Wild Cards in Our Future

In the January 2009 issue of Futurist Update, the World Future Society’s free e-newsletter, we invited readers to submit their ideas of “wild cards” that futurists need to be looking at critically right now. This section showcases a few of the responses.

What is a wild card? According to FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish, author of Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, a wild card is “an unexpected event that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred.”

Many wild cards are disasters, such as an asteroid striking the Earth. However, a wild card might be highly beneficial, such as a revolutionary technology that leaves zero carbon dioxide, or a surge of peaceful co-existence among long-standing enemies.

The “advantage” of disaster scenarios, in terms of futurists, is that they give clear and urgent reasons for thinking ahead, whereas the possibility of a pleasant surprise does not normally inspire a need for planning. Some obvious exceptions to that complacency are when we unexpectedly receive a marriage proposal or a job offer, or learn of a new baby on the way—all of which require a great deal of futuring skills.

As you examine the following wild-card scenarios, think about the trends that may lead up to these surprise events, what might be done to prevent them (or promote them, in the case of beneficial wild cards), and how you, your family, business, and community might prepare for a world that has suddenly become quite different.

And if you can think of other wild-card scenarios, feel free to share them with us. —Cynthia G. Wagner

Cynthia G. Wagner is managing editor of THE FUTURIST. E-mail cwagner@wfs.org.

For more on wild cards and other tools of foresight, see Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish (WFS, 2004), which may be ordered at www.wfs.org/futuring.htm.