In This Issue:
* Half of Planet May Face Food Crisis
* Yardstick for Measuring Health
* Darwin and Lincoln Bicentennials
* Click of the Month: International Year of Astronomy 2009
* News for the Futurist Community

HALF OF PLANET MAY FACE FOOD CRISIS

Humanity must adapt to climate change now or face food crises that will affect half the world’s population by 2100, warns a team of scientists led by David Battisti of the University of Washington, Seattle.

Rapid warming alters crop yields in both the tropics and subtropics, with the most-severe potential food shortages hitting the equatorial belt, home to the world’s fastest-growing and poorest populations. Water supplies are also affected by the climate, further imperiling food security, according to Battisti.

Studying historic food disruptions and temperature change, the researchers found that humanity has been able to adapt to conditions. In the future, however, food systems will need to be rethought completely, the researchers argue. For instance, wheat currently makes up one-fourth of the calories consumed in India, but wheat yields there have been stagnant for a decade.

“We have to be rethinking agriculture systems as a whole, not only thinking about new varieties but also recognizing that many people will just move out of agriculture, and even move from the lands where they live now,” says team member Rosamond Naylor, director of Stanford University’s Program on Food Security and the Environment.

SOURCE: University of Washington, Seattle
http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46272

YARDSTICK FOR MEASURING HEALTH

Twenty specific indicators of public health should be tracked by U.S. policy makers, recommends a new report by the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Tracking changes in these indicators over time will help determine the effectiveness of policies to promote Americans’ health and well-being.

The indicators include measures of health outcomes (life expectancy, infant mortality, injury-related mortality, psychological distress), measures of behavior (obesity, exercise routines, alcoholic consumption, condom use), and measures of institutional service provision (health insurance coverage, hospitalization rates, percentage of adults who are up-to-date in preventive screenings and immunizations).

The indicators are intended to give a broad picture of Americans’ overall health, which involves socioeconomic factors, such as income, race, ethnicity, and education, as well as environmental factors, such as pollution.

"This report takes an important step of capturing the health of the American people with a few key indicators," says committee chair George J. Isham, medical director and chief health officer of HealthPartners Inc. in Bloomington, Minnesota. "Given the gap between the relatively low performance and high costs of our health care system, data that is readily accessible on the Internet will be of great value in devising strategies to close this gap.”

SOURCE: Institute of Medicine, National Academies
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12534

DARWIN AND LINCOLN BICENTENNIALS

February 12, 2009, marks the 200th anniversaries of the births of two of history’s leading thinkers: Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln.

Among the organizations commemorating the Darwin bicentennial are:

* The Boston-based Darwin Bicentennial Project, which includes information on the MIT Darwin Symposium. “Though Darwin never corresponded with Lincoln, he and his family were abolitionists,” the Web site notes. “His grandfather, Josiah Wedgewood, was a leader of the abolitionist movement in Great Britain. Darwin followed the course of the US Civil War and expressed his hope for a Union victory in his correspondence with Harvard's Asa Gray.”
http://darwinbicentennial.org/

* Darwin Day is “a global celebration of science and reason.” The site features a countdown to February 12 and serves as a portal to a variety of commemorative events planned. http://www.darwinday.org/

* Darwin Project’s mission “is to speed the shift in our homes,
schools, and the media from only teaching destructive ‘first-half’ Darwinism to the inspiring liberation of Darwin's long lost completing half—along with all the fields of modern science that support and expand Darwin's original full vision to reveal caring, love, moral evolution, and education as the prime drivers for human evolution.” (Project founder David Loye’s page) http://www.thedarwinproject.com/loye/loye.html
http://www.thedarwinproject.com/home.html

And rallying the celebrations for Lincoln are:

* Lincoln Bicentennial, featuring background on Lincoln’s life and legacy, projects and contests for kids, a calendar of events, and more. http://www.lincolnbicentennial.gov

* Ford’s Theatre, which has undergone extensive restorations in time for reopening in February, with activities planned for the bicentennial, including Lincoln and Civil War related theatrical productions on the historic Ford’s stage.http://www.fordstheatre.org/home/performances-events/bicentennial-events

CLICK OF THE MONTH: International Year of Astronomy 2009

www.astronomy2009.org/

Are you looking forward to the solar eclipse on January 29? Anxious to find out what “dark matter” really is and how it affects the destiny of the universe and all its contents?

Check out the resources, networking opportunities, and news about research and activities in astronomy on this site devoted to the International Year of Astronomy 2009, an initiative of the International Astronomical Union and UNESCO.

The site includes a comprehensive astronomical calendar of events, both celestial and earthbound, future and historical (Galileo turns 445 on February 15), so you won’t miss any of the excitement.

You can also join your fellow astronomy lovers in a discussion forum on all the great events and research breakthroughs, and even get advice on telescopes and binoculars for amateurs.

OUTLOOK 2009

More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.

These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!

ORDER PDF or print copies:
http://www.wfs.org/specialreports.htm

NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

* WORKPLACE EXPERT AND WORLDFUTURE 2009 speaker John Challenger was interviewed on CNN.com to discuss rising unemployment. He advised people who had recently lost their jobs " It's so important to get a fast start. Be ready to learn something new, get into an entirely new industry to work part time in a job that may turn into a full time job."

* EUROPE CHAPTER FOR WFS: Plans are under way for the launch of a Europe Chapter of the World Future Society. The Chapter is scheduled to be launched at a special lunch at Restaurant Terminus Nord, Rue de Dunkerque, Paris, France, on Wednesday, February 18, 2009, at noon. All WFS members are cordially invited to attend. Please RSVP in order to allow us to inform the restaurant of numbers ahead of time. DETAILS and RSVP: or contact Stephen Aguilar-Millan at mailto:stephena@eufo.org
http://www.eufo.org/index_files/paris2009.htm

* SCENARIOS 2.0: Social Technologies recently unveiled its new scenario planning technique at a meeting at the Houston Technology Center in Houston, Texas. Led by futurists Andy Hines and Terry Grim, the event showcased Social Technologies’ new approach to scenario planning, using the future of work as a sample topic to demonstrate the process. DETAILS: Social Technologies
http://www.socialtechnologies.com/FileView.aspx?fileName=Scenarios 2.0.pdf

* FIGHTING HEALTH DISPARITIES: The Disparity Reducing Advances Project (the DRA Project) is a multi-year, multi-stakeholder project developed by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) to identify the most promising advances for bringing health gains to the poor and underserved and accelerating the development and deployment of these advances to reduce disparities. http://www.altfutures.com/draproject/

* STATE OF THE STATES REPORT: KEY TRENDS FOR 2009 The Pew Center on the States has released its forecasts for the key trends affecting state governments in the United States for the year ahead. As policy makers hone in on budget issues in a time of economic turmoil, State of the States directs attention to education, corrections and the criminal-justice system, Medicaid, energy, same-sex marriage, immigration, infrastructure, homelessness, and other social safety-net needs. http://www.stateline.org/live/publications/print-request