Methodology Forum

The World Future Society invites essays describing futures methodologies or techniques that may be of use to people interested in improving their ability to understand or plan the future in their personal or professional lives.

Copyright: These papers are protected by the authors' copyright and may not be reproduced or distributed without the authors' permission.

To submit essays: Please e-mail the full text, along with an abstract of no more than 50 words, to the editor. Only electronic submissions with an abstract will be considered.

Selection process: A panel of evaluators will make the final decision on which essays are posted here. Criteria for selection include: 1) Originality of the idea or method; 2) Importance of the problem addressed; 3) Usefulness of the methodology or technique to a broad range of applications; 4) Clarity of the presentation, making the ideas or technique understandable to a wide range of potential users.

Reading the essays: Scroll down to see the titles of each essay posted, along with a brief abstract. Click on the titles to read the full text of the essay. Make any comments with the form provided at the end of the text. Appropriate comments will be posted.

Le Chatelier or Bust?—Or Why Doomsday Scenarios Are Always Wrong
by Dr. David J. Goodwill
This paper argues that Le Chatelier’s Principle may be extended beyond simple chemical equilibria and applied to a wide variety of everyday situations involving systems that are in equilibrium. Because such systems always compensate when a stress is applied, their equilibrium seldom breaks down completely.

A View of the Future through a Ten Forces Lens
By Jim Underwood
In complex dynamic systems, events are increasingly unpredictable as complexity and rates of change increase. Change forces are those occurring in markets and technology, while complexity forces include economics, government, legal, media, climate, moral, psychological/social, and ideological forces.

Scenario Forecast
by Robert W. Barner
The scenario forecast shows you how to move beyond straight-line trend extrapolation and envision alternative paths into the future. This essay offers an eight-step method for teams to create a scenario forecast.

Software for Futurists--Scanning
by Verne Wheelwright
Various environmental-scanning software programs are reviewed. Software such as Biblioscape, Bibliographica, and Scholar's Aid are designed to help scholars and researchers organize their citations, references, footnotes, and bibliographies, and thus facilitate the presentation of the scanning results in the form of articles, reports, lectures, or books.