December 2010, Vol. 11, No. 12

In This Issue:

• What Stock Traders Can Learn in the Forest
• Global Warming of Lakes
• Growing Demand for Safer Food
• Jobs for World Changers
• Click of the Month: Superfluid
• What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

SEEING THE SIGNALS OF STRESS

Volatility in systems tend to precede crises. This phenomenon is observed in cancer and heart disease patients as well as in forests subject to environmental stressors, according to research led by mathematician Alexander Gorban of the University of Leicester in the U.K.

Similarly, monitoring the stresses in financial systems could help analysts foresee changes in stock market prices, as the systems adapt to changing conditions. Gorban’s team found that, as a crisis approaches, systems become more dependent on each other but react differently.

According to the study, stocks and share prices on the FTSE 100 during 2008 became more interdependent and volatile as that index declined; as the system failed to adapt to changing circumstances in the market, the system became less connected and more volatile, suggesting a crash.

SOURCE: University of Leicester http://bit.ly/e5XYa5

DETAILS: “Correlations, Risk and Crisis: From Physiology to Finance” by A. N. Gorban, E. V. Smirnova, and T. A. Tyukina, PHYSICA A (Vol. 389, Issue 16, 2010). Preprint: http://arxiv.org/abs/0905.0129

WARMING LAKES

Temperatures of the world’s 167 largest lakes have increased by an average of 0.8 degrees Fahrenheit per decade during the past 25 years, according to NASA researchers using satellite data to measure surface temperatures.

Though the trend is global, it is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere; the most warming has occurred in northern Europe, note the researchers.

Water temperature changes affect such phenomena as algal blooms, which can make lakes toxic to native fish or more hospitable to invading nonnative species, the researchers warn.

SOURCE: National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/nov/HQ_10-308_Global_Lakes.html

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OXFORD DIPLOMA IN STRATEGY AND INNOVATION

Four Modules: January, March, June, September (beginning 26th January 2011), Programme fee £15,000, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This part-time, masters-level Diploma for experienced executives focuses on strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship in an international business context. It will enable you to take effective strategic decisions and innovate for competitive advantage. Only a few places are left for the January 2011 start!

DETAILS/CONTACT: http://www.sbs.oxford.edu/Dipstrategy, sarah.hayton@sbs.ox.ac.uk

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DEMAND FOR FOOD-SAFETY PRODUCTS PROJECTED TO INCREASE

The demand for products that help ensure a safer food supply may see accelerating growth in the next three years, according to research by The Freedonia Group.

Disinfectants, diagnostic products, smart labels and tags, software, and tracking systems are among the sectors expected to see gains as consumer reaction to food contamination cases and stricter safety regulations contribute to growing demand.

Worldwide, demand for food-safety products grew at an average of 7.8% per year between 2004 and 2009; Freedonia projects this to increase to 8.1% per year between 2009 and 2014.

DETAILS: “World Food Safety Products” (November 2010, 315 pages) is available for $5,800 from The Freedonia Group Inc. http://www.freedoniagroup.com.

JOBS FOR WORLD CHANGERS

Can you get paid to change the world? Careers in public service are suddenly “cool” again, according to career services director Heather Krasna of the University of Washington’s Evans School of Public Affairs.

In her new book, JOBS THAT MATTER, Krasna defines “public service” jobs as not just government work, but also careers at universities and other learning institutions, as well as nonprofit and nongovernmental organizations and many segments of the private sector devoted to improving the world.

Krasna offers exercises for defining one’s dreams and clarifying the steps to achieve them and narrowing down the aspect of the world that you want to improve, such as children’s issues, civil rights, or urban development.

JOBS THAT MATTER by Heather Krasna (JIST Publishing, 2010, $14.95): http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1593577877/thefuturistbooks

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VISIONARIES SEEK ACTION AT WORLDFUTURE 2011!

The World Future Society’s conference WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action, to be held July 8-10, in Vancouver, British Columbia, will focus on developing specific action plans for meeting--and getting ahead of--the challenges we face now.

Approximately 150 speakers will offer their latest insights and strategies in governance, education, law enforcement, futures methodologies, marketing, and much more. Newly confirmed speakers include:

• Peter Bishop, associate professor in the College of Technology and director of the graduate program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, Clearwater, Texas
• Michael Buerger, faculty member at Bowling Green State University, member of the PFI/FBI Futures Working Group, Bowling Green, Ohio
• Timothy M. Daniel, chief, Strategy and Integration Office, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C.
• Sheila Murray, chair, Canadian committee for the Club of Rome, Ottawa, ON, Canada
• Ruben Nelson, executive director of Foresight Canada. He is Canada's most widely experienced teacher and practitioner of the next generation of strategic foresight. Lac des Arcs, AB, Canada
• Suzanne Stein, associate professor, Foresight, OCAD University, Toronto, ON, Canada
• Edie Weiner, vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., co-author, FUTURETHINK, New York, New York

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CLICK OF THE MONTH: SUPERFLUID

https://www.thesuperfluid.com/

Superfluid is a mechanism for providing “social currency,” hence facilitating the exchange of services via social networking.

