EXPERTS SEE HUGE INTERNET BUSINESS EXPANSION

BETHESDA, MD — A panel of experts predicts that electronic commerce will explode over the next 20 years. Look for virtual reality, long-distance education, and even telesurgery to expand, says George Washington University professor William Halal.

"We are poised at the cusp of another major technology transition, much as the 1980s brought the PC and the 1990s brought the Internet," says Halal in the March-April 2004 issue of THE FUTURIST magazine, available now.

Halal, director of the TechCast Project at GWU, picked the brains of 38 authorities, including high-tech CEOs, technology officers, scientists, engineers, consultants, and academics. The expert panel looked at 20 applications of e-commerce to produce the best possible forecast for when each is likely to take off, confidence level, and potential market size.

They predict that existing forms of e-commerce, including online finance, online publication, and entertainment on demand, are going to grow from their present 5%-20% usage to 30% by 2010. Widespread online voting, e-health, virtual reality, and the virtual university are likely to follow later, most by 2020.

Other forecasts:

Reliable speech recognition should be common by 2010; search engines like Yahoo and Google will operate by voice command.

Smart computers will be learning and adapting within a decade. They will be able to analyze problems, make decisions, and assess performance on their own.

Virtual robots (‘avatars’) will populate the Web by 2010.

Flat wall monitors should become common in a few years, including monitors the size of movie screens.

More e-commerce innovations are detailed in Halal’s article "The Intelligent Internet" in the March-April 2004 issue of THE FUTURIST, available for $4.95 at bookstores and newsstands and from the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Ave., Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814.

EDITORS: For more information contact Clifton Coles at 301/656-8274; fax 301/951-0394; e-mail ccoles@wfs.org.
2/25/2004