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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
January-February 2003 Vol. 37, No. 1

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Author Index A-L
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Top 10 Forecasts From Outlook 2003 Report

Tomorrow in Brief
edited by Cindy Wagner

The South's Stroke Belt
A "Stroke Belt" has been identified in the southeastern United States, where stroke mortality rates are 150% of the national average. An even deadlier "Stroke Buckle" exists along that region's coastline, where deaths from strokes are twice the national average, according to researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. The difference adds up to some 9,000 more strokes in the region each year, with an estimated economic cost of nearly $1 billion. Among the theories for the region's higher stroke death rates are fewer healthy choices in diet, the prevalence of high blood pressure and diabetes, the drinking water, and lifestyle choices. The University has initiated a five-year study, called Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS), to investigate the problem and potential actions to save lives in the future.
Source: University of Alabama at Birmingham, 1530 Third Avenue South, Birmingham, Alabama 35294. Web site www.uab.edu.

 US map of stroke beltDeadly "Stroke Belt" states (in red) include North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana. In the even deadlier "Stroke Buckle" region (orange), stroke mortality is twice the national average.
credit: UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM

 

Rain Forests: Good News and Bad News
Less tropical forest was destroyed over the past two decades than UN estimates had indicated, but deforestation occurred at a faster-than-estimated rate from the 1980s to the 1990s, according to a study using remote sensing and weather satellite data. The study, led by Ruth DeFries, an associate professor of geography at the University of Maryland, found that carbon-dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation were less than half of previous calculations but that they had increased about 30% from the 1980s to the 1990s. "It is gratifying to find that more forest remains than we had once thought," she says, "but this finding should not confuse the fact that tropical forest continues to disappear at an alarming rate with enormous implications, not only for greenhouse gas emissions, but for diversity of plant and animal species found there."
Source: University of Maryland, Office of University Communications, 2101 Turner Building, College Park, Maryland 20742. Telephone 1-301-405-4621; Web site www.inform.umd.edu.

Majoring in Debt
Not all college degrees are equal when it comes to ensuring future prosperity, a recent study by Wichita State University accounting professors concludes. While a college education is presumed to advance a young person's financial prospects, the burden of loan debt can prolong a graduate's poverty, especially if his or her major was not chosen with economics in mind. While engineering, nursing, special education, and technology-related degrees left grads with "acceptable" debt burdens, art history majors had debt levels that were nearly three times what lenders recommend given their future earning potential. Debt among new college graduates and the rate of defaults on student loans are both growing, largely because the cost of higher education is increasing at about three times the rate of inflation, according to the study.
Source: Wichita State University, Office of University Communications, 1845 Fairmount, Wichita, Kansas 67260. Web site www.wichita.edu.

Cleaning Up E-Waste
The glass screens on TV and computer cathode ray tubes (CRTs) are full of toxic lead, which protects users from harmful ionizing radiation but makes them a serious pollution problem when they're tossed out. Now, a team at Oxford University has developed a technique to remove 90% of the lead from CRT glass, leaving it clean enough to be recycled. The researchers subjected pulverized CRT glass to powerful ultrasonic vibration and nitric acid treatment. The ultrasound breaks down the glass into smaller particles, providing more surface area for the acid to work on during the leaching process. The dissolved lead can be reused, and the cleaned glass meets the standards for either reuse or for safe disposal in landfills.
Source: Physical and Theoretical Chemistry Laboratory, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QZ, United Kingdom. Web site www.ox.ac.uk.

Nanobatteries
Cell-phone batteries are not powerful enough today to send and receive videos or faxes or perform a host of other desired functions, but chemistry professor Charles Martin of the University of Florida believes that nanotechnology can solve the problem. Martin and a team of researchers are using nanotechnology to create tiny versions of the anodes and cathodes needed for batteries. He reports success in creating most of the battery's components with nanomaterials, but the team has yet to develop a technique to assemble the components. The potential market for tiny, powerful batteries extends well beyond cell phones: Laptop computers, digital cameras, ultra-sophisticated "lab-on-a-chip" sensors, and other devices could benefit as well.
Source: University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611. Web site www.ufl.edu.

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