Members of the network earn “Quids” through collaborative work; Quids may also be borrowed against future contributions of goods or services to other members.

Two levels of superfluid participation are available: Activities deemed to have commercial, monetary value are managed in superfluid:business while other, noncommercial activities are managed on the superfluid:p2p side.

Douglas Rushkoff, one of the World Future Society’s 2020 Visionaries (“Life Dollars: Finding Currency in Community,” THE FUTURIST, September-October 2010) is now chief officer of Superfluid.

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ATTENTION FUTURIST SHOPPERS!

As you’re shopping for the perfect gifts for friends, family, and colleagues, you can also give a gift to the World Future Society simply by using GoodShop and selecting WFS as your designated charity:

GoodShop: http://www.goodshop.com/?charityid=845602

Thank you for your support!

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WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG

* CHANGE IS GONNA COME: Beginning with the January 2011 edition, FUTURIST UPDATE, the World Future Society’s free e-mail newsletter, gets an all-new design, new content--and a new editor! As I step down to focus more on THE FUTURIST magazine, please join me in welcoming WFS communications director Patrick Tucker to the UPDATE helm.

* FUTURIST OF THE YEAR: Whose work in the past 12 months has contributed most to the field of futurism? Nominations for the Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year close on December 31. The award will be presented at WorldFuture 2011 in Vancouver on July 10. There is no fee to submit a nomination, nor is there a monetary award for the winner. GUIDELINES http://bit.ly/bVkJvi or http://www.wfs.org/content/edward-cornish-award-futurist-year

* ON THE BLOG ROLL: Don’t miss these thought-provoking posts by the Society’s growing roster of futurist bloggers. (Remember, World Future Society members may log in and comment freely on all blogs and articles):

“TWITTERING the Twitter Revolution Means It’s Not a Revolution,” observes Samuel Gerald Collins, reporting from the American Anthropological Association meeting. The focus on new technologies distracts us from what the tools are meant to be used for, he warns. READ MORE http://bit.ly/ic4twx, or http://www.wfs.org/content/twittering-twitter-revolution-means-it%E2%80%99s-not-revolution

- “APPLYING Futures Knowledge Consciously” requires an understanding both of the thinking process and of how the futures work is intended to be used. Alireza Hejazi explains the concept of "futures metacognition." READ MORE http://bit.ly/gZa5Tq or http://www.wfs.org/content/applying-futures-knowledge-consciously

- “THE EMERGENCE of a Global She-conomy” will have a major impact on everything from education to marketing and branding to fertility levels, says business futurist Erica Orange. READ MORE http://bit.ly/dNFbFU" or http://www.wfs.org/content/emergence-global-%E2%80%9Cshe-conomy%E2%80%9D

- “ANALYZING YOUR PERSONAL PLAN”: Personal-futures consultant Verne Wheelwright shows how to put the three parts of your plan together--vision, action, and contingencies. READ MORE http://bit.ly/gmWadW or http://www.wfs.org/content/analyzing-your-personal-plan

- “FROM CHARITY to Commitment and Action”: Reporting from a seminar on sustainable leadership at the Hunger Project in Sweden, Natascha Marxmeier offers ideas on how to make development assistance more effective. READ MORE http://bit.ly/e5Q2zM or http://www.wfs.org/content/charity-commitment-and-action-%E2%80%93-how-find-new-ways-development-assistance

- “GREAT RECESSION Shrinks Time Horizons--and Pantries,” observes David H. Rosen. Tightening the budget means not taking advantage of stocking up for the future, as consumers buy more on an as-needed basis. READ MORE http://bit.ly/gHr3E5 or http://www.wfs.org/content/great-recession-shrinks-time-horizons-and-pantries

- “THE FUTURIST PLAYLIST”: What do Bob Dylan, the Jonas Brothers, Robert Downey Jr., and Little Orphan Annie have in common? All are included in the semi-official Futurist Playlist of songs about the future, compiled by FUTURIST UPDATE departing editor Cindy Wagner. READ MORE http://bit.ly/fQpxQU" or http://www.wfs.org/content/futurist-playlist

JOIN OR RENEW your WFS membership now to join in the conversation! http://www.wfs.org/renew