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Welcome. This page showcases recent articles published by the World Future Society and THE FUTURIST that are reserved for members only. Members can also search THE FUTURIST Archives free for material going back to 1992. We hope you will take a moment to learn about our exclusive member benefits and consider joining, today.

March-April 2011

Special Section: Health Care

Relationships, Community, and Identity in the New Virtual Society

By Arnold Brown

As we spend more of our social lives online, the definitions of relationships and families are shifting. A business futurist offers an overview of these trends and what they imply for organizations in the coming years.

Plus:

Avatars and Virtual Immortality

By William Sims Bainbridge

Already, many people have information technology agents, but these agents are so simple we do not ordinarily think of them as such.

Understanding Technological Evolution and Diversity

By Kevin Kelly

From the depths of the Amazon basin to the streets of Tokyo, technology is always evolving. Here, a Wired founding editor describes what technology wants—and what we can learn from observing the “technium,” the technological ecosystem.

As Tweeted: The Futurist Playlist

By Cynthia G. Wagner

The future has been the subject of awe, fear, hope, cynicism, and inspiration, reflecting our changing relationship with what may be ahead.

World Trends & Forecasts

January-February 2011

Pleasure, Beauty, and Wonder: Educating for the Knowledge Age

By John M. Eger

The future workforce will need to be more innovative, argues a communications and public policy scholar. While math and science are important, they need to be infused with the creative spark that comes from the arts.

The Future of Medicine: Are Custom-Printed Organs on the Horizon?

By Vladimir Mironov

Medical researchers are creating robots that can bioprint new tissue and organs directly into patients’ bodies while performing surgery—without assistance from doctors.

A Convenient Truth about Clean Energy

By Carl E. Schoder

The earth is awash in energy; we just need new infrastructure to tap it. A chemical engineer shows how we could break free of fossil fuels by deploying the power of ammonia and hydrogen.

Special Section: 70 Jobs for 2030

“Job creation” starts with innovative thinking, so we invited some of the best futurist minds to envision where the ground may be most fertile for future opportunities.

Future View: Future, Fantasy, And Positive Volition

By Matthew Colborn

When futurists choose to be optimistic, it is sometimes mistaken for mindless fantasy. But a psychologist argues that optimism is vital for effective futuring, because it allows us to face reality with the fortitude to make things better.

Future Scope

  • Tipping Point in National Debt
  • Who’s High Now?
  • Men, Women, and Cognitive Impairment
  • Reducing Military’s Resource Consumption
  • WordBuzz: Halfalogue

World Trends & Forecasts

November-December 2010

Strategies for Living a Very Long Life

By Verne Wheelwright

Personal futuring will get more complicated in the future. Try planning for your “old age” when you might live to 120—or longer! A futurist offers some tips.

Outlook 2011

Recent Forecasts from the World Future Society for the Decade Ahead

In the next 10 to 30 years, society will have to learn to deal with “peak everything”—an epoch of critical scarcities of a broad range of resources. Unexpected sources of expertise—such as physicists advising us about the economy—will guide us through hard times. And genetic tampering with crops will gain more acceptance if it solves critical environmental and resource problems, such as resistance to climate change and reducing the release of carbon into the atmosphere.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year. These are not “predictions,” but rather glimpses of what may happen, warnings of potential problems that could be avoided, or prescriptions for better futures we may wish to begin working toward.

Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies

By Cynthia G. Wagner

At the World Future Society’s 2010 annual meeting in Boston, minds meet and futures happen.

World Trends & Forecasts

Future Active

  • An Action Plan to Save Chimpanzees
  • The Office of the Future: A Pilot Project
  • A Futures Firm Launches on Two Continents

September-October 2010

Asia Redraws the Map of Progress

By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

Over the last 30 years, unique opportunities for high and persistent economic growth have blessed Asia, and policy makers grabbed them with both hands. Global growth was high, commodity prices were low, and a growing labor force turned China into the world’s top manufacturer. Meanwhile, there was not much pressure to heed environmental warnings. The policy challenge for Asia’s political leaders was primarily to manage economic growth.

All that is changing.

From Eco-Friendly to Eco-Intelligent

By Erica Orange

Around the world, growing numbers of consumers are purchasing supposedly eco-friendly products such as organic clothing, energy-saving light bulbs, and reusable shopping bags. But how much is actually known about these products, and are they as environmentally beneficial as they claim? Consumers are repeatedly told it’s okay to consume everything that’s eco-friendly, but the cumulative effect of that consumption on the environment is immense.

