In This Issue:

* Predicting Future Happiness
* Gaming for Forecasters
* Growing Demand for Cosmetic Surgery Products
* Picking the Next U.S. President
* Click of the Month: CNET Editors' Office

PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS

Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accurately they predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE.

In a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in 1995-1996, participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with how life may be in another 10 years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.

Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in how individuals view both the past and the future; those age 65 and older rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the future and believed they would be more satisfied a decade hence.

"These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way of bracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve a protective function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if life circumstances turn out to be better than expected," says Lachman.

SOURCE: "Realism and Illusion in Americans' Temporal Views of Their Life Satisfaction," PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)

GAMING FOR FORECASTERS

A new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto, California.

The first game to be launched in the new Massively Multiplayer Forecasting platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions to superthreats such as global food shortages, mass homelessness, and pandemics. Other games will include earthquake simulations and care giving. The goals of the games are to "address real-world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds," according to the Institute.

Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold, "Massively multiplayer forecasting games is not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more experiential."

Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST (mailed to subscribers October 5).

SOURCES:
Institute for the Future, Play the Superstruct Game game here.

HANDLING COMPLEXITY WITH INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY

The theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009, is Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. Mark your calendars now! The conference will be held in Chicago at the beautiful Chicago Hilton hotel, July 17-19, 2009.

Among the forward-thinking experts you'll meet are Ian D. Pearson of Futurizon, formerly a futurologist for British Telecommunications; bioethicist Arthur D. Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania; Esther Franklin, executive vice president and director of cultural identities for Starcom MediaVest Group; Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial Consulting; Joseph R. Greene, former director of ICE, Office of Training and Development; and Mohan K. Tikku, director of the Centre for Future Studies in Gurgaon, India.

GROWING DEMAND FOR COSMETIC SURGERY PRODUCTS

The demand for cosmetic surgery products in the United States is expected to swell by 8.4% per year over the next four years, according to the Freedonia Group.

The trends contributing to this growth include an aging population, an increasingly competitive workforce, and greater social acceptance of cosmetic surgeries and products. Less-invasive surgeries requiring little or no recovery time will see the fastest growth, the company predicts.

Advances in silicone implants and other cosmetic technologies also reassure nervous customer-patients about the safety of procedures. And the introduction of Botox in the 1990s as a quick wrinkle reducer also helped accelerate growth in the injectables sector.

One potential negative factor in the U.S. cosmetic-surgery market is the impact of current economic hard times. Consumers seeking more affordable treatments may increasingly go overseas, limiting growth in the United States, Freedonia's report warns.

SOURCE: "Cosmetic Surgery Products" (2008, 261 pages, $4,600), The Freedonia Group Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, Ohio 44143. www.freedoniagroup.com

PICKING THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT

Research by two separate futures organizations offer help for Americans going to the polls in November to pick a new president.

In COMPARING CANDIDATES, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation offers a side-by-side comparison of the technology policy platforms of U.S. presidential candidates senators John McCain (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democrat). "Innovation drives long-term national economic growth and has in fact been responsible for 80% of the growth in the U.S. economy since World War II," according to ITIF. "This places technology and innovation squarely at the center of the issue—the economy—that voters have identified as the most important in the 2008 Presidential election."

DETAILS: ITIF,

And, in PICKING A PRESIDENT: CHARISMA OR COMPETENCE? an article available for download from his Web site, business consultant and futurist Karl Albrecht summarizes a research project that sheds light on the way Americans choose their presidents.

According to Albrecht, the electorate needs a better way to choose its leaders than asking questions like, Does the candidate have sufficient experience?–a weak predictor of success, according to many historians. A better question, he believes, would focus on the necessary traits of character and competence the candidate possesses.

DETAILS

CLICK OF THE MONTH: Live Tech Support at CNET's "Editors' Office"

http://cnettv.cnet.com/editors-office-hours

The popular online consumer electronics site CNET, a division of CBS Interactive, has launched a new live show, "Editor's Office Hours." The live daily 30-minute show will feature a CNET editor offering advice on popular high-tech gadgets, trends, troubleshooting, and more.

"Our editors receive hundreds of e-mails from users who want answers to their burning tech questions, from specific tech product recommendations to learning more about how to get the most of their tech gadgets," says CNET content VP Scott Ard.

The program streams Monday through Friday from 11:30 a.m. to noon Pacific time.