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Bibliography
Only a few of the many books dealing with the future can be listed here. Selection criteria include recency of publication, trustworthiness of the author, readability, and usefulness to non-specialists. Certain classic works have also been included, as well as a few other books not fully meeting the selection criteria but still likely to be of interest to readers. Information on the most recent books is available on the World Future Society’s Web site (wfs.org), which also provides information through Future Survey, a monthly newsletter describing and commenting on the latest books and articles dealing with the future and major public-policy issues. Future Survey is the best available guide to current literature dealing with the future and is available by subscription.
Anderson, Walter Truett. All Connected Now: Life in the First Global Civilization. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 2001.
The author argues that globalization is nothing new. "It is as old as the first migrations out of Africa." He sees it as both desirable and inevitable, a final product of human evolution.
Anderson, Walter Truett. The Future of the Self: Inventing a Post-Modern Person. New York: Penguin Putnam, 1997.
This is an example of the numerous thoughtful books in which Anderson probes the social and psychological issues of modern life. The Future of the Self deals with how people are changing in the most intimate part of themselves—the self. Other noteworthy books by Anderson include To Govern Evolution and Reality Isn’t What It Used to Be.
Ashley, William C., and James L. Morrison. Anticipatory Management: 10 Power Tools for Achieving Excellence into the 21st Century. Vienna, Virginia: Issue Action Publications, 1995.
Designed mainly for business executives, this book discusses ten "power tools," including Surfacing and Challenging Assumptions, Strategic Trend Intelligence System, Issue Life Cycle, Issues Vulnerability Audit, Issue Briefs, Delphi Rating Method, Ten-Step Issue Management Process, Issue Accountability Model, Issue Analysis Worksheet, and Scenario Technique.
Austin, William J. Strategic Planning for Smart Leadership: Rethinking Your Organization’s Collective Future through a Workbook-based, Three-level Model. Stillwater, Oklahoma: New Forums Press, 2002.
Practical guidance for organizational planning.
Barker, Joel Arthur. Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future. Reprint edition. New York: Harper Business, 1993.
A business consultant applies Thomas Kuhn’s paradigm-shift theory to business innovation.
Barry, Bryan W. Strategic Planning Workbook for Nonprofit Organizations. Revised and updated. St. Paul, Minnesota: Amherst H. Wilder Foundation, 1997.
Step-by-step guidance for developing a realistic plan for an organization’s future. This handbook includes reproducible worksheets designed to help you develop the plan, involve others in the process, and measure results. Topics covered include the critical ingredients of a sound plan, strategies to address problems and opportunities, a detailed sample of one organization’s strategic plan, and information on how various organizations can use strategic planning.
Becker, Ted, and Christa Daryl Slaton. The Future of Teledemocracy. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 2000.
A detailed discussion of actual experience with "televoting" systems, prospects for the future, and the implications for society.
Bell, Daniel. The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting. New York: Basic Books, 1973.
Sociologist Bell argues that people can make meaningful forecasts about the future of modern society if they take the trouble to understand fully the present conditions of that society and the trends visibly at work in it. Scholarly and well-documented, this book offers a thoughtful analysis of a number of major trends that Bell sees at work. This book popularized the term "post-industrial society"—a term Bell used to differentiate the new society from the industrial society without attempting to give it a more specific label until more is known about it. Other scholars, Bell suggests, may be jumping the gun by labeling the new society a "communications society," an "information society," or whatever.
Bell, Daniel, ed. Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1968. Reprint, with a new preface, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997.
This is the first report of the Commission on the Year 2000, formed in 1965 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and chaired by sociologist Daniel Bell. The volume summarizes the dialogue that occurred at the working sessions of the Commission in October 1965 and in February 1966. The book also includes a number of papers ranging from Leonard J. Duhl’s ideas on planning to David Riesman’s Thinking on Meritocracy. This book is a highly compact compendium of stimulating ideas, though it is now mainly of historical interest.
Bell, Wendell. Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. Volume 1: History, Purposes, and Knowledge. Volume 2: Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 1997.
This comprehensive scholarly overview of the most important aspects of futures studies—history, methods, theories, and principal practitioners—brings together the intellectual tools for thinking seriously about the future. Volume 1 deals with the history and purposes of futures studies, basic assumptions and epistemology, methods and exemplars. Volume 2 covers values, practical strategies for judging preferable futures, and the good society. The author, a Yale sociology professor and noted scholar, is evenhanded in his judgments and keen in his insights. This well-referenced volume is strongly recommended as an authoritative guide and belongs in every serious futurist’s library. However, casual readers may be intimidated by the academic social scientific approach.
