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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
May-June 2004 Vol. 38, No. 3

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Author Index A-L
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Top 10 Forecasts From Outlook 2004 Report

Tomorrow in Brief
edited by Cindy Wagner

Disappearing Snowcaps

Coastal mountains in the western United States will be 70% less snowy in the next half century, predict climate modelers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Global warming will reduce the amount of water stored as snow in the area spanning from the Sierra Nevada range to the Cascades. This will cause flooding in the fall and winter and drought in the spring and summer, disrupting the region's agriculture, fisheries, and hydropower industry. The model is based on a 1% annual increase in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through 2100; the result will be more winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and pushing the snowline in the mountains up from 3,000 feet to higher than 4,000 feet.

Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Media and External Communications, P.O. Box 999, Richland, Washington 99352. Web site www.pnl.gov/news.

Stimulating Weak Muscles

A miniaturized array of electrodes could help stroke patients and others with weak muscles get their arms and hands moving again. Implanted into a patient's arm, the "BION" microstimulator mimics signals from the brain, electrically stimulating weak or paralyzed muscles to effect functional arm and hand movements. Because the electrodes are small (less than 2.5 mm in diameter) and are controlled independently, as many as 255 can be used at once on a patient, making for a less-invasive and more-effective solution than previous systems. While about two-thirds of stroke victims regain some ability to walk, fewer than 30% regain useful arm function, which keeps them from living more independently, say the Southampton University researchers developing the device.

Source: University of Southampton, External Relations, Highfield, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom. Web site www.soton.ac.uk.

Battlefield Clarity

New software could give military decision makers a clearer view of a theater of operation, enabling them to predict enemy movements. The system coordinates information received from multiple air and ground sensors that track the movements of troops, artillery, aircraft, and other targets. The aim of the system is to filter out noise--the so-called "fog of war"--according to Tarunraj Singh of the University at Buffalo School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. The software system is part of the U.S. Defense Department's mission to develop network-centric warfare strategies, with information technology to link sensors, soldiers, and strategists.

Source: State University of New York at Buffalo, News Services, 330 Crofts Hall, Buffalo, New York 14260. Web site www.buffalo.edu/news.

Troubling Trends for the Human Future

Malnutrition, disease, and human misery in general will reach "unimaginable" levels within 50 years if current environmental and population-growth trends continue, warns agricultural ecologist David Pimentel of Cornell University. At current growth rates, the human population will reach 12 billion by 2054; reducing the birthrate from an average of 2.9 to 2 children per couple will delay that milestone by about 20 years. Feeding this expanding population will put more stress on cropland, which is already declining by 10 million hectares a year due to soil erosion, says Pimentel. "The only way to reverse the growing imbalance between human population numbers and food supply is to actively conserve cropland, fresh water, energy, and other environmental resources," he concludes, recommending more effort in developing ecologically safe agricultural technologies.

Source: Cornell University, News Service, Surge 3, Ithaca, New York 14853. Web site www.news.cornell.edu.

Biological Clock in Space

As humans explore beyond their earthly environments, their biological clocks will be severely disoriented. A team of researchers at the University of Virginia is now investigating the potential impacts of that biological disruption. Since the days are slightly longer and the light is redder on Mars than on Earth, astronauts' circadian rhythms could be altered, affecting their sleep, for instance. One result could be more accidents or mistakes due to fatigue. The researchers will explore ways to help astronauts adapt to space time through such strategies as changing the timing of meals, hormone administration, exercise, and adjusting light conditions.

Source: University of Virginia, Office of University Relations, 400 Ray C. Hunt Drive, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904. Web site www.virginia.edu.

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