FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FUTURIST ASSEMBLES CONCISE OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL WARMING

"There is growing reason for gloom when considering global warming trends," says futurist and Future Survey founder Michael Marien, "but there is an energy boom under way: a plethora of less-polluting technologies for conserving and producing energy while meeting rising demand. No single technology can suffice; a portfolio of some sort is needed."

In an effort to help the public better understand the emerging policy and market implications of global warming, Marien has scanned thousands of news articles, government reports, industry white papers, books, and other publications dating as far back as 1977. He's assembled his findings in a special Future Survey report, "Global Warming and the Energy Transition," published by the World Future Society.

The report includes summaries of books and publications from such figures as former chief economist of the World Bank Sir Nicholas Stern; president of the Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment Thomas Lovejoy; and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. The various summaries and abstracts "amply illustrate that concerns about climate change, energy efficiency, and energy supply have not changed very much over the years," says Marien.

According to Marien, four scenarios best sum up the likely future impacts of global warming:

1. "Catastrophe," defined as abrupt and disastrous climate change even if widespread and effective action is taken (but especially if not taken);

2. "Losing Ground," no palpable catastrophe, but continued warming with many serious impacts;

3. "Breaking Even," major efforts to reduce emissions lead to a halt in further warming; and finally

4. "Gaining Ground," in which heroic efforts on the part of humanity result in a decline of global warming.

"Although I think 'catastrophe' is the most likely of the four, I do not think it is probable" Marien reports.  He acknowledges considerable uncertainty but speculate that, over the next 20 years, the chances of Catastrophe are at roughly 40%, Losing Ground at 30%, Breaking Even at 20% and Gaining Ground at 10%.  "The new U.S. administration in 2009 is almost sure to devote more attention to global warming, but whatever is done will very likely be too little, too late." Order the copy for $15 ($13 for members) directly from WFS.

About Future Survey:

Published monthly since 1979 by the World Future Society, Future Survey provides abstracts of new books, articles, and reports on environmental, societal, international and governmental trends. Over the entire 28 years of Future Survey, a total of some 200 items have been published on climate change and 1,000 items on energy.

Editors: To request a review copy of this special report in either PDF or paper format, or of back issues of Future Survey, contact director of communications Patrick Tucker 301-656-8274 ext. 116, ptucker@wfs.org. More information about the World Future Society can also be obtained from the Society’s Web site, www.wfs.org