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Top 10 Forecasts From Outlook 2005 Report

Demography

Four Countertrends in Global Demography
By Clifton Coles

Fewer births, gender imbalances, and increased death rates affect population.

The rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility, the emergence of gender imbalances, sustained increases in death rates, and the exception of the United States to the demographic characteristics of virtually every other affluent Western state may impact future demographic patterns, reports political economist Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute. Eberstadt notes these four trends as exceptions to the demographic transition theory that predicts declining mortality rates as a society develops, followed by a decline in fertility rates sometime later.

• Sub-replacement fertility. About half the world's population lives in regions where the number of births is fewer than necessary to achieve long-term population stability. A society's women must bear an average of about 2.1 children per lifetime to achieve this goal. Nearly all the world's developed regions are reporting fewer births, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Many other regions are reporting the same low total fertility rates. All of East Asia (except Mongolia), Thailand, Burma, Kazakstan, Sri Lanka, many Caribbean societies, and most South American countries are showing sub-replacement fertility rates. In Iran, the total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.9 children per woman per lifetime, considerably down from more than six in 1986 and lower than that of the United States. Eberstadt also reports falling fertility rates in Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Turkey.

"The difference between a TFR of 2.0 and one of 1.5 or 1.4," Eberstadt reports, "is the difference between virtual long-term population stability and a population that shrinks by almost a third with each passing generation."

• Unnatural gender imbalances. Under ordinary conditions, around 105 boys are typically born for every 100 girls. In China, there are 120 boys for every 100 girls, a ratio that has increased since the country began enforcing its one-child policy. Unnatural gender imbalances are also being recorded in other East Asian regions that do not forcibly control population growth, including South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Gender-determination technology and a strong cultural preference for sons are contributing to this trend, which is spreading to parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe, as well as in subpopulations in the United States.

• Lower life expectancy. By U.S. Census Bureau projections, more than 40 countries are anticipated to have lower life expectancies in 2010 than they did in 1990, mostly due to pervasive health setbacks like HIV/AIDS. "These steep increases in mortality do not seem to be transitory, but will probably continue for decades," says Eberstadt.

• American "demographic exceptionalism." In the United States, overall aging is much more moderate than in western Europe, overall population is increasing, and there will be far more young people in 2025 than there are today. "Attitudes about individualism, patriotism, and religiosity seem to separate Americans from much of the rest of the developed world," and are contributing to fertility discrepancies, according to Eberstadt.

Source: "Four Surprises in Global Demography" by Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1150 17th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. Web site www.aei.org.

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