Marvin Cetron

Posted September 11, 2001

Just days before the September 11, 2001, apparent terrorist attack on the United States, including the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the World Future Society spoke with futurist author and speaker Marvin Cetron on the global threat of terrorism.

World Future Society: What do you see as the biggest threat to the security of nations, individuals, and organizations today?

Marvin Cetron: To society as a whole: terrorism, without a doubt-- specifically the terrorist use of NBC (nuclear, biological, and chemical) weapons of mass destruction. Both international and domestic groups pose threats. The greatest threat to individuals and companies is kidnapping.

WFS: Multinational corporations have a global presence, so shouldn't they share responsibility with governments to help keep the peace?

Cetron: No. Not directly. But because they are often the targets of terrorism (if you can't attack the U.S. embassy, you can try the local Coca-Cola plant) they should--and largely do--cooperate with governments and law-enforcement agencies.

WFS: How might businesses be more involved in national security without superseding governments?

Cetron: Share information with host country, embassy, and international organizations (e.g., Interpol); provide special training for employees (on how to reduce kidnapping risk, defensive driving, etc.); hire guards and professional consultants, such as cyberterrorism specialists.

WFS: It seems corporations are constantly at odds with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) over globalization. Is there a way to bridge this gap?

Cetron: The two are not always enemies. Some NGOs (Red Cross, Project HOPE, Doctors without Borders, etc.) are heavily funded by corporations--a fact often overlooked by those who march to protest at meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. On the other hand, there are groups who think capitalism itself is no good, and they are unlikely to be reconciled to business--particularly those who already embrace actions outside law and ethical behavior. This is actually one practical definition of a terrorist: any individual, whether acting alone or in a group, who rejects available legal and ethical mechanisms to promote or effect social change, but instead resorts to physical violence, destruction of property, and reckless endangerment of the public to get attention.

WFS: What advice would you give the CEOs of the world's largest multinational corporations to help them ensure a better future for their organizations?

Cetron: Operate within the laws of every country you enter--and treat your workers better than the local law requires. Ideally, pay workers the same scale wherever the same work is performed. Don't exploit locals--no sweatshops, no slave labor. In short: Be a good neighbor. Not only is such a policy ethical, it is smart and, in the medium- to long-term, profitable, too. Local benefits include gains in worker loyalty and productivity, less need for physical protection, and better public and government relations.

Publicizing these policies can also stimulate sales and defuse criticism at home and in other markets.

WFS: What can individuals do to protect themselves against terrorism?

Cetron: First, take the threat seriously at every level. Americans could lobby Congress and federal agencies to implement strategies against terrorism, such as protecting public buildings, maintaining stockpiles of vaccine against anthrax and other likely biological terror agents, and training doctors how to recognize and treat victims of chemical and biological weapons.

When Americans travel, they should avoid appearing obviously American or rich. Don't wear U.S. insignia or loud "tourist" clothes. Don't flaunt your U.S. passport. Don't fly first class, and when you have the choice, avoid sitting on the aisle (where you can be easily grabbed as a hostage). Most important, always be aware of your surroundings, notice how the people near you look and behave. If you begin to feel uncomfortable or conspicuous, move away. Your instincts are probably warning you of danger.

WFS: What is your biggest fear about global security right now?

Cetron: I see an ominous trend in the growing number of people who live in nations ruled by fundamentalist religious extremists. Such regimes (for example, Afghanistan, Iran, Chechnya, and Sudan) are frighteningly effective at controlling public access to media and information, stifling debate, and promoting stereotypes that make compromise appear intolerable. They may not direct terrorism, but their official policies and actions clearly enable and encourage unofficial groups and desperate individuals to plan and carry out terrorist acts.

WFS: What gives you the most hope?

Cetron: The fact that national governments are not sponsoring terrorist activity. Some countries still harbor terrorists--permitting them to train and organize on their territory--but nowhere do we find government agencies actually directing and coordinating terrorist attacks. This represents a marked change from the past, and it shows the effects of global economic pressure and diplomatic initiatives to combat terrorism.

WFS: What, in your opinion happened on September 11?

Cetron: This was planned. It wasn't simple. But I don't believe this was the act of another government against the United States. A lot of terrorism has to do with symbolism. Each act of terrorism has to be bigger than the last.

Futures consultant and speaker Marvin J. Cetron, co-author of Cheating Death (St. Martin's Press, 1998); Probable Tomorrows (St. Martin's Press, 1997), and many other books, is the president and founder of Forecasting International Ltd., e-mail marglo@tili.com.

Marvin Cetron will be co-hosting a panel on Terrorism and National Security at the World Future Society's upcoming WorldView 2002 conference in Philadelphia (July 20-22, 2002). In addition, his article describing vital signs in national security is scheduled to appear in the January-February 2002 issue of THE FUTURIST.

Collaborating with science writer Owen Davies, Cetron prepared a special report for the World Future Society for publication in early 2001: "50 Trends Now Changing the World" (28 pages), is available from the Futurist Bookstore for $8 ($7.20 for Society members), cat. no. R-2369. Click here to order.

This interview was conducted for the World Future Society by Lane Jennings and Cindy Wagner.