Top Ten Forecasts for 2010 and Beyond
More Than 200 Forecasts from The Futurist Magazine Each year since 1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the
years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as
the Internet, virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War. In anticipation
of Outlook 2010, we present to you our top forecasts from the last three
years
2020
Visionaries
Don’t
be alarmed, but the next 10 years could be the most significant in the
history of the human race. The unsolved problems of the last century
have grown in size and urgency. In a series of essays to run in this
magazine throughout 2010, we hope to bring you some answers.
In this first series of
essays, we tackle health and education.
Andrew Hessel showcases
his vision for open-source drug manufacturing and noted nanoscientist.
Robert Freitas details the
medical future of nanorobotics. Janna Anderson and Mark Bauerlein — present
two distinct visions for education in the twenty-first century.
How to
Feed Eight Billion People By
Lester R. Brown
The world is
entering a new food era. It will be marked by higher food prices, rapidly
growing numbers of hungry people, and an intensifying competition for land
and water resources that crosses national boundaries when food-importing
countries buy or lease vast tracts of land in other countries. Because some
of the countries where land is being acquired do not have enough land to
adequately feed their own people, the stage is being set for future
conflicts.
PDF Available.
The Post-Scarcity
World of 2050
By
Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd The world between 2010 and 2050 is likely to be characterized by scarcities:
a scarcity of credit, a scarcity of food, a scarcity of energy, a scarcity
of water, and a scarcity of mineral resources. While it is important to
understand the nature of these scarcities, their causes, and their cures,
our main emphasis in this article rests upon what comes after the period of
scarcity.
PDF Available.
Deciding Our Futures As the world becomes more complex, the likelihood of making
poor decisions about our future increases, as does the cost of bad outcomes.
This
special section offers insights from futurists on ways that we can come to
grips with the flaws in our decision-making processes and improve our
strategies for making critical decisions about the future.
PDF Available.
1. Decision Making Under
Pressure by Stan Shapiro
2. Decision
Modeling by The Futures Group
International
3. Robust Decision
Making: Coping with Uncertainty by Robert J. Lempert,
Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes
4. Managing Your
Mind by Michael J. Mauboussin
Foresight Conquers Fear of the Future By
Edward Cornish
“I’m scared,” the young man confessed. “I’m starting my eighteenth year in
a world that makes no sense to me. All I know is that this world I’m living
in is a shambles and I don’t know how to put it together.” ... Today’s youth
are growing up in the midst of radical social and economic transformations.
Now is the time to develop the most critical skill for effectively managing
their careers and personal lives: Foresight.
The Dymaxion Dream Reincarnate By
Cynthia G. Wagner One could not help but smile when Volkswagen
introduced its trim little concept car, the L1, at the 2009 auto show in
Frankfurt. Smile, with nostalgia for futures past … and for visionary
inventor R. Buckminster Fuller. The future is, and has been for some time,
streamlined.
BOOKS
Stewart Brand’s
Environmental Heresies
Futurist and ecologist Stewart Brand believes that the Green movement must
move swiftly and decisively to embrace technological solutions to climate
change—several of which many leading environmentalists have spent their
careers campaigning against—including nuclear energy, genetic modification,
mass urbanization, and geoengineering.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
Collecting Wisdom
about the Future
In October 2008, major U.S. financial institutions crashed, and economies
around the world went into recession. In March 2009, an asteroid passed
within 77,000 kilometers of Earth; had it made impact, it would have
obliterated all life within an 800-square-kilometer area.What do these two
events have in common? According to Millennium Project scholars Jerome C.
Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu in the 2009 State of the Future, both
were near-total surprises.
Review by Rick Docksai.
From November-December 2009 Scientific Breakthroughs Ahead! Young
scientists entering their fields today will grapple with perplexing
questions that their elders have left behind. What’s Next? Dispatches on
the Future of Science offers some of their answers. Editor
Max Brockman personally scouted out 18 of the most promising new researchers
and solicited original articles from them. The resulting compilation
promises to be “a representative who’s who of the coming generation of
scientists.”
Review by Rock Docksai.
From September-October
Opening Up the Shut-Down Learner
Four out of every 10 American students in elementary school today might give
up on learning well before graduation time, according to school psychologist
Richard Selznick. They will disconnect from teachers, tune out of class, and
simply “shut down” as students. In The Shut-Down Learner, Selznick tells
parents and teachers what they can do to re-engage them.
Review by Rick Docksai
Healing Habitats This fifth
book in Cliff Moughtin’s Urban Design series focuses on the design concepts
that will guide humanity to a more sustainable future, promote mental and
physical health, and create or provide a sense of community. Like the first
four volumes in the series, it speaks clearly and eloquently to
professionals working in the fields of urban planning and urban design.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
From July-August
Big
Ideas for Saving the Earth
Some
of the most thoughtful work on the topic of climate change appears in
Jamais Cascio’s new e-book, Hacking the Earth. Cascio is a Bay
Area futurist who worked with Global Business Network during the 1990s
and is currently a research affiliate at the Institute for the Future, a
global futures strategist at the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology,
and a fellow at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies.