Bellamy, Edward. Looking Backward, 2000-1887, 1888.
One of the most popular utopian books ever written, this description of Boston in the year 2000 became an international best seller following its publication in 1888 and led to the establishment of Bellamy groups in many countries around the world. Bellamy, an American journalist, foresaw electric lights, equal rights for women, radio and television, and aircraft. His success as a forecaster, like that of the Marquis de Condorcet, derives largely from his belief in continued progress in technology, growing affluence, and greater individual freedom. Today’s readers may not find his book very exciting, in part because of its quaint style and also because many of the innovations he anticipated have become commonplace.
Berry, Adrian. The Next 500 Years: Life in the Coming Millennium. New York: W. H. Freeman, 1996.
A British science writer and fellow of Britain’s Royal Astronomical Society offers an optimistic and imaginative view of the possibilities of the future, emphasizing technology and outer space.
Bezold, Clement, Jerome A. Halperin, Jacqueline L. Eng, eds. 2020 Visions: Health Care Information Standards and Technologies. Based on 1992 conference sponsored by the U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention Inc. Rockville, Maryland: USPC, 1993.
This book provides a clear, readable description of the use of futuring as a means of guiding executives and professionals in the pharmaceutical and health-care industries. Bezold is president of the Institute for Alternative Futures in Arlington, Virginia.
Boulding, Kenneth E. The Meaning of the Twentieth Century: The Great Transition. New York: Harper and Row, 1964.
This classic work by the late economist and social thinker argues that mankind is in a transition from civilized to "post-civilized" society and needs to avoid four "traps": (1) the war trap ("A major nuclear war would unquestionably set back the transition to a post-civilized world by many generations"); (2) the population trap (attempts to help people through medical services, says Boulding, could lead to disastrous overpopulation); (3) the technological trap ("Technology at the present time, even the highest technology, is largely dependent for its sources of energy and materials on accumulations in the earth which date from its geological past. In a few centuries, or at most a few thousand years, these are likely to be exhausted"); and (4) the entropy trap (borrowing a term from thermodynamics, Boulding suggests that the human potential may gradually diminish). To avoid these traps, Boulding believes that man should use all his intellectual resources to create an image of the future and a set of long-range goals that would reflect the infinite possibilities of the future.
Boulding, Kenneth E., and Elise Boulding. The Future: Images and Processes. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications, 1995.
A collection of essays by two scholars who devoted many years to thinking about the future. Topics include images of the future, "future-creating" workshops, and women’s and peace issues.
Boyer, William H. Myth America: Democracy vs. Capitalism. New York: The Apex Press, 2003.
The author, a professor emeritus in philosophy at the University of Hawaii, discusses the conflict between corporate power in America and the needs of a democratic society to achieve a just and sustainable future. An activist and community organizer, the author created a movement to provide legal rights for future generations.
Branch, Melville C. Comprehensive Planning for the 21st Century: General Theory and Principles. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1998.
A practicing planner and retired professor of planning explains the basic principles of planning that all complex organizations must consider to embrace and shape change. This is not an entertainment but a reliable textbook offering a useful introduction to planning.
Branch, Melville C. Simulation, Planning, and Society. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1997.
A leading scholar of urban and regional planning demonstrates how simulations are used throughout society as representations for what is being planned. Increasingly vital for decision making, simulations assist us in planning successfully in such wide-ranging concerns as medicine, the military, engineering, law, religion, business, government, and science and technology.
Brand, Stewart. The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility. New York: Basic Books, 1999.
Innovator-futurist Stewart Brand discusses plans to build a 10,000-year clock—a slow computer that will keep perfect time during the "long now." This future-oriented project serves as the starting point for his insightful reflections on the future.
Braun, Ernest. Technology in Context: Technology Assessment for Managers. New York: Routledge, 1998.
This comprehensive and accessible volume describes the role of technology assessment in the strategic management of business firms.
Brockman, John, ed. The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century. New York: Vintage Books (Random House), 2002.
Twenty-five visionary scientists foresee breakthroughs that will change the way we think, live, and learn. Contributors include astronomer Martin Rees, psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, computer scientist Jaron Lanier, physicist Paul Davies, and biologist Richard Dawkins.
Broderick, Damien. The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies. New York: Forge, 2001.