Wisdom Facing Forward: What it Means to Have Heightened Future Consciousness

By Tom Lombardo with Ed Cornish

In recent years, I have explored the nature of future consciousness—its psychological dimensions, its historical evolution, and its future possibilities—as well as ways to enhance future consciousness through education and self-development practices. Meanwhile, I have also explored the nature of wisdom—its connection to the ideals and goals of education, its impact on the quality of life, and its relationship to future consciousness.

I have come to the conclusion that wisdom is the ideal toward which we should aspire as we develop our awareness and understanding of the future. Heightened future consciousness and wisdom go hand in hand.

Future View: Tried and True-Technological Transformation, from Paper to Disk to Cloud

By Cynthia Wagner

Once upon a time, if you wanted to own music, you went downtown and bought sheet music for the hits of the day. You probably had a piano, a fiddle, or a guitar at home, and someone to give you lessons. If you wanted to share the music, you had a soiree.

Cut to a century later, and the new music I’ve been waiting to purchase has already been shared across the Internet. Ironically, the “new” music happens to be Clay Aiken’s album Tried & True, a collection of classic songs (i.e., old), and the hundreds of friends I’ll share “Moon River” with all live in my computer, in the clouds of online fan communities.

FutureActive

Mega Thinking for Mega Problems // A Handful of Inspiration // Collecting Global Intelligence // Measuring Impacts of Scientific Work

World Trends and Forecasts

Music Appreciation 2.0 // U.S. Canadaian Health Disparities // Ecosystems Get Their Day in Court

July-August 2010

Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis

By Eric Meade

To understand the potential futures of crime and justice, one must explore a full range of issues, the connection of which to law enforcement may at first seem tangential at best. Our perspectives and behaviors relative to crime and justice are informed by larger changes taking place around us—socially, technologically, environmentally, economically, and politically. Scanning the horizon for trends and developments that may influence the future of crime and justice informs our strategies to create the future we prefer.

Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments

For nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shape our future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that forms the basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstances of an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions. This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead. Part II of this report covers trends in energy, the environment, technology, management, and institutions. PDF available.

Part 1: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts.

Youth at Risk

By Gene Stephens

A quick scan of research on the subject of “youth at risk” yields a plethora of statistics and analysis of varying scope (worldwide or nation by nation). The United Nations estimates that the world today has 3 billion people under 25, and the youth population is projected to increase to 3.5 billion by 2020. In a new look at the plan he proposed a dozen years ago, a criminal-justice scholar draws on the insights of a Delphi panel of experts to develop new strategies for improving the prospects for today’s at-risk youth. PDF available.

Visions:

Garden Atriums: A Model for Sustainable Building

By Stuart Rose

When THE FUTURIST first reported on the Garden Atrium sustainable housing project we created in southeastern Virginia (March-April 2002), it was just under way. Since then, as the project has moved slowly toward completion, I began to research what we had not initially included in our project that would be essential to sustainable living. PDF available.

World Trends and Forecasts

Living in the Line of Fire // Social Networking and Open Government// Down-to-Earth NASA // Homes are Getting Smarter

May-June 2010

The Age of the Interface

By Richard Yonck

The word interface is defined as a connection between systems, equipment, or people. It’s most commonly associated with computing, but it is applicable to practically any human–machine activity. Interfaces exist to facilitate interaction. As Apple Computer put it, “The less alike two entities are, the more obvious the need for a well-designed interface becomes.”

From processing codes punched out on cards to interpreting our brain waves, our computers are progressively learning how to read our minds. Future interfaces will help man and machine understand each other better.

Coming, The Biggest Boom Ever

By McKinley Conway

The economic recession has prompted many to duck and cover, and many economists are making very pessimistic short-term and long-term forecasts. However, scrutiny of the factors at play reveals that the coming decade will bring a great deal of opportunity. Get ready for a period of unprecedented global development that will provide new opportunities for billions around the world. New economic growth is being driven by emerging industries ranging from nanotechnology to solar and wind power.

Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World, Part 1

Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts

For nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shape our future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that forms the basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstances of an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions. This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead. Part One of the latest edition of FI’s periodic trend report tracks economic, population, societal, family, and work trends, illustrating the multifaceted challenges facing individuals and their institutions at all levels, from the household to the globe at large.

March-April 2010

The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario

By Barton Kunstler

The “Human Singularity” refers to the radical fusion of the human body with technology to achive levels of mental acuity and physical ability that eclipse anything humans have previously known. One critical social function that will be affected by the singularity is leadership, a chief defining factor of a society's values, relations, and objectives. Leaders will bear much of the burden of social evolution when the “Enhanced Singular Individuals” (ESIs) of the Singularity Era enter the general population of “Norms” (those without technological enhancements). The leaders of every organization and group will be compelled to come to terms with the ESIs' advanced capabilities and the tensions, ambitions, and alliances attendant upon them.

Smart People, Dumb Decisions

By Michael J. Mauboussin

Chances are you’re unaware of the limits to your abilities, unappreciative of the challenges that lie ahead, and uninformed of all that can go wrong. Don’t worry — you’re not alone.

Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy

By Michael Horn

Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow

By John Dew

An educator and strategic planner outlines the trends leading to a long-forecast future for colleges and universities: Global standardization of education content and accreditation, greater diversity in the student body, and more options for where, when, and how learning takes place.

World Trends and Forecasts

January-February 2010

How to Feed Eight Billion People

By Lester R. Brown

The world is entering a new food era. It will be marked by higher food prices, rapidly growing numbers of hungry people, and an intensifying competition for land and water resources that crosses national boundaries when food-importing countries buy or lease vast tracts of land in other countries. Because some of the countries where land is being acquired do not have enough land to adequately feed their own people, the stage is being set for future conflicts.

The Post-Scarcity World of 2050

By Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd

The world between 2010 and 2050 is likely to be characterized by scarcities: a scarcity of credit, a scarcity of food, a scarcity of energy, a scarcity of water, and a scarcity of mineral resources. While it is important to understand the nature of these scarcities, their causes, and their cures, our main emphasis in this article rests upon what comes after the period of scarcity.

Deciding Our Futures

As the world becomes more complex, the likelihood of making poor decisions about our future increases, as does the cost of bad outcomes. This special section offers insights from futurists on ways that we can come to grips with the flaws in our decision-making processes and improve our strategies for making critical decisions about the future.

1. Decision Making Under Pressure by Stan Shapiro
2. Decision Modeling by The Futures Group International
3. Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty by Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes
4. Managing Your Mind by Michael J. Mauboussin

World Trends and Forecasts

November-December 2009

Outlook 2010

Welcome to the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year.

The Politics of Climate Change

By Roger Howard

Many experts argue that a complex, global problem like climate change can only be solved with global cooperation. But an alternative scenario might see more-advanced nations using their access to climate data as a weapon against rivals, in a new form of information “haves” versus “have-nots.”

Why the World May Turn to Nuclear Power

By Richard Stieglitz with Rick Docksai

Nuclear power, resisted by many, may provide a long-term solution, and it has come a long way since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.

PLUS: Second Thoughts on Nuclear Power By Michael Mariotte Cancer, toxic spills, and damage to ecosystems from mining might come with nuclear energy production.

World Trends and Forecasts

September-October 2010

Finding a Job in the 21st Century

By John A. Challenger

The current recession, expected to be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, will surely put to rest those old concerns about looming labor shortages, right? Probably not. Seek training, be flexible, and get hired in the fast-moving working world of the future.

The Global Talent Crisis

By Edward Gordon

We are in the midst of a global job and talent upheaval, the most remarkable of any job and talent change since the Industrial Revolution and encompassing every aspect of the global economy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are plenty of open jobs. What's missing are candidates with skills.

Peak Oil and Strategic Resource Wars

By Roger Howard

At various points over the coming decades, many of the world’s key oil producers will be forced to accept that their worst nightmare is no longer the stuff of dreams. As existing wells start to run dry and new reserves prove increasingly elusive, leaders in many oil-producing nations will have to confront the very real prospect of surviving without the resources that have long bestowed fabulous wealth and prosperity upon lands that would otherwise be bleak and barren. When the oil fields run dry — and they will — what will happen to the economies of petroleum producers?

