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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
March-April 2004 Vol. 38, No. 2

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Government

Water Without War
Conflicts over water need not lead to war.
By Clifton Coles

c.jpg (1724 bytes)ountries in regions of water conflicts are choosing to negotiate over water rights rather than fight, a Swedish researcher reports.

Citing the Jordan River basin in the Middle East, researcher Anders Jägerskog of Linköping University concludes that water issues between Israel and Jordan and between Israel and the Palestinians are taking a backseat to other contentious issues. In fact, the way the three groups cooperate on water issues is a model of collaboration.

Jägerskog studied processes of negotiating and decision making in the Middle East, one of the world's most conflict-heavy regions and, along with northern Africa, the region with the greatest shortage of water in the world relative to population.

The Jordan River is a vital resource for Israel, Palestine, and Jordan, all three of whom are dependent on one another when it comes to administering its waters. Jägerskog shows how, even in the midst of heated conflict, these adversaries have kept the issue of water availability and scarcity removed from war.

The conclusions drawn by Jägerskog's research may also be of importance to other areas where nations share a single water supply, like the Ganges River border between India and Bangladesh. "Of course there are conflicting positions in negotiations, and existing agreements are not always fair," he says. "What often happens is that might is right. But my point is that these conflicts do not lead to wars. The parties choose other means to solve them, or they do not solve them at all."

Even as increased population pressures make water scarcer, Jägerskog does not believe that conflicts over water supplies will result in combat and bloodshed. By importing foods that require plentiful water to grow rather than cultivating them domestically, countries with water shortages can partially compensate for their lack. He also cites the lowering costs of desalinating seawater and purifying and recycling waste water as possible future solutions to water problems that plague nation-states.

Source: Swedish Research Council, Regeringstgaton 56, 103 78 Stockholm, Sweden. Web site www.vr.se.

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