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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
January-February 2007 Vol. 41, No. 1

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Economics

Fractal Transactions: Launching the Future of Money
By Thomas Frey

New technologies could instantly pay all providers behind your purchase.

Imagine yourself sometime in the future sitting in front of a television, watching your favorite show, and a pizza commercial comes on. This is one of those commercials that hits you at exactly the right time and you instantly start craving pizza. For the next few seconds you stare at the screen and your mind thinks of nothing other than pizza. Finally you give in and utter the single word, Yes.

Thirty seconds later, a flying pizza drone docks at your house to deliver a piping hot pizza with exactly the right toppings. In addition to the pizza the drone also drops off a six pack of your favorite imported beer. Your "yes" command to the pizza drone launched an information chain reaction, so the drone automatically knew what you wanted.

The marketing world has long tried to figure out a way to combine the buying moment with the marketing moment. In this example, I take it one step further and combine the marketing moment with the buying moment and the fulfillment moment. There is no time to second-guess yourself, because the transaction is complete: You will very likely have a slice of pizza in your mouth before you realize how much money you spent.

Not only that, but everyone involved in putting that pizza in your mouth will have been paid the moment you said "yes." This scenario suggests the ultimate dream of marketers--a system providing instant gratification, instant money exchange, and satisfied customers.

As marketers and retailers know, speed sells. Technologies such as wireless handheld devices are helping automate the sales process by eliminating the concept of both the store and the line to stand in. For example, the emergence of a combination mobile phone and electronic wallet will allow consumers to purchase items instantly; payments made by mobile wallets can provide instant feedback as well as the location of the consumer. For marketing people this creates value far beyond the dollar amount of the transaction. Experts on the Internet have often theorized how the targeting and feedback potential of the online marketplace will dramatically change things.

Every transaction involves two sides of the equation, the payer and the payee. While some version of the mobile wallet will be changing life on the payer side of the transaction, we are also setting the stage for some major changes on the payee side. Traditionally, non-cash money transactions such as checks and credit-card payments have involved a time float to allow time for the money to clear their respective accounts. The initial recipient of money was always in the driver's seat controlling the speed, timing, and amount of payment transferred to the secondary and tertiary recipients down the financial food chain.

Today, the timing of transactions has accelerated, and the traditional time float has gotten squashed to zero. We have begun to see an era of real-time, nonlinear, fractal transactions.

A fractal transaction is simply an automated form of money distribution. Money flows into the transaction, from one or more sources, and instantly leaves the transaction, automatically distributing money to one or more recipients. This may not sound like anything earthshaking, but it is.

To begin with, fractal transactions remove the bottlenecks between the paying customer and all those whose added value to the purchased product or service requires compensation, such as retailers, warehousers, call centers, trucking companies, factories, advertisers, and design teams. When a purchase is made, money flows into a transaction and is distributed instantly: no wait for payment to be authorized, and no wait for money to clear.

For example, when you buy a book from Amazon.com, your payment is instantly divided four ways in a split between the author, the publisher, Amazon, and the shipping company. Additional recipients built into the fractal transaction may be a co-author, a referring Web site that gets a commission, or a warehouse worker filling the order.

The amount of money going to each recipient is determined by how the fractal transaction is set up, and in the middle of the transaction will be a bank or financial institution serving as a checks and balance entity for the system. A typical e-commerce transaction will involve multiple splits, such as among the manufacturer, distribution center, call center, shipping company, and the point of sale, which in this case is a Web site operator.

Ideas surrounding real-time distributed financial transactions like this are still in the formative stages. Building a core architecture for fractal transactions that is both open and flexible, yet at the same time secure and accountable, will be the key to its success.

I'm aware of several patents that have been filed in this area, but working models and functional business systems are still in the experimental stage. The basic setup of the fractal transaction for selling your new product will involve establishing payment strategies and building a distribution plan. This information all becomes part of the fractal.

Once the fractal is set up, the product will be offered to people in the online world who will decide if they want to distribute it. Properly executed, a fractal transaction architecture will make it extremely easy for Web sites to market your product. With good margins, an interesting product could organically be posted on hundreds of thousands of Web sites overnight.

Accountants and bookkeepers will need to rapidly become better acquainted with the automated spreadsheets and structures necessary to track and monitor these types of transactions. But the introduction and growth of fractal transactions will happen quickly because they unlock an efficiency the financial world has not yet known. The tempo of business will ratchet up a few notches, new business models will begin to materialize, and the old ways of doing business will begin losing participants as the flow of money short circuits and passes them by.

About the Author
Thomas Frey, a former IBM engineer and designer, is executive director and senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute in Louisville, Colorado. Web site www.davinciinstitute.com.

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