New End, A New Beginning

By John L. Petersen

“The End Is Near” has always been doomsayers’ favorite slogan, but is it now finally true? The trends suggest the end of an era may indeed be near, as growing complexity and proliferating crises threaten to obliterate “life as we know it.” The time is now to prepare for the life we don’t yet know.

World War 3.0: Ten Critical Trends for Cybersecurity

By Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies

“Cybersecurity is the soft underbelly of this country,” outgoing U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell recently declared. Technological advances and greater connectivity may be making our systems less rather than more secure. A special panel of military, intelligence, and forecasting experts analyzes the trends that may be leading the world to cyberwar.

World Trends and Forecasts

July-August 2010

The Automation of Invention

By Robert Plotkin

Yesterday’s inventors toiled away in workshops, painstakingly designing, building, testing, and refining their creations. In contrast, tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then hand those descriptions over to computers to work out the solutions.

Mining Information from the Data Clouds

By Erica Orange

This cloud of data that we daily contribute to may yield a wealth of new, vital information. “Cloud mining” may soon allow us to predict behaviors of the masses and even offer advice, according to a business futurist.

Ten Forces Driving Business Futures

By Michael Richarme

In a struggling economy, the forces of change are putting more pressures on businesses and from more directions. Success requires both staying on top of current trends and spotting new ones over the horizon.

A Rendezvous with Austerity: How American Consumers Will Learn New Habits

By David Pearce Snyder

The forces of global economic retraction and technological evolution are altering the outlook for American consumers. If they can tighten their belts awhile, they may yet see a new form of prosperity—one whose well-being is more sustainable.

May-June 2010

Own Your Own Island Nation

By Thomas Frey

Who says they’ve stopped making real estate? One futurist explores the ultimate start-up: the private country.

Your Solar-Powered Future: It’s Closer Than You Thought

By James M. Higgins

Solar energy may soon power our homes, office buildings, automobiles, and iPods.

Looking Toward the Future in the Midst of Economic Uncertainty

By Martin Wolf

A Financial Times columnist looks at challenges facing the global economy and how the actions of governments could improve the situation—or worsen it.

Synthesis: An Interdisciplinary Discipline

By Bruce L. Tow and David A. Gilliam

As the professional world becomes more and more specialized, it’s time for today’s—and tomorrow’s— leaders to embrace a multidisciplinary approach to problem solving.

World Trends and Forecasts

March-April 2009

Timeline for the Future: Potential Developments and Likely Impacts

By Marvin J. Cetron

Designer babies, fiber optic plants, synthetic celebrities, and more: A timeline suggests when we’ll see the evolving technologies that will radically reshape human life. PDF available.

Emerging Technologies and the Global Crisis of Maturity

By William E. Halal

As technological development surges on, the ability of institutions to handle change is stifled by outmoded social systems. To survive the technological revolution in the midst of global crisis, a social revolution is also needed that will bring institutions and civilization to a higher stage of maturity.

Algae Power: Will Pond Scum Reduce Petroleum Dependence?

One remedy for the world's oil addiction could come from the same organism from which most petroleum was made. Algae may use our waste to power cars of the future (added commentary by Nick Hodge).

A Realistic Energy Strategy

By Tsvi Bisk

Energy policy must be realistic or it won’t work, says strategy analyst Tsvi Bisk. Fortunately, clean and sustainable energy is more realistic than you may think.

Saving the Environment: Five Creative Approaches

By Clifton Anderson

The actions of five individuals offer insights into how best to move toward a more environmentally sustainable future.

World Trends and Forecasts

January-February 2009

Marketing a More-Healthful Future: A Moderate Revolution

By John Sweeney

Advertisers have cleverly coaxed us to supersize our waistlines, while urban planners and a knowledge-based economy have removed the necessity for us to move around. For a fitter future, we’ll need the willpower to reverse these trends.

Toward a Fitter Future: Why Education Must Get Physical

By Kenneth W. Harris

Positive trends toward a healthier future society include innovative fitness equipment and activities that are appealing to adults. But the fitness ethos must begin earlier in life, and education should reintroduce physical activity for children, argues a futurist consultant.

Immortality 2.0

By David Gelles

A Silicon Valley insider looks at California’s transhumanist movement.

The Design Economy: A Brave New World for Businesses and Consumers

By Thomas A. Easton

A cutting-edge technology may soon converge with an innovative business model, giving consumers the power to download and print their own products — auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink.

World Trends and Forecasts

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