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A View of the Future through a
Ten Forces Lens
By Jim Underwood

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SUMMARY: In complex dynamic systems, events are increasingly unpredictable as complexity and rates of change increase. Change forces are those occurring in markets and technology, while complexity forces include economics, government, legal, media, climate, moral, psychological/social, and ideological forces. Among the author's predictions based on his 10-forces model: The U.S. government will work to eliminate dependence on foreign oil; families will become stronger as a countertrend to the effects of technologies that reduce person-to-person contact; and random violence will increase.

here are a lot of things about the future that excite me. In the next 10-15 years, I expect to see numerous medical breakthroughs. As the average person is now expected to live nearly 80 years, one should not be surprised to see that approach 90 in the next decade.

Although fuel cells are still not suitable for widespread use, I believe that the next 10-15 years will see that change. Also on the energy front, the new LED lighting should change the landscape when it comes to residential and commercial useage. I am extremely excited about the 3G telecommunication networks, and the future convergence of the DSP’s (digital signal processors), softswitching, and the Internet.

In considering the world of futuristic thinking, recent research reveals the need to enhance existing mental models. First, futurists have long understood the importance of including complexity theory as a metaphor, or basis for futuristic modeling. At the same time, some have forced Darwinian evolution into the model (complex adaptive systems) inappropriately. With increasing evidence refuting the Darwinian hypothesis, it would be unwise to make such an assumption.

Additionally, there is a growing body of research that asserts that environmental complexity also involves varying rates of change. Thus, any futuristic modeling, must account for both complexity and rate of change. In conducting research for my 2001 book Thriving In E-Chaos, I developed the "Ten Forces Model" for the purpose of explaining the interrelationships of the two factors. The following is a graphic representation of the ten forces, and how they interact.

The ten forces model reveals the eight forces that primarily drive complexity and the two forces that are the primary drivers of rate of change. It is important to remember that each set of forces, those that drive complexity and those that drive rate of change, are also strongly linked systems. I created the concept of "complex dynamic systems" to recognize this new reality. Simply put, the ten forces model and its resulting "complex dynamic systems" approach, reveal that complexity and dynamism drive the environment.

For example, technology forces clearly drive environmental rate of change. Consider just one interaction between the two areas. Opinion polls reveal that a major percentage of the US population no longer trust its mainstream media. (The ethics problem in the media is a topic for another time and place, however). The speed of diffusion (of information) as well as the availability of information in the late 1990s and early 2000s created an entire new family of web-based media resources. Additionally, as the demand for more unbiased information grew, the major media outlets discovered that they were losing viewers and readers at an alarming rate.

While a complex dynamic systems metaphor may add challenges to the futurist’s task, it can provide additional clarity and accuracy for futuristic modeling. In applying a complex dynamic systems metaphor to a fifteen-year future, here are some of the things we might expect to see.

• Expect boardroom and executive level clashes between those in their late seventies and eighties who want to keep their executive level jobs, and those in their thirties who want to get their jobs. The acceleration of health related discoveries and knowledge about fitness as well as health will mean that people will want to work much longer before retiring. Also, the current generation of 50ish executives will be technology-savvy, knowledge driven individuals fifteen years from now.
• FIDs (fully integrated devices) will change our lives, earlier rather than later. The convergence of telephony, PDAs, computing, wireless communication (including cell phones), digital-signal processing (the ability to convert voice and text to data), softswitching (the ability to forward digital messages from fax, office and home voicemail, etc.) and the internet is going to converge into new, integrated devices. Do not be surprised if the cell phone remains as a stand-alone device, and all other functions are contained in a portable, companion device.
• The implications of the increasing number of homes without fathers present are alarming. The overwhelming statistics that relate children raised in homes without fathers present and felony crime are unavoidable. As this trend grows, expect explosive growth in the number of "walled neighborhoods." Also expect a dramatic decrease in the number of people who will seek careers in law enforcement due to the significant number of injuries and fatalities that law enforcement professionals will endure due to increased societal violence. The US Congress will not deal with the problems, but will continue "programs" that fail to address the real needs of those who are both victims and perpetrators in the downward cycle of the family.
• Expect an earth-shaking plan out of Washington, D.C. for the elimination of all dependence on offshore energy sources over a ten-year period. The various constituencies will find unity in the commercialization of non-carbon-based fuel sources and clean energy sources. There are substantial political implications that accompany this agenda.
• Expect a revolution in the area of philosophy, and a decline of the liberal predisposition in academic circles. The public failures of relativism and pluralism (the predominate philosophical approaches of mainstream academia) will be replaced by a new fascination with rationalism and absolutism. This may carry over to the rejection of teaching of Darwinism in the fields of biology, management, and other areas where it is currently taught. The Enron, WorldCom, and other ethical scandals may bring new light into all thinking related to ethics and philosophy. This may also lead to shifts in religious participation, especially from those founded on relativism and existentialism toward those founded in rationalism.
• Expect a new emphasis on relationships. As families fragment in many areas, and technology diminishes person-to-person contact, expect many to again seek the stability and comfort of family and friendships. In some cases, this may lead to an increase in youth gang activities. In others, it will result in the creation of a new, family-oriented culture.
• Random violence will increase. The continued threat of ideological extremists is a reality. Family violence and workplace violence will also increase as the number of dysfunctional families’ increases. Expect workplace security issues to become an important issue over the next 15 years.

Dynamism and the Next 15 Years
As of this writing, the US stands at the brink of war. While some seen to believe that avoiding action in the short term will enhance the long term, the extremist nature of some in this global drama is good cause for concern. At the present time, political expediencies seem to prohibit "good and reasonable people" from coming together for a common purpose.

The challenge of dynamism or the acceleration of change is the real wild card in the current scenario. That is why many of the 15-year trends may begin to emerge within a 5 year window. There is another reality that one must remember when it comes to such scenarios. Complexity and dynamism by definition infer uncertainty.

While the current global reality is a reflection of moral and philosophical attitudes, that can quickly and radically change. The complex system we call "the world" has order. Companies that fail to match the macro environment cease to exist. Ideas that do not reflect reality ultimately fail and cease to exist. In the same way, in spite of the new wave of ideological extremism, there are those in every country and society who strive for order, justice, and peace.

There are always groups of rational, principled people who exist in this global malaise. With that said, wisdom leads us to expect the uncertain and work for the best of all mankind.

About the Author
Dr. Jim Underwood is the author of six books on the topics of complexity, corporate strategy, corporate intelligence, and leadership. He serves as a professor at Dallas Baptist University. He has been the recipient of numerous awards, including the International Competia Award 2001 for the first publication of Thriving In E-Chaos.

His writings focus on the fields of complexity, corporate intelligence, and corporate strategy. He is the developer of the concepts of "complex dynamic systems", "the four phase cycle of organizations", and "the five personalities of change." His articles have been featured in the Competitive Intelligence Review, the Handbook of Business Strategy, and numerous other publications.

He has an active speaking and consulting practice and has spoken at numerous CEO and management gatherings in the US and Canada. His consulting clients include IBM Corporation, Nortel Networks, and Sprint PCS. He lives in Irving, Texas with his wife, Patsy. His e-mail address is docj@airmail.net.

His book Competitive Intelligence (Wiley, 2001) is available in Adobe Reader and Microsoft Reader formats.

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