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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
January-February 2007 Vol. 41, No. 1

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Tomorrow in Brief
edited by Cindy Wagner

"Earthquakes" in Our Bones

The same technology used to detect stress fractures in bridges, helicopter blades, and the earth itself could be used as an early warning device for bone fractures. Tiny cracks form when collagen fibers in the bone fail; the cracking produces sound waves, much as happens in an earthquake, but on a microscopic scale, explains biomedical engineer Ozan Akkus of Purdue University. Akkus is leading research to develop a device to monitor the formation of microcracks. "The goal is to create a wearable device that would alert the person when a stress fracture was imminent so that the person could stop rigorous activity long enough for the bone to heal," he says.

Source: Purdue University, News Service, Engineering Administration Building 400 Centennial Mall Drive, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907. Web site news.uns.purdue.edu.

Fitness and Cognitive Ability in Elderly

How well your mind still functions at age 79 may depend as much on your physical fitness as on what you scored on your IQ test as a child. Physical fitness (measured by walking pace, grip strength, and lung function) accounted for more than 3% of the difference in old-age cognitive function, according to a study recently reported in the journal Neurology. Researchers from the University of Edinburgh report that high IQ in childhood was positively associated with superior lung functioning at age 79, perhaps because people with higher intelligence are more likely to heed health messages about staying fit. But the researchers found that physical fitness has an even greater impact on later cognitive ability than childhood IQ. "Thus, two people starting out with the same IQ at age 11, the fitter person at age 79 will, on average, have better cognitive function," says study author Ian Deary.

Source: Neurology (October 10, 2006), published by the American Academy of Neuorology, 1080 Montreal Avenue, St. Paul, Minnesota 55116. Web sites www.aan.com and www.neurology.org.

Surge in "Prenups"

Recognizing that not all marriages have "happily ever after" futures, more couples are seeking prenuptial agreements ("prenups"). Nearly two-thirds of U.S. matrimonial attorneys surveyed recently report particularly high interest in prenups among baby boomers, who are now in the 40-60 age range. While the concept of planning for a failed relationship may seem unromantically pessimistic, most couples "realize divorce proceedings could be much more unpleasant without such an agreement in place," says Cheryl Lynn Hepfer of the American Academy Of Matrimonial Lawyers. Among the provisions requested: custody of pet, adultery penalties, limitations on weight gain, and housekeeping schedules.

Source: American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers, 150 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 2040, Chicago, Illinois 60601. Web site www.aaml.org.

Effects of Smoking Bans

Five months after a community in Italy banned smoking in public indoor places, it recorded an 11% drop in hospital admissions for acute heart attacks among people under age 60. Reducing exposure to passive smoking rather than less active smoking is credited for the dramatic reduction, according to researchers from the University of Turin. Prior to the ban, rates of acute myocardial infarction had been increasing. Among active smokers, the ban could account for a decrease in hospital admissions of just 0.7%. "Smoking regulations may have important short-term effects on health, [but] the long-term effects on respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and cancer will have to be evaluated over the years to come," says lead researcher Francesco Barone-Adesi.

Source: European Heart Journal (October 3, 2006), European Society of Cardiology, Web site www.escardio.org.

Impacts of Extending Corn's Growing Season

Corn farmers in the United States have been planting seeds earlier in the spring in order to extend the growing season and produce more corn. This strategy has largely succeeded, but environmental researchers warn that it could backfire over the long term. Improved land management and advances in biotechnology to create cold-resistant seeds have encouraged farmers to plant as early as possible--up to as much as two weeks earlier than they did 30 years ago. But shifting a plant's development too early could throw it out of synch with the climate it is accustomed to, according to ecologist Christopher Kucharik at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Kucharik warns: "Several decades from now we might see an unexpected drop in annual yield increases when this trend plateaus, which could then increase the threat to our food supply."

University of Wisconsin-Madison, Communications Office, 500 Lincoln Drive, 27 Bascom Hall, Madison, Wisconsin 53706. Web site www.news.wisc.edu.

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