Even Our Enemies Can Love
by Lane Jennings

Perhaps global peace and individual well-being for all could be achieved if those who disagree with us would change their minds or disappear. Unfortunately, this would require either mass conversion or mass extermination. Is there no future short of global monoculture that can prove sustainable?

People seek temporary escape from imperfect reality by many means. Some means are widely practiced but can have damaging consequences (e.g., alcohol, drugs, TV-viewing, gambling, etc.). Others are respected but appeal less to the broad mass of society (e.g., passionate immersion in the arts, religious meditation, etc.). A few are even labeled pathological because of their perceived impact on others.

Instead of "reforming" humans to eliminate "bad" behaviors, why not have society set and guard effective borders? Possible approaches include: safe havens (self-sustaining, shared-value communities); free zones (licensed pleasure premises); and parallel worlds (computer-generated role-playing environments). Such "social safety valves" might help even mutually hostile groups work together for common goals.

Energy 2020: A Vision of the Future
by José Luis Cordeiro

The planet is not running out of energy resources. The main problem with the Club of Rome in Limits to Growth is that they failed to consider technological change, resource substitution, and new energy options (from geothermal to solar). This article reviews possible energy mixes and the emergence of new players on the energy scene through the medium of a 2020 global scenario. It examines the future role of India and China, bioenergy, solar power satellites, and even petro technology. The 2020 global power grid is examined in detail, as is the biofuel cell and bacteria-generated hydrocarbons.

A New Model for Humanity
by Jean-Paul Vignal

If the development models inherited from the industrial revolution are not rapidly and significantly modified, the impact of human activities on the biosphere might threaten the long-term survival of Homo sapiens. However, more sustainable models—i.e., models that will ideally generate no waste, will work without non-renewable to recyclable raw material or energy sources, and will use renewable raw material or energy sources and recycled materials need to be developed.

Using renewable and recycled materials as raw materials will most probably dictate a more harmonious geographical distribution of productive activities, which will imply a multiplication of the production units, mark the end of the dominance of economies of scale by size, and substitute economies of scale by the number of units.

The geographic dispersion of multiple small units will require coordinating them by self-organized systems, having a broad autonomy to make local decisions through a simple and clear set of rules that are strictly enforced.

We will need to reconsider the role of the markets to make choices between social, legal, economical, or technical alternatives.

Eco Industrial Systems, based on cooperative and complementary principles, seem to be the most appropriate tool for this sustainable, locally rooted development.

The 3PY Strategies for Humanity's Future: Sustainable Enjoyment of the Planet's Pristine Wildernesses
by Thomas E. Muller

A practical strategy is proposed to combat the gradual and often imperceptible destruction of the planet's pristine wildernesses. Sustainable enjoyment of these ecosystems and the biodiversity they harbor requires stakeholders to continually apply the 3PY way of thinking—"Prepare Yourself, Police Yourself, Progress Yourself." Using the coral reef ecosystem and worldwide dive tourism as an example, the 3PY approach is illustrated with practical, concrete, and actionable strategies that help preserve the pristine state of the world's remote coral reefs. The 3PY strategies allow one to identify and allocate the various responsibilities that form a part of the effort to preserve many kinds of pristine wildernesses. Thus, 3PY thinking identifies all the stakeholders and users who perform some type of function in sustainable enjoyment and assigns preservation roles to each stakeholder, so as to uphold the unharmed condition of these wildernesses for humanity's future. 

V. NEW TOOLS FOR THE FUTURE

The Future of the Past
by Harlan Cleveland

Memory and imagination are a critical part of understanding our relationship with the future. This article draws on the work of John McHale about the unexamined acceptance of one's own period in time. The hit-or-miss nature of technology extrapolation is addressed as compared to the eternal verities of human relationships—exploring the relationships of the hard vs. soft science in foresight, especially relating to ethical and policy questions.

The State of the Art in Strategic Foresight
by Andy Hines

This article reports on a project to provide business and organizational analysts with a handy, how-to reference work for doing strategic foresight work. It gathers together the collective wisdom and best practices of more than three dozen futurists and translates it into a format easily accessible to the non-futurist professional. At the same time, it provides a useful framework, checklist, and suggestions that even the most experienced futurist is likely to find useful.

A General Model for the Treatment of Time-Spans on Futures Research and Planning
by Sergio I. Melnick

How can we bring futures research into real practice without deeply questioning the real "texture" of time? Short, medium, or long term really means nothing without some minimal conceptual grounds. Actually, the history of planning and futures research involves different ways of understanding time. "Preparing" for the future is managed quite differently from "building" the future. These types of questions are addressed based on a general model of observable reality that results from the weighted articulation of trends, events, and purposes.

