The Importance of the Future
To meet the challenges of the future, we need to find out about
what we can plausibly expect in the years ahead so we can understand what our options are.
We can then set reasonable goals and develop effective strategies for achieving them.
Many people believe it is impossible to know anything about the future,
so the future can simply be ignored. This is a very serious mistake. It's true, of course,
that we can know only a little about the future, but that little is extremely important,
because a knowledge of the future--even when it's very uncertain--is critical in making
wise decisions, in both our professional and personal lives.
Learning what we can know about the future enables us to think
constructively about it and do things that will contribute to our achieving a desirable
future, because preparation is needed to meet the challenges of the future and take
advantage of the new opportunities opening up.
We humans really do have the ability to think constructively about the
future, anticipate many future events, envision desirable goals, and develop effective
strategies for realizing our purposes. By learning about current trends and likely future
developments, we can develop a mental data bank and set of blueprints for improving our
future life. These assets can help us to succeed in whatever we seek to achieve.
Proactive, future-oriented thinking can lead to greater success in both
work and private affairs. The future will happen, no matter what we do, but if we want it
to be a good future, we need to work at it. As Adlai Stevenson put it, "Change
is inevitable; change for the better is a full-time job."
A Time of Convulsive Change
Every crisis should be a reminder to us of the importance of
thinking now about the future. A crisis almost always results from earlier failures
to deal with an emerging problem or to anticipate a likely eventuality. In retrospect, we
often recognize that the crisis was perfectly preventable.
The importance of thinking ahead is growing rapidly because the pace of
change is accelerating. New technologies--such as the Internet and genetic
engineering--are producing a cascade of economic and social changes in our lives and
raising serious questions for politicians and ethicists.
We are now in a period of convulsive change, when almost everything
seems to be coming unstuck: New technologies are also revolutionizing warfare and
restructuring governments. Scandals rocking business and religion call into question
people's faith in institutions. Advances in science and technology are raising unsettling
questions for people concerned about morality and ethics. The world's population, already
higher than ever before in history, continues to rise, along with the number of nations.
Societies around the world are undergoing radical restructuring as people regroup in
response to technological and economic shifts.
How Can We Think Ahead?
Many people do not understand how it is possible to think realistically about the
future, and clearly it is a challenging task. Still, futurists have refined scores of
useful techniques to help us think ahead. Here are three examples:
- Trend analysis begins with the systematic collection of data
concerning what is actually happening in the world around us; that is, measurable changes
in such indicators as the number of elderly people, the standard of living, and
atmospheric pollution. These measurements generally indicate a certain direction or trend,
and we can make a crude forecast simply by extending the trend line into the future. For
example, the current growth of world population makes it possible to estimate what the
population may be 15 or 30 years from now. However, such projections become less certain
as we look farther out in time.
- Precursor analysis is based on the observation that many phenomena
go through stages. For example, people go through a series of biological stages from
conception through gestation to birth, infancy, childhood, and so on. Similar patterns may
be seen in technological and social developments. By knowing the stages of such phenomena,
we often can anticipate future developments.
- Scenario analysis enables us to think about alternative future
developments. We can create a scenario--a series of possible future events showing how we
expect our business to progress in the future. We can then create two additional
scenarios--one assuming that revenues will be 20% above our current expectations
and one assuming they will be 20% below. We can then consider what might result
from each scenario.
The Role of Futurists in Business
People in business study the future to identify potential new products and services, as
well as markets for those products and services. Trend watchers also may identify
potential threats to their industry and can prepare to deal with them before they become
crises.
Restaurants, grocers, and other food-industry professionals study trends
in demographics to assess who their customers are and what their dining habits are. An
increase in minority populations in a neighborhood, for example, would lead a grocer to
stock more foods linked to ethnic tastes. An increase in young, single professional
workers or dual-income households--groups who feel pressed for time--might inspire grocers
to offer more ready-to-eat meals.
"Leisure" industries such as tourism, sports, and the arts
must gauge the public's desire to spend time and money on various activities. Real estate
markets fluctuate with demographic and economic shifts, which also have impacts on retail
businesses, school systems, and local governments. The health-care industry, including
insurance, is also directly affected by population trends, new technologies (including
pharmaceuticals), and economic fluctuation.
The Role of Futurists in Government and Policy Making
The public's changing values and priorities, as well as emerging technologies,
demographic shifts, economic constraints (or opportunities), and environmental and
resource concerns, are all parts of the increasingly complex world system in which leaders
must lead.
"Technology-related issues today besiege Congress across the range
of committee responsibilities--stem-cell research and human cloning, missile defense,
cellular telephones, genetically engineered foods, the Internet, and much more--because
technology has become a central part of modern life," according to
technology-assessment expert Vary T. Coates (THE FUTURIST, September-October 2001).