Broderick, an Australian science writer, predicts that, by 2030-2050, developments in computers, genetics, and nanotechnology will produce a period of high-speed change on a scale that humans have never experienced. He expresses doubts, however, about an end-of-the-world "singularity." The author is a noted critic and scholar with an interdisciplinary doctorate in literature and science.
Brown, Lester R. Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton, 2003.
Using the earth’s natural assets with little regard for the economic and environmental consequences is not going to work much longer. Soon the environment will burst, resulting in massive food shortages, rising global temperatures, and worldwide water deficits. Brown’s rescue plan (Plan B) envisions deflating the bubble economy by rethinking taxes and subsidies, creating a market that accurately reflects the worth of natural commodities, and taking action at wartime speed to stave off accelerating degradation. Brown’s many books—of which this is only a recent example—have consistently been perceptive and readable as well as solidly grounded in his long experience with global environmental and economic issues.
Bryson, John M., and Robert C. Einsweiler, eds. Strategic Planning: Threats and Opportunities for Planners. Chicago: American Planning Association Planners Press, 1988.
This is a book for people seriously interested in planning. It offers a critical examination of strategic planning approaches for public agencies and nonprofit organizations, and outlines concepts, procedures, and tools that can help planners, managers, administrators and policy makers cope with an increasingly complicated and interconnected world.
Bury, J.B. The Idea of Progress. New York: Macmillan, 1932.
In this celebrated book, a British historian describes the development of the notion of progress from its origins in Cartesianism to its efflorescence in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Belief in progress led writers such as the Marquis de Condorcet to try to anticipate what the improved future world would be like and thus opened the way for serious thinking about the future.
Capezio, Peter. Powerful Planning Skills: Envisioning the Future and Making It Happen. Franklin Lakes, New Jersey: Career Press, 2000.
This book offers excellent guidance on improving the specific steps in planning: developing a vision, defining project goals, brainstorming ideas, forecasting, contingency planning, reviewing progress, managing change, etc.
Cartmill, Robert H. The Next Hundred Years...Then and Now. Philadelphia: Xlibris Corporation (www.xlibris.com), 2002.
The first half of this book presents a review of the world of 1900 together with a critique of forecasts made at that time for the long-term future. The book’s second half reviews a variety of forecasts made around 2000 for the twenty-first century.
Cetron, Marvin J., and Owen Davies. American Renaissance: Our Life at the Turn of the 21st Century. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1989.
Though now dated, this book correctly anticipated many of the developments seen in the years since, from the general prosperity of the 1990s to the continuing spread of evangelical Christianity in America. It remains a good example of systematic and successful trend analysis.
Cetron, Marvin J., and Owen Davies. Cheating Death: The Promise and the Future Impact of Trying to Live Forever. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1998.
In the years ahead, the human life span may be dramatically lengthened, with humans living to several centuries or even more. The consequences of "cheating death" could be devastating for society, the economy, the environment, and family life, the authors believe.
Cetron, Marvin J., and Owen Davies. Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1997.
This look at near-term future advances discusses computers, telecommunications, high-speed railroads, planes able to fly around the world in four hours, extremely cheap production of consumer goods, and solutions to environmental problems.
Cetron, Marvin J., and Thomas O’Toole. Encounters with the Future: A Forecast of Life in the Twenty-First Century. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1982.
This first general-interest book by Cetron, a pioneer of modern forecasting, explored a variety of social and technological developments that seemed likely to occur in the coming decades.
Christakis, Nicholas A. Death Foretold: Prophecy and Prognosis in Medical Care. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
Physicians need to predict the likely outcome of alternative medical treatments for patients and also answer many predictive questions such as "How long before this tablet relieves my headache?" A wrong answer may disappoint a patient or embarrass the doctor. Most feared of all is the question, "How long do I have to live?" This book offers an interesting perspective on forecasting from the standpoint of medical practitioners.
Claeys, Gregory, and Lyman Tower Sargent, eds. The Utopia Reader. New York: New York University Press, 1999.
This well-edited anthology includes excerpts from writers describing imaginary ideal conditions on earth or elsewhere. The authors range from ancient Greeks and Romans to modern Americans. The volume is noteworthy for the wide variety of its materials; however, the sources are limited to Europe, the Near East, and America.
Clarke, Arthur C. Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds! Collected Essays 1934-1998. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1999.
These essays reflect the long career of a futurist with many achievements, including the concept of communications satellites, the motion picture 2001: A Space Odyssey, inspiring Gene Roddenberry’s creation of the Star Trek series, and numerous books, such as the futurist classic Profiles of the Future.
