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Business 2010: Mapping the Commercial Landscape by Ian Pearson and Michael Lyons. Spiro Press. 2003. 232 pages. $27. Order from the Futurist Bookshelf, www.wfs.org/bkshelf.htm.
Business Tomorrow: Dealing with Uncertainty
Infotech forecasters assess the "certainties" and
"uncertainties" affecting business strategies.
Reviewed by Peter F. Eder
In Business 2010, pragmatic modeler Mike Lyons and unfettered thinker Ian Pearson—both with roots in mathematics and theoretical physics and backgrounds in IT and telecommunications—have crafted a practical assessment and forecast of the business landscape ahead.
Intended for business strategists and decision makers, the book delineates the technological, business, political, and social pressures anticipated over the next few years, then examines the implications of these pressures for business strategies.
In revealing how these trends will interact and impact in the time frame, the Britain-based authors sort out certainties from uncertainties.
• Technological certainty and uncertainty. Among the technological givens they forecast are that technological progress will continue, the business environment will be increasingly global and competitive, and the pace of change will continue to quicken. They forecast greater data storage, completely mobile computer and telecommunications access, natural language growth, and increased use of electronic cash.
Less certain are the potential business impacts of genetically engineered foods and peer-to-peer networking opportunities. Also not as certain is what new forms an organization will need to take advantage of a fast-changing cyberspace.
• Sociopolitical certainty and uncertainty. The authors see certainty in the expansion and evolution of the service economy. Aging populations, increased education, and growing individualism are also viewed as givens. Less certain is the outcome of increased conflict between the owners and creators of information and its users, but there will undoubtedly be more hassles over copyright and intellectual property rights.
The relationships between employers and employees will also change. The authors note, "As the workforce itself ages, firms will be faced with workers who are both more aware of their rights and more confident in pursuing their demands." One possibility is the increased marketing of employees by and for themselves.
• Economic certainty and uncertainty. Among the economic certainties about 2010 is that there will be more of a global economy. The authors also foresee the growth of "versioning." While not a new concept, versioning will intensify. For example, a new novel may be published in hardback initially, then offered in paperback or online in e-book form. For those firms with the technology know-how and applications sensitivities, mastery of versioning will produce real opportunities.
Uncertainty surrounds individuals' acceptance of free trade and the possible intensifying of political turmoil over economic issues. Totally free trade is proving remarkably elusive, as frequent current disputes demonstrate. Pearson and Lyons note, "The twin issues of globalization and liberalization are now guaranteed to generate violent protests at economic summit meetings." While the authors see little indication that trade liberalization will stop or reverse course, they expect it will prove quite contentious.
• Technological forces of change. Pearson and Lyons foresee a technologically augmented reality, symbiotic ad hoc networks, and growing use of artificial intelligence to create a "semantic web"—data collected and indexed based on meaning. File-sharing software will make peer-to-peer computer networks a reality. This climate will convert the information economy to the experience economy and perhaps a "dream society" that meets six basic emotional needs: adventure, defining ourselves, demonstrating our convictions, togetherness, love, and safety/security. Companies focused on providing consumer care, service, and of course entertainment will flourish.
• Societal forces shaping business. An aging society, falling birthrates, and growing individualism are among the certainties facing the business landscape, according to the authors. They also look at the moral imperatives, noting that there is a critical need to consider the societal implications. "While at present most employers prefer to recruit younger people, a shortage in the labor market will force employers to take on older workers," they note. "There will be increasing legislation and enforcement of policies to eliminate 'ageism.'"
• Government and business in 2010. Governments will find it much more difficult to balance the needs of the majorities with the minorities, given the ever-increasing ability of individuals to network in complex patterns. There will be heightened opportunity for computer-based crime, disruption of networks by malcontents, and less tolerance for others views, the authors believe. Firms operating in this environment will be pressured and more closely observed. Businesses will need to build genuine trust with their customers.
To measure the fitness of firms in 2010, the authors offer an equation: Fitness will equal flexibility multiplied by speed and vision, divided by experience. In this climate, formal planning may be less useful; flexibility based on knowledge of technology and its marketplace implications on an almost immediate basis will be more critical to business success. As Pearson and Lyons put it, "Those that are able to adapt best will survive; those that can’t will suffer and many will die out, even if they were the best. Turbulence is thus an evolutionary pressure and favours the most adaptable."
This slim volume is grounded in common sense and everyday experience. There is a refreshing absence of hype, and the short-term view (certainly for futurists) provides a crispness of perspective that should make this book a helpful management tool.
About the Reviewer
Peter F. Eder
Reviewed in THE FUTURIST, May-June 2004. Click here to order.
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