December 2012, Vol. 13, No. 12

Subject(s):

Futuring

In this issue

How Quickly Does Aging Occur? The "Methylome" Offers a Model
Predicting Ice Formation in the Arctic
Training New Thinkers for a More Complex World
What’s New @WFS
What's Hot in THE FUTURIST Magazine

How Quickly Does Aging Occur? The "Methylome" Offers a Model

Aging is an unevenly distributed process, affecting individuals differently and accelerating with disease and other stress factors. Even an individual’s organs may age at different rates, making it hard to predict when aging occurs.

Now, medical researchers believe they have found "a very robust way of predicting aging, " reports Kang Zhang, MD, of the University of California, San Diego, Institute for Genomic Medicine. In a new paper published in the journal Molecular Cell, Zhang and colleagues focus on how gene activity and expression are promoted or suppressed in the lifelong process of DNA methylation (where a methyl group is added or removed from the cytosine molecule in DNA).

The researchers measured methylation markers in blood samples of 656 persons ranging in age from 19 to 101, validating their model with hundreds of samples from another cohort. They concluded that mapping the entire "methylome" of these markers and changes across the genome offers a reliable way of predicting change over time. In other words, they can determine an individual’s actual biological age from a blood sample and predict rates of decay at the molecular level.

Such information could not only assist in forensics, but also improve therapies, according to Zhang. "For example," he notes, "you could serially profile patients to compare therapies, to see if a treatment is making people healthier and younger. You could screen compounds to see if they retard the aging process at the tissue or cellular level."

Source: University of California, San Diego Health Sciences

The research is published in the November 21, 2012, online edition of Molecular Cell. Read abstract.

Predicting Ice Formation in the Arctic

MIT researchers have created a model to predict where and how much Arctic sea ice will form in winter--critical considerations for navigators, hydrologists, and climatologists.

The model considers large, difficult-to-plot factors, such as how global ocean currents cause small ice sheets to merge into massive ice floes, sometimes hundreds of miles in diameter. The model also looks at interactions on a much smaller scale, such as how ice melting and forming affects the molecular composition of the water itself.

When sea ice melts in the spring it creates pockets of freshwater, which refreeze more easily in winter than does regular salt water. Understanding where these freshwater pockets will form in the spring is key to modeling the amount of ice that will reemerge when the temperature drops.

Over the last thirty years, the amount of sea ice over the Arctic in winter has shrunk tremendously, leading to conflicting forecasts for an ice-less Arctic during the summer months (the predictions for this milestone have ranged from 2050 to 2015).

Arctic ice, which reflects sunlight back into space, plays a critical role in global temperature. The researchers hope their model (really a synthesis of various models) will help climatologists better understand how climate change, ocean currents, and Arctic ice interact.

Source: MIT

Training New Thinkers for a More Complex World

Solving the world’s problems will demand thinkers who are schooled in "complexity science," assert the founders of the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) in New Mexico. For that reason, SFI is expanding its Omidyar Fellows program in 2013 to take in more students and offer them more opportunities to research and learn.

Omidyar Fellows complete three to five years of residence at SFI, during which they work alongside the institute’s scholars to advance the science of complex systems—how myriad sub-systems interrelate and cause changes within the larger systems that make up our economies, societies, and the natural world. Starting in 2013, the program will increase each class size by a third, to total 11-13 fellows per class; introduce new training and professional-development courses; and boost support for fellows’ travel and scientific collaboration.

"Through the SFI Omidyar Fellowship, we want to identify the most promising young postdoctoral scholars working on important problems, and provide them the skills, opportunities, and freedoms to become tomorrow’s Albert Einsteins, tomorrow’s Margaret Meads, tomorrow’s Murray Gell-Manns," said SFI president Jerry Sabloff.

SFI is also bringing complexity science to the general public with a free, online Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on introductory complexity-science theory. As SFI communications director John German notes, MOOCs are gaining popularity in higher education and "could very well topple the university system itself unless academic institutions get on board."

Source: Santa Fe Institute

What’s New @WFS

Business Summit in Mexico Focuses on Education and Futuring

At the annual Mexico Business Summit, held November 11-13, World Future Society President Timothy Mack discussed how best to tackle education reform as a way to stimulate and support economic growth in Mexico. The summit focused on "Energies for Developing Mexico" as it transitions under the leadership of incoming President Enrique Peña Nieto, who also spoke at summit.

