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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
March-April 2005 Vol. 39, No. 2

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Environment

The World's Water Crisis
by Clifton Coles

Conservation and creative capitalism could keep water flowing.

The world water supply is in crisis, and things are getting worse, not better. Unless radical steps are taken to alter the way water is withdrawn, used, and managed, the world could face a severe water shortage, say the authors of  The Water Atlas.

The water crisis will likely lead to ecological damage and reduce food production significantly, leading to malnutrition and disease.

A future with limited water can be avoided, write Robin Clarke, editor of the World Meteorological Organization's World Climate News, and environmental author Jannet King. Widespread recognition of the problem, coupled with the desire to act, is a vital first step.

Clarke and King offer three scenarios for the world's water.

  • Under a "business-as-usual" scenario, the planet can expect a 39% increase in total water withdrawals by 2035. That's 5,270 cubic kilometers of water per year, up from 3,800 cubic kilometers in 1995. The likely result will be food shortages and widespread damage to the world's ecology.

  • A "business-nearly-as-usual" scenario yields only slightly less of a problem. In this scenario, industrialization in developing countries results in increased domestic and industrial water use by 13% (4,300 cubic kilometers). Even with limited expansion of irrigated land area, chronic food shortages can still be expected.

  • Even in a "changing-the-world" scenario where water is used more productively as a result of radical changes in water management, total water withdrawals will increase. Better water-management techniques include conserving supplies by repairing underground pipes, using more-economical methods of irrigation, and installing water-saving appliances in the home. Water collected from roofs and stored underground can make a difference—the airport terminal in Frankfurt, Germany, captures 16 million liters of rain a year on its roof and uses it for cleaning, gardening, and toilets. Water resources will also have to be managed in an integrated way by addressing people's social, economic, and health needs as well as the needs of the environment.

One controversial measure for conserving water resources is to charge people for the water they use, say Clarke and King. Advocates argue that this encourages water thrift; others point out that water is a human right to which people should have access regardless of whether they can pay. Nevertheless, as nations compete for this dwindling resource, the global water industry is expected to be worth a trillion dollars a year within a decade.

Another controversial issue is the trade in "virtual water," whereby rich water-stressed countries purchase other countries' water in the form of food. Some see this as a partial solution to the water shortage, but others see it as exacerbating the problem, arguing that the rural poor in both food-exporting and food-importing countries are unlikely to benefit from the trade. Water management that looks at the whole picture and involves the communities using the water is essential to maintaining the world's water health, as is funding for research to develop water-conserving technologies and cooperation between countries sharing river basins, write Clarke and King. 

Source: The Water Atlas by Robin Clarke and Jannet King. The New Press. 2004. 127 pages. Paperback. $24.95. Order online from www.wfs.org/bkshelf.htm.

To order the print edition of the March-April  2005 issue of THE FUTURIST ($4.95 plus $3 postage and handling) or to become a member of the World Future Society ($45 per year).

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