Review by Bob Olson
How
Evolution Is Evolving
Mainstream science maintains that humans stopped evolving about 50,000
years ago. Civilization put an end to process. Therefore, the human of
the pre-modern era is the human of today and will be the human tomorrow,
right? Not so fast, say scientists Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending.
In The 10,000 Year Explosion, they argue that humankind is
evolving even faster in the modern age. We developed new genetic traits
as recently as the Middle Ages. The Ashkenazi (or European) Jews, for
instance, don’t just seem smarter; they demonstrate a genetic
predisposition toward higher intelligence.By Patrick Tucker
From May-June
Increasing Mental Fitness
In
Spark: The
Revolutionary New Science of Exercise and the Brain,
HarvardMedical
School psychiatrist JohnRatey
gives the majority of Americansand
the 60% of the world’s
people who do not exercise enoughfor
good health even more reason toget
off their duffs and start moving.Ratey
effectively summarizes recent
research and case histories to showthat
exercise is good for you mentallyas
well as physically — a regular
exercise program can literally heal a
troubled mind. Review by Kenneth W. Harris
From March-April 2009 Too Free for Our Own Good?
In a free market, it’s much too easy to make choices that endanger our
health and wealth, observes Peter A. Ubel, a primary-care physician, in
Free Market Madness. In a free market, we are free to overeat, smoke,
drink excessively, ruin our credit, and not save enough for retirement, and
it’s much to easy for us to make choices that endanger both our health and
wealth.
Review by Rick Docksai.
Imagining an American Utopia
If ever a book warranted a place by the bedside of the next president of the
United States (and his Cabinet appointees), Herbert J. Gans’s “utopian
narrative” Imagining America in 2033 is it. Likewise, any futurist
eager to learn how the American presidents from now through 2033 might craft
a remarkably finer country (and thereby, a much better world) have an
indispensable primer here. Written in the form of an engaging novel, rather
than a stuffy academic treatise, the book lightly instructs in policy
studies, pragmatic reforms, and the gritty give-and-take of tomorrow's White
House realities.
Review by Arthur Shostak
From January-February Hope in the State of the Future The Millennium
Project of the World Federation of United Nations Associations has
released a State of the Future report every year since 1996. This latest
edition draws upon all 12 predecessors and incorporates findings from
229 new contributing futurists, business planners, and scientists.
Review by Rick Docksai.
The
Emergence of a Global Generation Maverick
pollster John Zogby explains why the new American Dream is better than the old one.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
Solutions for a Better Future
This year, as the mainstream media focused on the scandals of the day,
THE FUTURIST looked at potential “fixes” to big problems awaiting
today’s and tomorrow’s young people. Generous members of the World
Future Society make that happen. We’ve highlighted, briefly, how the
issue will develop in the years ahead, and we discuss uncommon solutions
featured in THE FUTURIST magazine.
FUTURIST UPDATE, JANUARY 2010 Gaming strategies for better
work performance…. Diabetes cases predicted to double in 20 years.…
Millennial generation’s proposals for fiscal soundness…. These stories, plus
Futurist’s Reading List, Click of the Month, and more, in the 10th
Anniversary issue of Futurist Update.
The Singularity,
Explored We talk to
Michael Vassar of the Singularity Institute about the upcoming
summit, the Singularity, and the technological breakthroughs of tomorrow.
Futurist
Update for December Why Kilimanjaro may be
snowless within 20 years. … Why HIV/AIDS is hitting young women hardest. …
Why cute is the new cool. … These stories and more in the December 2009
issue of Futurist Update.
November 2009 Futurist Update Materialism in the
Nonmaterial World
Fire-Resistant Building Material
Doctors’ Attitudes May Affect Obese Patients’ Health
Click of the Month: Trends Map
News for the Futurist Community
What’s Hot @WFS.org: Futurist of the Year Nominations
Early Spring Warning: Blooms Too Soon?
Artificial Intelligence Aids Diagnosis
Denmark Offers Educational “Green” Vacations
Click of the Month: Futurity
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG
SEPTEMBER 2009 Futurist Update
Healthy Sex Life Improves Career Prospects
Online Textbook Lightens Backpacks
Life Expectancy Increases in U.S.
Click of the Month: Live Ethical Quote
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Futur
AUGUST 2009 Futurist Update
Skills Gap Is Widening
The End May Be Near for Big Tobacco
The Millennium Project’s Latest Projects
Click of the Month: The World Mind Network
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future
July 2009 Futurist Update Making Disasters Less
Disastrous
Earth Science Literacy
Rapid Virus Detection
Click of the Month: Engineer Your Life
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG
June 2009 Futurist Update Top 10 Long-Term
Challenges
Avatars That Look Like Us
Bright Prospects for Blue-Collar Careers
Living Life with Purpose
Click of the Month: Chicago 2016
What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
May Futurist Update
How we can become more secure through cooperation…. How we can better
predict freight traffic (and why it matters)…. How you can prepare for a
sudden medical emergency—yours or that of a loved one. These stories and
more in the May 2009 Futurist Update.
