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[Reviewed in THE FUTURIST, March-April 2005]
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them by Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins. Harvard Business School Press. 2004. 317 pages. $27.50. Available from the Futurist Bookshelf, www.wfs.org/bkshelf.htm.
How to Predict Surprises
Future shocks might be avoided if we can find and use the proper diagnostics and tools.
Book Review by Clifton Coles
What does a vaccine linked to autism have to do with national security? Nothing. Nevertheless, a provision protecting the vaccine's maker from litigation was dropped into the legislation to create the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Predictably, this "surprise" shows the hand of specialinterest groups in action, and implies an interest in protecting their own ventures in the face of larger concerns. Such power could, predictably, lead to further complications down the road.
Too many of the personal, professional, and global disasters we face, have faced, or will face are shockingly predictable, a point that joint authors Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins hammer home in their book Predictable Surprises. Bazerman, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, and Watkins, a strategy and leadership consultant, define a predictable surprise as "any event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." And, they say, such events occur frequently and can result in grave disaster to individuals, organizations, and society.
Bazerman and Watkins intend their book to be for business leaders and managers in search of a technique for avoiding catastrophe and achieving business success. "Careful analysis can be used to identify predictable surprises before they explode," they say, their examples running from the supposedly out-of-anyone's-control (September 11 being the obvious illustration) to everyday things closer to home (buying a car). In short, they conclude, there are no surprises—or, rather, there shouldn't be.
The authors take a hard look at some very public fumbles (including Enron and the 2003 blackout) and bring them down to the everyday level, in language for the average person on the front line. They offer steps and solutions for what can be done to recognize threats and mitigate or avoid them (communication, coalition building, structured problem solving, crisis-response organization). These practical suggestions keep this book from being a collection of anecdotes illustrating 2020 hindsight and ensure its usefulness for professional futurists and consultants.
Predictable Surprises opens with a discussion of the events of September 11, 2001, and the collapse of Enron and Arthur Andersen. Bazerman and Watkins present a rather chilling account of the facts of September 11. The staggering amount of evidence often makes it all the more baffling that what seem like obvious signals and confluences of signals went unheeded. The authors blame faulty decision making, cowardice, government structure, and privateindustry lobbying and donations for September 11, and they are equally critical of the Enron debacle. "Lack of intelligence," they say, "is no excuse for lack of preparation."
So why do so many leaders fail to prevent predictable surprises? Bazerman and Watkins argue that failure to prevent problems occurs at three levels. The first is human, cognitive bias: Egocentrism, the desire to maintain the status quo, and discounting the future are "the most fundamental, innate sources of predictable surprises." The second is organizational failure—failures in scanning, integration, incentives, and learning. The third is political—pressure from special interests of all kinds.
The most useful part of Predictable Surprises addresses prevention. "Leaders must enhance the capacity of their organizations to recognize emerging threats, prioritize action, and mobilize available resources to mount an effective preventative response," the authors write. The focus here is on barriers to successfully recognizing, prioritizing, and mobilizing against surprises and on proven techniques to strengthen an organization's capacity to perform these critical tasks.
For example, "Leaders must be relentless in raising awareness and building support for needed action." To do this effectively, their communication skills must be persuasive, inciting interest and calls to action. The authors offer some tactics for building these skills, including invoking the common good, linking choices to core values, and emphasizing gains over loss or risk.
The book concludes with future predictable surprises. The authors return to wider ranging issues (government subsidies, global warming, medical and retirement costs) and others closer to home, such as frequentflyer programs. "Use your miles before they explode!" they write. The airlines owe their customers billions of dollars in frequentflyer miles while continuing to bolster shortterm financials and use deceptive accounting to hide future problems, say Bazerman and Watkins. Simply introducing the program ignited a series of predictable consequences (people paying for flights with miles instead of money; airlines understating the ensuing debt; passengers using miles to pay for things other than fares, such as hotels and car rentals) that will end in disastrous legal action or crumbling revenue.
It seems rather obvious, but too many leaders miss the signals and are left with farreaching disasters on their hands. As a guide to escaping these traps, Predictable Surprises offers some valuable lessons and a means to prosperity. It is a call to action.
About the Reviewer
Clifton Coles is associate editor of THE FUTURIST and communications
director for the World Future Society.