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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
January-February 2003 Vol. 37, No. 1

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Government

Water Pressure Build Worldwide
Skyrocketing water consumption is leaving many countries high and dry.
By Clifton Coles

c.jpg (1724 bytes)ountries around the world are facing growing water deficits as the supply of freshwater diminishes.

Historically, water shortages were local occurrences, but in an increasingly integrated world economy, water shortfalls are crossing national boundaries. And lack of water means lack of food. Seventy percent of world water use, including water diverted from rivers and pumped from underground, is used for irrigation, according to Lester R. Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute.

Future competition for water seems likely to take place largely in world grain markets, says Brown, because water-scarce countries often satisfy the growing needs of cities and industry by diverting water from irrigation, then importing grain to make up for lack of production.

Iran and Egypt, for example, import 40% or more of their total supply of grain. Morocco imports 50% of its grain, and Algerians, Saudi Arabians, Yemenis, and Israelis import more than that, as high as 90% in Israel.

Water loss is a growing phenomenon that is devastating and all-but invisible. Unlike other environmental disasters like deforestation, falling water tables cannot be readily photographed and are often discovered only when wells go dry. Water consumption worldwide has tripled over the last half-century. The drilling of millions of wells has pushed water beyond the recharge of many aquifers. The failure of governments to limit pumping to the sustainable yield of aquifers means that water tables are now falling in scores of countries.

In Yemen, for example, the water table under most of the country is falling roughly 2 meters annually as water use far exceeds aquifers' sustainable yield. Aquifers around Yemen's capital Sana'a are expected to be dry by the end of the decade. In the search for water, the Yemeni government has drilled test wells 2 kilometers deep--depths normally associated with the oil industry--but they have failed to find water.

The Earth Policy Institute suggests two courses of action for stabilizing aquifers: Raise water prices and control population growth. The first step, Brown argues, would eliminate pervasive subsidies that create artificially low prices for water in many countries. The next step is to raise water prices; this would reduce pumping to sustainable levels by raising water productivity and reducing water use in all segments of society.

Most of the billions of people projected to be born by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. Population growth can be slowed quickly by investing heavily in female literacy and family planning services, according to Brown.

Source: Earth Policy Institute, 1350 Connecticut Avenue N.W., Suite 403, Washington, D.C. 20035. Web site www.earth-policy.org.

Hot Spots for Water Wars

Recent contentious water hotspots include:

• Bolivia. Bolivians with little access to running water were charged hefty rates for water delivery in 1999. The government employed an international consortium to supply water to the city of Cochabamba and raised water tariffs to cover costs, resulting in protests and revolt.

• China. The Chinese government diverted $48.2 million from its budget to build emergency water supply projects in drought-plagued northern China in 2000. Tianjin, north China's second largest city, adopted water rationing and fines for water usage exceeding a set limit. Elsewhere in northern China, workers have put more than 2 million motor-pumped wells and 33,000 pumping stations into operation.

• Egypt. Egypt is entirely dependent for its water on the Nile River, which is now reduced to a trickle as it enters the Mediterranean. Neither Egypt, Ethiopia, nor Sudan can increase its take from the Nile except at the expense of the other two countries. Populations in these three countries is projected to climb to 264 million in 2025 from 167 million today.

• Iran. The water table is falling by 2.8 meters annually in the agriculturally rich Chenaran Plain in northeastern Iran. That, coupled with the cumulative effect of a three-year drought, has driven people out of the region, generating a swelling flow of water refugees.

• Lebanon. Israel will not allow Lebanon to divert water from the Wazzani River, a border river shared by both countries. Lebanon says it needs the water for parched villages in the south.

• Mexico. The government spends tremendous resources transporting water to Mexico City, which receives 70% of its water from southern states. On the U.S.-Mexican border, Texas farmers complain that Mexican farmers use wasteful irrigation techniques. A deal reached in 2001 to resolve water disputes stipulates that both countries invest in water conservation measures jointly.

Source: Compiled by THE FUTURIST from news sources and the Earth Policy Institute.

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