Policy makers might commission reports from future-oriented researchers
or task their own staff members to identify important trends. A scanning team for the
Hawaiian government was credited for giving the governor an idea for a statewide
after-school project and for inspiring the Hawaii Visitors Bureau to sponsor a conference
on ecotourism (THE FUTURIST, May-June 1993).
School officials must also track trends in order to assess numbers of
students to accommodate, numbers of teachers to hire, new educational technologies to
deploy, and new skills for students (and their teachers) to develop (THE FUTURIST,
March-April 2001).
The World Future Society:
Meeting the Challenge of a Changing Future
The World Future Society is the world's largest and oldest
organization devoted to the future. Founded on October 18, 1966, in Washington, D.C., the
Society is a neutral clearinghouse for ideas and information about the future.
As a nonprofit, nonpartisan, nongovernmental organization, the World
Future Society is not beholden to any corporation, government agency, political party, or
belief system. The Society takes no stand on what the future will or should be like, but
rather provides a forum for the exchange of information and opinions about the future.
Membership in the World
Future Society
The Society currently has approximately 30,000 members in some 80 countries.
Membership is open to anyone with an interest in the trends shaping the future.
- Regular membership includes annual subscriptions to THE FUTURIST
magazine, the electronic newsletter Futurist Update, and the tabloid-style
periodical Future Times, as well as discounts on books offered through the Futurist
Bookstore and on registration fees for the Society's annual meetings.
- Professional members also receive a subscription to the Society's
scholarly journal Futures Research Quarterly and the latest edition of The
Futurist Directory, for which they are invited to submit their own biographical
information to be included in the next edition. Professional members are also invited to
attend exclusive Forums held in conjunction with the Society's annual meetings. These
daylong events allow professional futurists in business, government, and academia to
exchange valuable tools, resources, and insights on the study of the future.
- Comprehensive professional membership adds a subscription to the
esteemed Future Survey, a monthly journal that offers abstracts of the latest
books, articles, and reports about the future.
- Institutional membership is also available for libraries and other
organizations wishing to make membership benefits available to several individuals.
Institutional members receive copies of all publications produced by the Society during
the course of their membership term, and they are offered special assistance in locating
sources of information or contacts related to their organization's needs and interests.
Institutional members also receive special recognition each year in THE FUTURIST magazine.
Publications
The World Future Society now publishes five periodicals (see below). In addition, the
Society has published books in conjunction with selected General Assemblies, directories
of professional members, resource guides, and anthologies of articles.
- THE FUTURIST: This
colorful, bimonthly magazine began in 1967 as an offset newsletter and is now a principal
benefit of membership in the Society. Each issue features articles written by experts in a
wide range of fields--workplace issues, criminal justice, social change, nanotechnology,
virtual reality, peace strategies, space exploration, ocean research, and much more.
THE FUTURIST also covers World Trends & Forecasts in the six sectors
of the "macroenvironment": Demography, Economics, Environment, Government,
Society, and Technology. The framework is designed to help focus attention on specific
aspects of larger trends, such as the economics of an aging population or the social
impacts of technological innovations.
Other regular features include Tomorrow in Brief, book reviews, Visions
essays, Consultants and Services listings, and Future View editorials.
- Future Survey: Each
issue of this monthly journal features 50 abstracts of the most important recent books,
articles, and reports on the future, organized into major themes such as energy, society,
cities, health, education, globalization, governance, work, environment, science and
technology, and change and uncertainty.
Edited since 1979 by Michael Marien, a gifted professional futurist and
social scientist, Future Survey distills the key ideas in each work and then gives
readers a bottom-line assessment: Is it worth your time to read that article? Is it worth
your money to buy this book? In an age of information overload, no serious reader of
futures literature can live without Future Survey.
- Futures Research Quarterly:
This professional journal is refereed by a distinguished board of editors from around the
world. Each issue includes thoroughly researched and referenced papers offering new
techniques and perspectives contributing to the successful practice of futures research.
The journal also publishes occasional responses to articles, as well as book reviews, news
of interest to futurists, and other features.
Edited by professional futurist and consultant Timothy Mack, the Quarterly
has devoted recent editions to special topics such as scenario planning, futures research
in business planning and management, and long-range views of the war on terrorism.
- Futurist Update: This monthly newsletter is sent by e-mail to all
members who supply their e-mail address. In addition to late-breaking news from the World
Future Society, the Update offers a selection of interesting and useful stories
culled from a variety of sources. Each issue also features a "Click of the
Month"--a featured Web site with uniquely valuable and interesting information or
resources for futurists.
- Future Times: An occasional tabloid newspaper distributed to
members, providing information about Society activities as well as feature stories and
interviews, a directory of chapter coordinators, and a book catalog with selections from
the Futurist Bookstore.
