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[adapted from FUTURIST UPDATE, March 2003]
Predictions: 10 Years Later by Theodore J. Modis. Growth Dynamics. 2002. 335 pages on CD-ROM ($15 plus shipping) or e-mailed PDF file ($12). Order from the author at www.growth-dynamics.com.
Predicting Trends: A Forecaster Assesses His Tools
It is a brave futurist indeed who willingly assesses the accuracy of his forecasts, but such tests are vital if the tools of forecasting are to be honed.
In his 1992 book Predictions, strategic analyst Theodore Modis offered the insight that the rise and fall of many things--from an artist's creative output to a new computer model's sales--follows the same S-shaped curve found in natural life cycles. In that book, he examined such issues as whether death rates in the United States would continue to decline, whether coal production in the United Kingdom would continue to decline, and whether a "miracle drug" would be developed for AIDS.
How did the S-curve model do as a prediction tool? Pretty well, Modis argues. In 1992, he predicted that the death rate in the United States would no longer decline by the late 1990s, and indeed it has practically stopped, settling at a "well-tolerated equilibrium" of about 9 deaths per 1,000 population, he reports.
"From here onward one should expect stability around this limiting value, rather than further major declines," Modis writes. "If suddenly the death rate grew significantly, for whatever reason, society's combative efforts would intensify accordingly until things got back to normal. These efforts would not go too far, however."
Modis likens the movements of society to the ticking of a clock, arguing convincingly that trends leave telltale patterns, which forecasters can learn to track with increasing precision.
Reviewed by Cindy Wagner
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