Clarke, Arthur C. Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible. Rev. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1984.
A slightly revised edition of a book first published in 1962. This is one of the classics of futurist literature. The author methodically explores the fantasies of science fiction, such as the obsolescence of gravity and the colonization of the solar system, to determine what is really and truly impossible and what may indeed be accomplished by determined technologists. Exceptionally well written and scientifically balanced, the book presents the author’s imaginative forecasts for the next 150 years.
Clarke, I.F. The Pattern of Expectation 1644-2001. London: Jonathan Cape, 1979.
This is an excellent scholarly history of people’s ideas about the future, focusing particularly on Europe over the past three centuries. The book emphasizes literary speculations, including not only those of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells but the works of many authors whose names have been long forgotten. Also included are illustrations showing how artists (mainly nineteenth century) envisioned the future.
Cleveland, Harlan. Nobody in Charge: Essays on the Future of Leadership. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2002
A collection of fifteen essays by one of the most renowned thinkers and insightful writers on leadership of our time. Cleveland’s exploration of what the accelerated spread of knowledge, enhanced by computers and global telecommunications, means for leaders in the twenty-first century is founded on more than fifty years’ experience observing and participating in management and leadership. His essays are thought-provoking and inspiring—a must-have for tomorrow’s leaders.
Coates, Joseph F., and Jennifer Jarratt. What Futurists Believe. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 1989.
The authors did in-depth interviews of seventeen futurists, including Daniel Bell, Kenneth E. Boulding, Arthur C. Clarke, Governor Richard Lamm, Dennis Meadows, and Peter Drucker, and then carefully analyzed and synthesized their views. One technique used in the book is to dissect out the views of all the interviewees on a given topic, such as energy, and then present them together so that similarities and differences stand out.
Coates, Joseph F., John B. Mahaffie, and Andy Hines. 2025: Scenarios of U.S. and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Winchester, Virginia: Oakhill Press, 1996.
Members of the Coates & Jarratt consulting firm in Washington, D.C., offer fifteen scenarios suggesting possible effects of science and technology on the world to come. Based on a three-year research project, these scenarios cover over fifty fields of science, technology, and engineering.
Condorcet, Marquis de. Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind. 1795. Translated by June Barraclough. New York: The Noonday Press, 1955.
An eighteenth-century French nobleman’s forecast, which accurately predicted the abolition of slavery, the rise of the Americas in world affairs, and other events. Condorcet has been hailed as the most successful forecaster in history.
Conway, McKinley. Three Tomorrows. Norcross, Georgia: Conway Data, 2004.
Mingling fact and fiction, this book offers numerous forecasts for the years out to 2050. It is particularly strong in discussing large-scale engineering projects that may be attempted in the years to come.
Corn, Joseph J., ed. Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology, and the American Future. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1986.
A lively and informative look at the future as it was envisioned in the American past. Separate essays show how people thought radio, nuclear energy, plastics, homes, skyscrapers, computers, and electric lights would develop. One essay looks at the utopian visions that found expression in the world’s fairs of the 1930s.
Corn, Joseph J., and Brian Horrigan. Yesterday’s Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future. New York: Summit Books, 1984.
This beautifully illustrated book shows past visions of the community of tomorrow, the home of tomorrow, the transportation of tomorrow, and the weapons and warfare of tomorrow. Included are nineteenth-century etchings of future apartment houses; an underground city envisioned in a popular magazine of the 1920s; scenes of the 1939 World’s Fair, billed as "The World of Tomorrow"; and more recent visions of cities located in the sky.
Cornish, Edward. The Study of the Future. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 1977. (Out of print; replaced by the present text.)
This general introduction to futurism and future studies discusses the history of the futurist movement, ways to introduce future-oriented thinking into organizations, the philosophical assumptions underlying studies of the future, methods of forecasting, current thinking about what may happen as a result of the current revolutionary changes in human society, etc. A special feature of the book is five- to seven-page biographies of notable futurists such as Margaret Mead, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Herman Kahn, Arthur C. Clarke, and Daniel Bell.
Dash, Leon. Rosa Lee: A Mother and Her Family in Urban America. New York: Basic Books, 1996.
A Washington Post reporter tells the story of a mother living on welfare and petty crime in the slums of Washington, D.C. Six of her eight children followed her into welfare and crime, but two chose to make a different life for themselves—and did so. This Pulitzer Prize winning investigation showed how people in appalling circumstances can choose a better future for themselves.