World Future Society
Conferences
They've been described as "world's fairs of ideas," "the greatest
intellectual shows on earth," and "a global village in microcosm." World
Future Society meetings are open to all members and are perhaps the most stimulating and
rewarding of all the Society's membership benefits.
Unlike reading journals or books, or even visiting the Society's Web
site, attending a conference allows you to meet other futurists, exchange ideas with
experts, ask vital questions, explore new fields of interest, and collect fresh insights
on a wide variety of topics, all in a relaxed yet invigorating environment.
The conferences offer several tracks, such as health, business,
education, creativity, environment and energy, values and religion, science and
technology, and international perspectives. Organizers have found that these tracks help
participants select the sessions they're most interested in, but
"cross-tracking" can also be highly rewarding.
Society conferences are also an opportunity for special-interest groups
to meet, and they often identify or organize session tracks in the program especially for
their members. At the 2001 meeting in Minneapolis, for instance, groups organizing tracks
included the WFS Mexican Chapter, Police Futurists International, Communities of the
Future, the Millennium Project, the University of Houston-Clear Lake, and the Women as
Futurists group.
The opportunity to meet other like-minded people each year is one of the
many intangible rewards of the World Future Society's annual meetings. "I don't know
what I'd do in the summers without WFS," said one longtime member and contributor.
"I'd have to go fishing or something."
The Futurist Bookshelf
Almost since its beginning, the Society has made it easy for members to order books
that are of special interest to futurists. Learn about important new books in a variety of
futures-related fields.
Some of these books, like Foundations of Futures Studies or Utopian
Thinking in Sociology, are extremely hard to find in even the best local bookstores.
Though specialized, these books are carefully selected by the Society's editors for their
suitability for a general, well-educated audience.
Thanks to Society's partnership with Amazon.com, all of these featured
books are easily available. Books ordered from Amazon through this site will produce
a small commission for the Society--an easy way to support the Society and get the
book you want.
Chapters
The World Future Society is both global and local, with chapters on six continents in
nearly 120 cities. Local chapters organize a variety of activities, including debates,
meet-the-author sessions, and trips to research institutes or other places of interest to
members. In 2001, the Oslo chapter organized a seminar on the future of money. The
Washington, D.C., chapter co-sponsored a symposium on the future of analysis. And the
Indonesian chapter organized a weekend retreat/conference on the challenges of the
Information Age.
Chapters may also publish their own newsletters; the Minnesota
Futurists, the Society's oldest continuously active chapter, publishes the newsletter Future
Trends and Futurics, a quarterly journal of futures research.
Chapter members are also extremely active in planning World Future
Society conferences when they come to town. Chapters in Minneapolis, Boston, San
Francisco, Houston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Atlanta became talent scouts for the
Society, contacting local experts to participate in the meetings and thus broadening the
range of ideas the Society is able to offer.
The World Future Society Web Site, www.wfs.org
Nowhere is the principle of "continuous improvement" better demonstrated
than on the World Future Society's Web site. New features are constantly being added, and
the site made easier to navigate. The homepage is your first stop for basic information
about the Society (such as the address and telephone number), with a complete site-map
menu on the opening page.
Among the special features of the site are links to Consultants and
Services and to Chapter Coordinators; Forums on Global Strategies, Social Innovations, the
Cyber Society, Utopias, Wisdom, and Opportunities; Interviews with prominent futurists;
and thought-provoking Forecasts gleaned from the current issue of THE FUTURIST. Also, a
special section on the threats of terrorism--inaugurated within hours of the September 11
attacks--has built up a collection of insightful essays.
Thanks to the unique character of the Web, the Society can always answer
members' questions, and stimulate their thinking about the future, 24/7.
How the Society Is Supported
The World Future Society depends heavily on the generous support of members and friends
who have donated both their time and money to sustain our programs.
Speakers on Society programs, scholars writing in our publications,
distinguished leaders on our board, and officers in chapters contribute their services
without financial remuneration or even reimbursement of expenses. In addition, many
members make periodic contributions of funds or include the Society in their wills.
This ongoing support is essential if the Society is to maintain its
programs and begin to address the critical need to make its services available to
underserved communities, such as young people and people in the developing nations.
The Society is currently trying to raise funds to establish a Web-based
guide to information sources on trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future. The
proposed World FutureGuide will make it possible for people around the
world--teachers, students, government officials, and others--to have easy, cost-free
access to basic information about what's happening in our world today and where it may
lead in the future. This tool--if the Society receives adequate funds for it--could be an
outstanding contribution to the world's future.
Anyone interested in contributing to the Society may contact Susan
Echard or Anne Silk at the Society (info@wfs.org) or
Kenneth W. Harris (harriskw@erols.com), who is
coordinating fund-raising for World FutureGuide. Donations are tax-deductible in
the United States.