Peña Nieto appears to be bringing serious futures work to the forefront of Mexican policy planning; he himself spoke at the World Future Society’s annual conference in 2008. And the recently ended Business Summit featured well-known futurist Paul Saffo as the opening plenary session speaker.

Mack also participated in a press conference during his visit, and was interviewed on the popular morning edition of the radio program, Enfoque Noticias, during which he predicted that Mexico’s growing economic strength will also change the nature of Mexico-U.S. relations.

Details: 2012 Mexican Business Summit program (PDF)

Mack’s interview with Leonardo Curzio on Enfoque Noticias Podcast

Four New Directors Offer Vision and Expertise to WFS Board

Receiving unanimous approval from the World Future Society’s directors, four outstanding thought leaders have accepted the Society’s invitation to join the Board.

Nancy Donovan, senior analyst at the U.S. Government Accountability Office, Center for Evaluation Methods, has worked with WFS conference organizers to develop programs offering increased value to officials in the public sector.
Joyce Gioia, president and CEO of The Herman Group and editor of its weekly newsletter, The Herman Alert, also serves as THE FUTURIST magazine’s contributing editor on Workforce/Workplace issues.
Carol D. Rieg, corporate foundation officer of Bentley Systems Inc., has volunteered for the Society in numerous capacities, including serving as the chair of the WorldFuture 2010 conference in Boston.
Les Wallace, president of Signature Resources Inc., is a specialist in tracking business environment and workplace trends, analyzing and anticipating their impacts on business and government.

Also joining the WFS team, as deputy conference director, is Dawn Tullis, who brings event-planning and relationship-marketing experience, plus organizational and networking savvy.

Advertisement

Announcing: WorldFuture 2013 Video Contest

The World Future Society is pleased to announce a video contest on the theme of Exploring the Next Horizon, in conjunction with the annual conference to be held July 19-21, 2013, in Chicago, Illinois. The grand prize will include a cash award and public showing of the winning video during the conference.

The conference theme was inspired by THE FUTURIST magazine’s special report, The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100 (September-October 2012). We therefore encourage entrants to explore these essays—forecasts, scenarios, timelines, tools, and questions—to inspire their own video presentations.

So come up with your most creative way to report on trends or tell a story about life in the year 2100. Possible approaches include an interview with an expert, a dramatization of a scenario, or a journalistic report on trends and forecasts. Animations welcome, too!

This contest is open to any group or individual age 16 or older (or submitted by a parent or legal guardian). Entrants may submit up to three videos, submitted separately. Deadline for all submissions is March 18, 2013.

For more information, see here.

What’s Hot in THE FUTURIST Magazine?

Outlook 2013

Human actions could become more accurately predictable, thanks to neuroscience. Nano-sized robots will deliver cancer-fighting drugs directly to their targets. And though many recently lost jobs may never come back, people will find plenty to do (and get paid for) in the future. These are just a few of the forecasts you’ll find in this latest edition of Outlook. Read more.

Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? The Cultural Crisis, 20 Years Later

By Richard Eckersley

In 1993, THE FUTURIST published author Richard Eckersley’s provocative essay, The West’s Deepening Cultural Crisis. Here, he looks back at what has happened since, and forward to what the next 20 years might hold. Read more.

In Search of the Better Angels of Our Future

By Kenneth B. Taylor

The ideologies that once guided us through political and economic conflicts— such as communism versus capitalism—have little relevance to cultures that face new, technologically driven conflicts over the very meaning of humanity. As we relentlessly pursue paradigm-altering technologies, we will need a new set of guidelines for understanding who we are and where we are heading. Read more.

Who Will Be Free? The Battles for Human Rights to 2050

By Josh Calder

As geopolitical power around the world shifts, so will the global consensus on human rights. There are challenges ahead, but the expansion of affluence, education, and digital technology may lead to a freer and more humane world in the long run. Read more.

The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers

By Edward E. Gordon

Too many tech jobs and not enough tech professionals to fill them—China, India, and the United States all face this dilemma. Here is what each economic powerhouse is—and should be—doing to ease its workforce gap, and a look at a successful strategy known as Regional Talent Innovation Networks, or RETAINS. Read more.

Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes

By Rick Docksai

A better future doesn’t happen on its own. We create it with our ideas, plans, and actions. In July, hundreds of futurists from around the world took the opportunity to dream, design, develop, and deliver the future together at WorldFuture 2012. Read more.