Dator, James A., ed. Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 2002.
A collection of twenty-eight essays bearing on futures studies, with an introduction by the editor, a long-time professor of political science at the University of Hawaii. The contributors are almost exclusively professors who have been active in futures studies. The well-informed papers will mainly interest those teaching futures studies or interested in doing so.
Davidson, Frank P., with John Stuart Cox. Macro: A Clear Vision of How Science and Technology Will Shape Our Future. New York: William Morrow, 1983.
Though now dated, this book remains an excellent introduction to macro-engineering—large-scale engineering projects. The author, long active in the American Society for Macro-Engineering, served as the first president of the Institute for the Future, now located in Menlo Park, California.
de Jouvenel, Bertrand. The Art of Conjecture. Monaco: Editions du Rocher, 1964; Rev. New York: Basic Books, 1967.
This classic of futurist literature discusses basic concepts of thinking about the future. De Jouvenel rejects the notion that there can be a "science of the future," and calls for the study of ideas about what may happen in the future as a means of deciding what actions to take in the present.
Denning, Peter J., ed. The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology into Everyday Life. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002.
Eighteen chapters by such authors as Ray Kurzweil, Alan Kay, David Baltimore, and Michael Dertouzos on virtual reality, "ambient intelligence," and other technologies changing our lives in different ways.
Dewar, James A. Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises. Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2002.
Strategic planner James A. Dewar directs RAND’s Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. In his book, he emphasizes the importance of identifying key assumptions in planning and hedging to prevent trouble if these assumptions prove vulnerable. Readable and authoritative, the book should be especially useful to practicing planners.
Diamond, Jared. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. New York: W.W. Norton, 1997.
Diamond argues that environmental factors are primarily responsible for history’s broadest patterns, helping to explain such things as the development of agriculture in the Middle East, European colonization of the Americas, and the enormous diversity and primitiveness of cultures in New Guinea. In the context of this fascinating explanation for the technological and material success and/or failure of certain cultures, Diamond argues strongly that history can be a science, though he concedes that certain human personalities do play a significant role in shaping events.
Diderot, Denis. Encyclopédie, ou Dictionnaire Raisonné des Sciences, des Arts, et des Métiers. Paris, 1763. Selections edited with notes and introduction by Charles Coulston Gillispie. A Diderot Pictorial Encyclopedia of Trades and Industry. 2 vols. New York: Dover Publications, 1959.
The engravings in these volumes provide a fascinating look at what manufacturing was like before the Industrial Revolution.
Didsbury, Howard F., Jr., ed. Frontiers of the 21st Century: Prelude to the New Millennium. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 1999.
This collection of twenty papers presented to the 1999 General Assembly deals with such topics as the future of God, information technology, genetic engineering, utopias, and the next thousand years.
Didsbury, Howard F., Jr., ed. 21st Century Opportunities and Challenges: An Age of Destruction or An Age of Transformation. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 2003.
Prepared for the Society’s 2003 conference, this volume provides an excellent introduction to current thinking among leading futurists. The thirty authors (twenty-six papers) include Wendell Bell, Lynn Elen Burton, Vary T. Coates, Amitai Etzioni, Theodore J. Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn, Hazel Henderson, J. Østrøm Møller, Arthur B. Shostak, Richard A. Slaughter, David P. Snyder, Allen Tough, and Ian Wilson.
Diebold, John. Technology and Social Policy: Meeting Society’s 21st Century Needs. Quincy, Massachusetts: Management Science Publishing Co., 1997.
A visionary leader in the use of technology to meet human social needs, the author here addresses such issues as getting innovation into politics, finances, railroads, organizations, and more. In 1952, Diebold published a book entitled Automation and thus popularized the word he invented for what was happening in leading-edge industries.
Dyson, Freeman. Imagined Worlds. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1997.
A physicist-astronomer offers a wide-angle view of science and science-fiction speculation. He envisions humans spreading out over the universe, taking on different forms as they adapt genetically to different environments.
Easterbrook, Gregg. The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse. New York: Random House, 2003.
Life has improved in the past century, even in the developing world: more food, more money, better health care, etc. Yet many people feel life is getting worse, and the author asks why that should be. One problem is that prosperity does not necessarily bring happiness. But there’s much more to be said, and the book makes an interesting and thought-provoking read.
Ellul, Jacques. The Technological Bluff. Grand Rapids, Michigan: William B. Eerdmans Publishing Co., 1990.
