Demography
Population Growth Slows
More deaths and fewer births are projected.
Global population growth will be
slower than previously thought, according to the 2002 Revision of the United
Nations population estimates.
Earth is now expected to host 8.9 billion people by 2050--down from the
9.3 billion projected in 2000. The change comes as a result of projections for a greater
decline in births and rise in AIDS-related deaths.
Lower expectations of future fertility rates--that is, the number of
births a woman is expected to have in her lifetime--account for about half the difference
in growth projections. According to the report, 75% of developing countries will reach
below-replacement fertility (fewer than 2.1 children per woman) by 2050. The current rate
of three children per woman is down from six in 1960.
One reason for the drop in births is developing countries' investments
in their people's reproductive health needs, such as family-planning programs that include
making safe and effective means of contraception widely available.
"The revised estimates affirm that efforts in the field of
population have been a success," says Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, executive director of the
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). "Today, women and men in large numbers are
making their own decisions on birth spacing and family size, contributing to slower
population growth."
That's the good news.
The bad news is that the other half of the difference in growth
projections is due to a rise in projected deaths, the majority stemming from higher
projected levels of HIV prevalence. The report projects some 278 million AIDS-related
deaths by 2050. Even grimmer, for the 53 countries for which the United Nations makes AIDS
projections, the population in 2050 will be nearly half a billion smaller due to the
effects of AIDS than it would have been without AIDS deaths.
Despite the anticipated slowdown in population growth, however, today's
population of 6.3 billion is expected to increase another 2.6 billion over the next 47
years. At the current annual rate of growth--1.2%, much slower than the peak annual growth
rate of more than 2% in the early 1970s--there would be an additional 77 million people
each year. And with people living longer worldwide, the population figures add up.
Although the 2002 Revision reveals tempered projections for
global population, there are still extremes on either end of the growth spectrum. Russia,
for example, suffers from increasing mortality rates and decreasing fertility rates; its
population is projected to decline from 146 million in 2000 to 101 million in 2050.
Meanwhile, several very poor African countries, such as Niger, Somalia, and Uganda, may
see their populations quadruple.
Nearly all growth will be in developing countries, while fertility rates
are expected to remain below replacement level throughout 2050 in China, Japan, almost all
of Europe, and many parts of South and Southeast Asia.
Taking advantage of the new focus on successful family-planning efforts
and an increasingly dire health situation in developing countries, UNFPA calls for donors
to help these countries with future population control. "Developing countries need
additional resources to save the lives of women, expand maternal health care, increase
access to family planning and facilitate socioeconomic development for their rising
populations," Obaid says. --Hope Cristol
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-1950, New York, New York
10017. Web site www.unpopulation.org