The World Future Society: A Chronology
1966 The Society is founded in Washington, D.C., and is
chartered by the District of Columbia government as a nonprofit scientific and educational
organization.
1967 The Society begins publishing THE FUTURIST as a newsletter.
1968 First chapters are established in Los Angeles and
Minneapolis.
1969 The U.S. Internal Revenue Service recognizes the World
Future Society as a nonprofit charitable organization, allowing donations to be deducted
on U.S. income tax returns.
1971 First general meeting of Society members at Washington
Hilton.
1974 U.S. Vice President Gerald Ford speaks at Society's special
conference on energy issues. Society's first book (dealing with energy) is published for
conference members.
1975 The U.S. National Science Foundation and Library of Congress
give the Society a grant for a report on the study of the future.
1977 The Society submits to sponsors its two-volume report, Resources
Directory for America's Third Century.
1979 Future Survey, a monthly journal of abstracts, is
established.
1980 Canada's Governor-General opens Society conference in
Toronto, the first held outside the United States.
1985 A scholarly journal, Futures Research Quarterly, is
established.
1988 and 1990 Professional Members' Forums are held at the
Futures Library in Salzburg, Austria.
1992 Society's offices moved to modern office building in
Bethesda, Maryland. Collaborates with Smithsonian Institution on a lecture series.
1993 Society assists United Nations Development Programme in
establishing an Africa Futures project. A directory of organizations in the futures field
is published.
1995 Web site (www.wfs.org) is established.
1996 President Clinton commends the Society's members "for
working with vision and energy to develop creative strategies for fulfilling the Promise
of the future." Jenifer Altman Foundation gives Society grant for an environmental
bibliography.
1997 Society forms an International Council. Among the early
members are Sir Arthur C. Clarke (Sri Lanka) and Alvin and Heidi Toffler. The first issue
of Future Times, an occasional newspaper, is published.
1998 The Nathan Cummings Foundation gives the Society a grant for
its special conference on the Year 2000 computer problem.
2000 Electronic newsletter, Futurist Update, is launched.
Forums on Social Innovation, Opportunities, and Wisdom are started on the Web site.
2001 Society responds to September 11 attacks by putting on its
Web site nearly 40 essays commenting on terrorism and the responses to it. The site was
included in the Library of Congress's September 11 Web Archive.
2002 The Society now has 117 chapters in 39 nations.
Friends of the World Future Society
The Society has been supported over the years by the generous contributions of time
and money from its members and friends. The Society's authors and speakers share their
work and insights with no financial compensation. Among them:
- inventor R. Buckminster Fuller;
- writers Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov, Alvin Toffler, Gene Roddenberry,
and Frederik Pohl;
- political leaders Gerald R. Ford, Al Gore Jr., Newt Gingrich, Edward M.
Kennedy, Hubert H. Humphrey, and Richard Lamm;
- scientists Carl Sagan, Glenn T. Seaborg, B.F. Skinner, and Ray Kurzweil;
and countless other scholars, business leaders, and researchers, such as:
- feminist Betty Friedan;
- anthropologist Margaret Mead;
- actress Ellen Burstyn;
- media theorist Marshall McLuhan;
- architect Aurelio Peccei;
- and futurism's great pioneers, Herman Kahn, Bertrand de Jouvenel, and
Robert Jungk.
Top 10 Reasons to Watch Trends
World Future Society members recently explained why they study trends:
1. To get investment ideas and save money. A group of "angel
investors" reports finding new ideas by studying trends and reading World Future
Society publications: "You have saved us money!"
2. To get early warnings. Scanning the environment for emerging
opportunities and crises is like looking both ways for traffic before crossing a busy
road. It just makes good sense.
3. To get confidence. A solid foundation of awareness about
trends can give you the confidence to take wise risks.
4. To get an edge on the competition. Seeing what's coming before
others do can give you lead time to establish a foothold in a new market.
5. To get at the heart of a trend. Analyzing the details within a
trend can help separate truly significant developments from rapidly appearing and
disappearing fads.
6. To get goals in balance. Thinking about the future is an
antidote to a "profit now, worry later" mentality that could lead to trouble in
the long term.
7. To get informed on forces affecting your field. Health-care
planners, for instance, need to know what's going on in biotech and medicine, values and
public policy, labor supply and population aging.
8. To get informed on forces in many fields. Educators, for
instance, may follow trends in the economy and the workforce to know how best to guide
their students.
9. To get a glimpse of emerging futures. A trend is a glance at
potential futures; we can then take actions to turn those trends into opportunities.
10. To get yourself and others ready for the future. Many
futurists serve as consultants or counselors; they must keep abreast of trends not only
for their own sake but also to help their clients.
From "Top 10 Reasons to Watch Trends," THE FUTURIST,
March-April 2002.