A French Calvinist continues his long war against modern technological society. Ellul became famous for his 1954 book La Technique, translated into English as The Technological Society.
Emery, Merrelyn, and Ronald E. Purser. The Search Conference: A Powerful Method for Planning Organizational Change and Community Action. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1996.
The search conference is a participative approach to planned change that engages the collective learning and creativity of large groups, such as corporations, professional associations, or even cities. This book offers a wealth of illustrative examples for using search conferences to plan the future.
Fagan, Brian. The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization. New York: Basic Books, 2004.
Technological progress may be driving most change in human life today, but climate change, such as global warming, could become increasingly important in the future. Anthropologist Fagan explains how scientific discoveries in recent years have revealed historic climate shifts that have had enormous consequences for human life.
Fahey, Liam, and Robert M. Randall, eds. Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. New York: Wiley, 1998.
Practitioners of scenario methods describe their techniques. Twenty-five well-chosen and edited essays provide an excellent introduction to the contemporary use of scenarios. Authors include Peter Schwartz, Jay Ogilvy, Ian Wilson, and Stephen Millett.
Ferkiss, Victor. The Future of Technological Civilization. New York: George Braziller, 1971.
A political science professor calls for a new world view, "ecological immanentism," in order to bring about the peaceful revolution needed for human development on a finite planet. He argues that "the essence of humanity’s current crisis is that we have allowed our collective destiny to be determined by the political philosophy usually called liberalism, which holds that the prime purpose of society is to encourage individual self-aggrandizement." In addition to liberalism, Ferkiss attacks other conventional ideologies such as Marxism, socialism, and anarchism. None of these ideologies, Ferkiss believes, can possibly cope with the crisis now gripping the world. But mankind can survive, he argues, through an "immanent revolution" that will involve a radical restructuring of society.
Ferkiss, Victor. Nature, Technology, and Society: Cultural Roots of the Current Environmental Crisis. New York: New York University Press, 1993.
A wide-ranging, historical study by a noted political scientist of people’s attitudes toward nature and technology. Concisely written and highly informative, the volume serves as an excellent historical briefing for understanding the environmental issues that now face us.
Flechtheim, Ossip K. History and Futurology. Meisenheim am Glan, Germany: Verlag Anton Hain, 1966.
This collection of essays by a professor of political science who taught in the United States and Germany is now mainly of historical interest. Ossip Flechtheim published a prophetic article entitled "Teaching the Future" in a relatively obscure U.S. publication in 1943. In this article he called for the development of courses dealing with the future. Later he published other articles on what he called "futurology." This volume of essays, written primarily between 1941 and 1952, is about equally divided between history and futurology. During the late 1960s, the author founded the German journal Futurum, a scholarly journal devoted to studies of the future.
Fogg, C. Davis. Team-Based Strategic Planning: A Complete Guide to Structuring, Facilitating, and Implementing the Process. New York: AMACOM, 1994.
How to structure strategic planning, facilitate the process, and use teamwork smoothly and productively. Includes actual procedural steps, plans for facilitators, and extensive lists of dos and don’ts.
Forrester, Jay W. World Dynamics. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Wright-Allen Press, 1971.
Jay Forrester, long-time professor of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, developed a technique known as "system dynamics" to simulate the functioning of factories, cities, and the world as a whole. The simulation of world trends indicated that catastrophe looms if man does not drastically slow down the growth of population and industrialization. Forrester’s colleague, Dennis Meadows, used system dynamics in the Limits to Growth study that was widely discussed in the early 1970s.
Fowles, Jib, ed. Handbook of Futures Research. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1978.
This collection of writings by forty-six futurists, including Arthur C. Clarke, Herman Kahn, Victor Ferkiss, and Theodore Gordon, is a treasure house of ideas about the future. Though now dated, this scholarly book has been skillfully edited and can be used with profit by almost anyone interested in the future.
Fukuyama, Francis. Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2002.
The author worries that if we don’t stop tinkering with human biology we may enter a "posthuman" future in which "freedoms" have run amok. What will happen as parents are free to choose the kind of children they have and entrepreneurs are free to pursue the technology for profit? Fukuyama also frets about human embryos, which now have "a moral status somewhere between that of an infant and that of other types of cells and tissues." To what extent are we willing to create and grow embryos for utilitarian purposes?
Gabor, Dennis. Inventing the Future. New York: Knopf, 1964.
