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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
September-October 2002 Vol. 36, No. 5

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Top 10 Forecasts From Outlook 2002 Report

Tomorrow in Brief

Africa's Hidden Water
Scientists have discovered enormous amounts of pure water below the deserts of Africa, which could help avert a future water crisis. Geohydrologists meeting recently in Tripoli drew up the first continental survey of aquifers hidden underground. Like rivers, aquifers may cross international boundaries; the huge Nubian Sandstone Aquifer, for instance, lies below the sands of Libya, Egypt, Chad, and Sudan. But unlike water from rivers, there are no international rules for the sharing of water from aquifers, points out UNESCO, which identified at least 20 transnational aquifers in Africa. Increasing population and competition for water resources may lead to growing tensions over aquifers among nations scrambling to pump as much water as possible for their own use.
Source: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 7 place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France. Web site www.unesco.org.

Penguins in Peril
Penguins foraging for food far from their home in the Falkland Islands may soon find themselves colliding with human explorers. Penguin trackers note that the birds are venturing well beyond their preserves on the western edge of the Falklands; Rockhoppers, the smallest of the Falkland penguin species, have been found up to 180 miles from home. But fishers and oil companies are also exploring the area, presenting a grave danger for the penguins, whose numbers may already be declining. "Oil spills and being caught up in fishing nets are among the most serious perils penguins can face in the open ocean," says University of Washington zoology professor Dee Boersma.
Source: University of Washington, Office of University Relations, 400 Gerberding Hall, Box 351210, Seattle, Washington 98195. Web site www.washington.edu.

Cancer in Pets Is a Warning
Cancer rates in pets could become an early indicator of environmental hazards and cancer risk in humans. Pets share the same environment as humans and are exposed to many of the same potentially carcinogenic compounds. Because cancer progresses more rapidly in pets, its cause can be determined more quickly than in humans. A newly established Companion Animal Tumor Registry in New York state will serve as a pilot project allowing researchers to merge animal-cancer and human-cancer data.
Source: Breast Cancer and Environmental Risk Factors, Cornell Center for the Environment, 112 Rice Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853. Web site www.cfe.cornell.edu/bcerf.

Lifelong Voting
Young people will become lifelong voters if they can be persuaded to vote the first time, according to Pennsylvania State University political scientist Eric Plutzer. Only a minority of young adults from even politically active families vote in their first eligible election, but once they've voted once or twice, they tend to vote regularly in the future. And once they become habitual voters, even setbacks such as periods of unemployment do not hamper their voting. Plutzer believes that young voters need to be sold on the idea of voting the same way a good car salesperson can get reluctant customers to buy cars--get them in the seat for a test drive.
Source: Pennsylvania State University, Public Information, 309 Old Main, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802. Web site www.psu.edu.

Growing Docket for World Court
The UN International Court of Justice is seeing a boom in business. The number of cases on the court's docket has grown from just one or two cases at any one time during the 1970s to 23 cases currently--five of which are between intercontinental disputants. The court is now taking steps to improve its working methods and accelerate its procedures so that important new cases coming onto the docket are not delayed. In order to increase the number of decisions it renders each year, the court is recommending greater cooperation between disputants, encouraging more-succinct oral statements, and limiting the number of repetitious written pleadings, replies, and rejoinders.
Source: International Court of Justice, Peace Palace, 2517 KJ The Hague, The Netherlands. Web site www.icj-cij.org.

Education That's Out of this World
As distance learning goes wireless and mobile, a professor on the moon may lecture students in Antarctica. "Interplanetary chats and guest experts from Mars, the moon, and space stations will be typical educational activities by 2020," says Curtis Bonk, associate professor at the Indiana University School of Education. The key to this scenario is wireless online learning technologies that free both instructors and students from the classroom. Freelance instructors and guest lecturers will be available anytime, anywhere; learners will design their own courses and use intelligent tutors embedded in software applications.
Source: Curtis Bonk, School of Education, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47408. Web site php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk/.

Gin with an Organic Twist
Martini-lovers concerned about the purity of their spirits may soon be able to enjoy the world's first totally organic gin, currently available only in Britain. The Juniper Green Organic Dry Gin is made from organic grain, water, and flavorings from organic botanicals such as juniper, coriander, and angelica. Distilled by London and Scottish Ltd. in England, the organic gin has enjoyed increasing popularity among tourists, and so will soon be exported to the U.S. market. One result may be fewer American headaches: The company claims Juniper Green's purity helps minimize hangovers.
Source: London and Scottish Ltd., Meadow View House, Tannery Lane, Bramley, Surrey GU5 0AB, United Kingdom. Web site www.junipergreen.org.

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