Preparing
for Pandemic What does flu pandemic
look like? In 2006 planers and strategists were asking this same question,
but the strain in question was H5N1, and the initial carriers were birds
rather than pigs. The guidelines proposed by the World Health Organization
at that time still provide a reliable picture of what government response to
a pandemic might entail.
APRIL 2009 Futurist Update Putting Professors
Back in the Classroom
Top Cities with Energy-Efficient Buildings
Reining in Local Government
Click of the Month: Economic Turning Point
News for the Futurist Community
What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
MARCH 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Economic Rebound Forecast for 2010
Long-Term Benefits of Recession-Proofing Strategies
Alaska Youth Success Stories
Antarctica's Accelerated Warming
Click of the Month: TeacherTube
News for the Futurist Community
FEBRUARY 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Half of Planet May Face
Food Crisis
Yardstick for Measuring Health
Darwin and Lincoln Bicentennials
Click of the Month: International Year of Astronomy 2009
News for the Futurist Community
JANUARY 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Decarbonizing
Energy
Workplace Trend Watcher’s Advice
Oceanic “Lab on a Chip”
Cracking Down on Scientific Fraud
Click of the Month: eHow
Editor's Query: Wild Cards
FUTURE TV
At the World Future
Society's 2009 conference, bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan explains that the
costs of human enhancement and longevity technologies should be weighed
against the costs of unhealthy people. "Unfairness" of access to these
technologies should also not be an argument against promoting their
development, says Caplan.
At the World Future Society 2009 conference, bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan
explains that eliminating the right to privacy carried in Roe v. Wade could
potentially allow government to mandate the use "designer baby"
technologies.
FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker tells CBS
correspondent Tracy Smith why the future is "okay" without flying cars.
Don
Tapscott address WorldFuture
2009
Don Tapscott, author
of Grown Up Digital, opens WorldFuture 2009 conference July 17, 2009,
describing how the Net Generation uses media.
Workplace futurist John A. Challenger, speaking at WorldFuture 2009, noted
that many of our concerns today, such as labor shortages, immigration,
retirement, and globalization, are not new trends, but the recession has put
them in a new context.
Don
Tapscott, author of Grown Up Digital, opens WorldFuture 2009 conference July
17, 2009, describing how the Net Generation uses media.
World Future Society
board member Jay McIntosh shares why he's excited about attending the 2009
annual meeting, to be held July 17-19 in Chicago, and what you can expect
once you're there.
THE
FUTURIST magazine's Top Ten Forecasts for 2009 and
Beyond.
Each year since
1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST have
selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook
report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the
emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet,
virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War. Here are
the editors' top 10 forecasts from
Outlook 2009.
TOP TEN
FORECASTS for 2008 and Beyondd
Each year since 1985, the editors of
THE
FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazineto go into our annual Outlook report.
Watch
the video on Youtube. Attn: Teachers and
instructors:
WMV or MOV Quicktime versions available for presentations upon
request.
The World Is Not Flat In the opening plenary
session of the World Future Society's 2008 annual meeting,
Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.,
takes on the
idea that "the world is flat".
Information Vs. Hate
Nate Garvis (VP, Target) describes the
impact of the Technology Effect on the rise of uncivil discourse and the
"outrage industry" as well as its more positive influence in creating
communities of disparate people around the globe. Excerpted from the
World Future Society's 2007 conference. Note, Mr. Garvis's comments were
made as an individual and not as a representative of Target.
Watch the Video on YouTube.
TOP TEN FORECASTS for 2008 and Beyond
Each
year since 1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST
have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook
report.Watch
the video on Youtube. . Blind Insight - Nat Irvin II at
WorldFuture 2007
In this WFS exclusive, business professor Nat Irvin II (University of
Louisville) tells a personal story about his partial blindness and his
insights as a futurist at the World Future Society's 2007 conference.
Watch here. Irvin will chair the
Society's 2008 conference in
Washington, D.C.
Personalized Medicine: Gregory
Stock at WorldFuture2007: UCLA researcher Gregory Stock looks at
the future of genomics and the cures of tomorrow.
Watch here.
"Drugs or Love? Helen Fisher at
WorldFuture 2007":
Helen Fisher discusses the future of sex,
love, and relationships at the World Future Society's conference in
Minneapolis.
Watch now.
The Top Ten Forecasts from
Outlook 2007-- a short film by C. Wagner. Watch the video now on
YouTube.
Attn: Teachers and instructors:
WMV or MOV Quicktime versions available for presentations upon
request.