Dennis Gabor, a Nobel Prize winning physicist, popularized the phrase "inventing the future." He argues that it is not possible to predict what will happen in the future, but it is possible to create the future through imagination and effort. In this book, Gabor argues that civilization faces three dangers: nuclear war, overpopulation, and "the age of leisure." Gabor suggests that man may be able to cope with the first two dangers more easily than with the third, because of its novelty. In recent decades, man has moved rapidly toward the abolition of work but has done little to prepare himself for leisure. Gabor argues for more creative imagination both in short-range social engineering and in long-term visions of the future.
Galtung, Johan, and Sohail Inayatullah, eds. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1997.
A compact and valuable introduction to macrohistory. Separate chapters discuss a score of macrohistorians (Hegel, Marx, Spengler, Toynbee, and others). These big-picture historians do not provide very usable guidance to the future, the editors decided.
Gardner, John W. Self-Renewal: The Individual and the Innovative Society. Rev. New York: W.W. Norton, 1981.
In this modern classic, Gardner explains why some individuals and societies atrophy and decay while others remain innovative and creative. Topics discussed include innovation, obstacles, commitment, and meaning; attitudes toward the future; and moral decay and renewal.
Gates, Bill, with Nathan Myhrvold and Peter Rinearson. The Road Ahead. New York: Viking, 1995.
After telling how his 1974 vision of the future led to his becoming the world’s richest man, Gates gives his new vision of the future: Rapid progress in computers and telecommunications will produce good things for everybody. He admits to a few worries: power failures and the loss of privacy. (He envisions people using videocameras to document every moment of their lives to guard against criminal charges.) This is a readable and informative book by someone whose expertise is heavily credentialed by his wealth.
Gelernter, David, 1939: The Lost World of the Fair. New York: Free Press, 1995.
"The World of Tomorrow" was the theme of the 1939 New York World’s Fair. Yale professor Gelernter’s vivid account of that Fair and its visions of the future includes an assessment of the subsequent success of the Fair’s anticipations of what would happen in the following years.
Georges, Thomas M. Digital Soul: Intelligent Machines and Human Values. Boulder, Colorado, and Oxford, England: Westview Press, 2003.
An inquiry into the implications of machine intelligence and human values. The author explains how humans can make machines that are smarter than their designers, and analyzes such issues as: How will we distinguish "human" from "machine" in the future? What will happen if machines not only think but have emotions? What if machines become conscious? What rights will they have? A highly readable discussion of the profound questions that advancing machine intelligence is posing for human values.
Gibson, Rowan, ed. Foreword by Alvin and Heidi Toffler. Rethinking the Future. Naperville, Illinois: Nicholas Brealey Publishing, 1997.
This collection of essays by such noted business futurists as Charles Handy, John Naisbitt, Lester Thurow, Warren Bennis, Philip Kotler, and Peter Senge offers a cutting-edge look at the new paradigm. Businesses will need to rethink their basic principles as well as changes in competition, control and complexity, leadership, markets, and the world.
Gleick, James. Chaos: The Making of a New Science. New York: Viking 1987.
Though now dated, this may still be the best popular introduction to the science of chaos.
Gleick, James. Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything. New York: Pantheon, 1999.
The author of Chaos takes a hard look at today’s quick-reflexed, multi-tasking, channel-flipping, fast-forwarding society.
Glenn, Jerome C., and Theodore J. Gordon. Futures Research Methodology. Version 2.0. Paperback, with CD-ROM. Washington, D.C.: American Council for the United Nations University, 2003.
Some twenty-five methods and tools for forecasting and analyzing global change are provided in the latest version of this comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook. Chapters cover each method's history, primary and secondary uses, strengths and weaknesses, applications, and potential uses. The chapters are presented in both MS Word and PDF formats. Order from the publisher.
Godet, Michel. Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. London: Economica, 2001.
A general discussion of scenarios and other future-oriented issues by the head of a future-oriented group at the Paris-based National Conservatory of Arts and Professions (CNAM).
Halal, William E., ed. The Infinite Resource: Creating and Leading the Knowledge Enterprise. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1998.
Promising new concepts, lessons, and suggestions for leading the new organizational enterprise are here offered by some of the best minds in business and government. Among the contributors are Bell Atlantic CEO Raymond Smith, Indianapolis Mayor Stephen Goldsmith, and networking gurus Jessica Lipnack and Jeffrey Stamps.
Hammond, Debora. The Science of Synthesis: Exploring the Social Implications of General Systems Theory. Boulder, Colorado: University Press of Colorado, 2003.
