People everywhere sense the world is passing through a profound transformation, but they lack a convenient, reliable source of information to guide their understanding and to help them make decisions. The GW Forecast fills this need by bringing experts together online to forecast forthcoming breakthroughs and strategically plan for their impact. It can be thought of as a "virtual think-tank" that conducts its work electronically.
The Forecast pools the collective knowledge of the world's best authorities, and then automatically distributes the most accurate possible results based on this data to you -- anywhere in the world, on any prominent technology of strategic issue, in real time.
This system has been developed over the past ten years by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at The George Washington University. Results have been published in scientific journals, widely reported in the media, and attracted attention from corporations and governments around the globe. Earlier versions of the GW Forecast were conducted by mail, but is has been online since 1998. A variety of associated services are offered on a for-fee basis, including customized studies, speaking engagements, and other types of consulting. Our unique location offers unparalleled access to the intellectual resources of George Washington University, the U.S. government, and global institutions, all located in downtown D.C. The Forecast presently focuses on emerging technologies, the driving force behind today's change. However, the research team is working now to expand coverage to management strategy and other related fields, to add new features, and otherwise make this the world's most useful source of information on the Technology Revolution.
The GW team keeps abreast of technological advances and management strategies by constantly scanning the literature and media, interviewing authorities, and drawing on other sources to identify emerging trends. These trends are then analyzed to select those that are most significant. Finally, a Delphi survey is used to solicit estimates from our panel of experts describing how these trends should develop. As of 1999, this panel consisted of approximately 65 research scientists, academic scholars, and consultants located around the world. The estimates are automatically aggregated using algorithms to calculate various forecasts of interest, the most likely year in which the breakthrough will occur, its associated confidence level, the potential economic demand, and so on. Individual forecasts can also be combined to produce a variety of vivid scenarios. We find this methodology to be very powerful. It can be used to forecast any issue in any field, the results are replicable within +/- 3 years on average, and the process itself enhances understanding.
"Professor Halal and his associates have charted the emergence of 85 crucial technologies, complete with the dates when we will likely feel their impact."
The Baltimore Sun
"We found your study on Emerging Technologies extremely interesting."
Honourable David Watson
Minister for Public Works, Australia
"The GW Forecast is comprehensive and organized in a very useful fashion."
Betsy Irwin, Federal Reserve Bank