Valuing the Future
by Anthony L. Haynor, Irene J. Dabrowski, and Jeffrey J. Swanson

This essay addresses the key role of values in future studies, in particular, how values are embedded in what futurists do, despite some claims to the contrary. In addition, a cybernetic problem-solving approach to futurology is detailed. This systemic approach to future studies consists of three main functions described in detail. The role of the futurist in this system and the goal of creating an integrative, holistic approach to the future are also discussed. 

VI. WORK IN THE FUTURE

Rethinking the Future of Work in Post-Socialist Societies
by Colin C. Williams

Capitalism is stretching ever wider and deeper into daily life across the globe. Recently, it has been challenged in the context of Western economies and the Third World by an emerging post-development corpus of thought. This critique of market hegemony involves the transition economies of East-Central Europe and the extent to which market practices penetrated these societies in the years following the collapse of the socialist bloc. This paper highlights not only the permeation of the market but also the multiplicity of development trajectories at both the household and societal levels. The goal is to provide support for a critique of market hegemony and to open up the future to alternative possibilities beyond marketization.

Lessons for Futurists from Labor's "Perfect Storm"
by Arthur B. Shostak

The future of organized labor will depend on an understanding of its own history. The Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO) strike in 1981 is a case study of the questions facing labor organization in the 21st century. Accommodation in negotiations, the force of public opinion, and the leverage of alliances were all largely ignored by this leader in public unions, leading to one of the most stunning blows ever suffered by organized labor. The insights of Peter Drucker and the utility of historical analysis are combined to develop a series of analytical conclusions about the potential trends in labor relations. 

VII. MANAGEMENT FOR THE FUTURE

Five Regions of the Future: Update 2006
by Joel A. Barker and Scott W. Erickson

The authors have observed that the world is witnessing the birth of technological ecosystems called TechnEcologies. These coherent bundles of technology behave like biological ecologies but are constructed of human-made elements instead of biological ones. These TechnEcologies are developing at a rapid rate, and the article includes examples of technology in each region and the results of a survey on preferences for each of the Five Regions.

Predict and Provide vs. Explore, Envision, and Plan: Transforming the Urban Planning Approach Towards the Future
by Elzbieta Krawczyk and John S. Ratcliffe

Thinking about the future of humanity cannot be separated from thinking about the future of cities. Today, half of the world's population lives in cities, and the number of urban dwellers is constantly growing. Cities play a key role in generating economic growth and are cores of human activity and frontiers of technological and cultural progress, but are a source of a broad range of social and environmental problems. Cities are especially vulnerable to the threats posed by factors such as climate change, terrorism, pandemic, and social and cultural clashes. Considering the role and situation of cities today, it becomes evident that a change in ways of thinking and acting about the future of cities is required in order to ensure their prosperous and sustainable development in the future.

Canada's Innovation Challenge
by Stephen Murgatroyd

Canada has a challenged innovation system that is not delivering the outcomes—productivity, competitiveness, new products, new investments—that were anticipated. This paper reviews the reasons for these poor returns on significant investments, and looks at policy choices that could be made and at the innovation system as a supply chain with key variables that can be monitored, measured, and reviewed.

Inventing the Democratic Corporation: Time to Redefine Business for the Knowledge Age
by William E. Halal

This article shows how the modern corporation could be redesigned to solve the problem of providing social responsibility while also enhancing economic productivity, and argues that the political cycle now favors such a change. It then outlines two strategies for moving toward a new corporate model.

VIII. HEALTH IN THE FUTURE

Some Scenarios for the Coming Osteoporosis Epidemic
by Jay Herson

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by low bone mass and deterioration of bone structure that causes bone fragility and increased risk of fracture. It is a major public-health problem in the United States and worldwide, with 10 million current cases of osteoporosis in the U.S. alone and 34 million estiated for the lower-risk osteopenia. These numbers are projected to increase to 14 and 47 million respectively by 2020. Women over the age of 50 years have a 40% lifetime risk of fracture, compared to 17% for men. It is estimated that 80%-90% of hip and spine fractures and 70%-80% of wrist fractures are attributable to osteoporosis or osteopenia. The annual cost of hip, spine, and wrist fractures is $15 billion, with about 63% of this total cost attributable to hip fractures. This paper describes the current epidemic and makes projections of prevalence and cost to the 2020-2050 era.

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