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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
September-October 2003 Vol. 37, No. 5

Contents of the Current Issue

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Online Indexes:
Author Index A-L
Author Index M-Z
Index of News Articles

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Writer's Guidelines

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Top 10 Forecasts From Outlook 2003 Report

Tomorrow in Brief
edited by Cindy Wagner

Predicting the Wind
To sell their energy, wind-farm operators need to predict when they can deliver the power, but wind is skittish and unpredictable. Researchers are hoping that artificial-intelligence techniques will make wind-energy forecasts more accurate. A method developed at Northern Ireland's University of Ulster assesses past wind-flow patterns to predict energy output up to 12 hours in advance and within a 12% margin of error. Current utility expectations work within a 50% margin, according to researcher Piers Campbell. "The need for forecasting is essential in increasing the competitiveness of wind energy as a renewable power source," he says. The assessment techniques could also help wind farmers select the most suitable sites for operation.
Source: University of Ulster, York Street, Belfast BT15 1ED, United Kingdom. Web site www.ulst.ac.uk.

Childless Seniors
Loneliness and depression are not inevitable for childless adults later in life, according to a University of Florida study. Contrary to popular beliefs about the benefits of having children, the study found that elderly persons without children are no more vulnerable to depression than those with children. The benefits of having children come from having good relationships with them; without those strong relationships, the senior parents were more likely to report psychological problems than were their childless peers, according to sociology professor Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox. Sweeping social changes over recent decades have made people more open to a variety of life patterns, removing much of the stigma and guilt of childlessness that once led to pity from others and depression among the elderly, she suggests.
Source: University of Florida, News and Public Affairs Office, 207 Tigert Hall, Gainesville, Florida 32611. Web site www.ufl.edu.

Wearable Power
Fabrics with solar-electricity-generating cells could be considered a holy grail for portable power, and several teams of researchers are working on various aspects of the goal. Solar cells are currently too small, delicate, and expensive to use in fabrics as wearable power sources, but scientists in the United Kingdom are working toward bigger, tougher, and cheaper cells. These could be rolled out as large solar carpets to provide power for tents in refugee camps or for emergency workers, for instance. Among the problems to tackle are replacing crystalline silicon, which represents more than half the cost of solar cells, with a cheaper material (such as titanium oxide or polymers) and creating electrical connections that hold current even when the fabric is bent. If such fabrics could be developed, potential uses include solar clothing for emergency workers and battery-free power in extreme environments.
Source: University of Bath, Public Relations Office, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom. Web site www.bath.ac.uk.

Can We Stick Like Geckos?
The tiny hairs on geckos' soles allow the lizards to climb the slickest of surfaces. This natural attach-unattach-reattach capability intrigues human developers of adhesives. Researchers at the University of Manchester have developed an adhesive tape that mimics geckos' feet, demonstrating the feasibility of self-cleaning, reattachable dry adhesives. Such artificial micro-hair adhesives could one day be used for "gecko gloves," enabling humans to climb the walls as easily as Spider-Man.
Source: University of Manchester, Public Relations Office, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom. Web site news.man.ac.uk/index_html.

Fireflies Help Fight Cancer
Genes from fireflies could help get cancer cells to self-destruct. The gene that activates a firefly's bioluminescence is inserted into cancer cells, causing them to glow. A photosensitizing agent is added, making the cells produce toxic substances and causing them to commit suicide. This principle is already used in photodynamic therapy--using bursts of light to attack tumors. Inserting the light source directly into the cells makes it possible to attack tumors deep in the body without using an outside light source that could damage healthy tissue on the way, according to researchers at University College London and the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research.
Source: Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, 605 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10158. Web site www.licr.org.

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