Systems thinking, well documented in this scholarly text, is an important strain in modern scientific thought. Systems thinking emphasizes the relationships and interconnections in biological, ecological, social, psychological, and technical dimensions of human life. These interconnections become extremely important in thinking about the future.
Harper, Stephen C. The Forward-Focused Organization: Visionary Thinking and Breakthrough Leadership to Create Your Company’s Future. New York: AMACOM, 1999.
Management professor Stephen Harper offers a readable, practical guide to creating a forward-focused organization. He has digested much of the best thinking of the management gurus on strategic management and leading changes, and he neatly sums up many of their most useful insights. He devotes a full chapter to futuring.
Harrison, Lawrence E., and Samuel P. Huntington. Culture Matters: How Values Shape Human Progress. New York: Basic Books, 2000.
Two Harvard scholars present an excellent anthology of papers dealing with the influence of culture on economic progress. Thought provoking and readable. Harrison is the author of Underdevelopment Is a State of Mind. Huntington is widely known for his best seller, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Among the causes of underdevelopment are fatalism and negative attitudes toward the future.
Heilbroner, Robert. Visions of the Future: The Distant Past, Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow. New York: Oxford University Press and New York Public Library, 1995.
Stretching 50,000 years into the past and "who knows how many into the future," this gracefully written volume explores how humans have viewed the future. Heilbroner argues there have only been three ways to view the future: The first, which spans from the Stone Age to the 1700s, was that the future would be like the past; the second, spanning from the 1700s to about 1950, is that the future will be better than today; and the third, where we are today, is an ambivalent outlook.
Henderson, Hazel. Building a Win-Win World: Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 1996.
A provocative economist and futurist examines the havoc that the current economic system is creating globally. Even as new markets emerge worldwide, they are running on old textbook models that ignore social and environmental costs and that will inevitably lead to global economic warfare. Henderson shows how win-win strategies can bring stability and peace to our future.
Herman, Roger E., Thomas G. Olivo, and Joyce L. Gioia. Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People. Winchester, Virginia: Oakhill Press, 2002.
The authors foresee a dangerously growing shortage of skilled workers in the years ahead as well as a widening gap in worker skills. The book is designed mainly to provide practical advice for business executives. Herman and Gioia are strategic business futurists concentrating on workforce and workplace trends. Herman is a contributing editor to The Futurist magazine. Olivo is a recognized expert in measuring factors that affect bottom-line performance in organizations.
Hesselbein, Frances, Marshall Goldsmith, and Richard Beckhard, eds. The Organization of the Future. Drucker Foundation Future Series. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1997.
A collection of forty thoughtful essays on how organizations might reshape themselves for the coming years.
Hicks, David. Citizenship for the Future: A Practical Classroom Guide. Godalming, U.K.: WWF-UK, 2001
A resource book for teachers seeking to teach about environmental issues and the future.
Hicks, David. Lessons for the Future: The Missing Dimension in Education. London: RoutledgeFalmer, 2002.
This book by an outstanding British educator well-experienced in teaching young people about futuring is strongly recommended to educators.
Higgins, James M. 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques: The Handbook for New Ideas for Business. Winter Park, Florida: The New Management Publishing Co., 1994.
Highly readable, useful, and attractively presented descriptions of creative problem-solving methods, such as scenario writing, brainstorming, Delphi polling, use of analogies, role playing, etc.
Hoyle, John R. Leadership and Futuring: Making Visions Happen. Thousand Oaks, California: Corwin Press, a division of Sage Publications, 1995.
This short, readable book introduces the use of futuring and visioning mainly to teachers at the high-school level.
Hubbard, Barbara Marx. Conscious Evolution. Novato, California: New World Library, 1998.
This highly personalized vision of the human future describes humans evolving toward higher forms of being in which to express their creativity and life purpose. The author, one of the best-known visionaries of spiritual awakening, is founder and president of the Center for Conscious Evolution (San Rafael, California). Her book offers a five-stage plan for human salvation.
Hughes, Barry B. International Futures: Choices in the Creation of a New World Order. 2nd ed. Boulder, Colorado, and Oxford, England: Westview Press, 1996.
This book and the accompanying software help you to define and develop key concepts in demographics, economics, the environment, and other issues. You can use the software to develop alternative views of our global future.
Huxley, Aldous. Brave New World. New York: Harper Row, 1931.
A classic dystopian novel by a writer celebrated for social satires.
Inayatullah, Sohail, and Paul Wildman. Futures Studies: Methods, Emerging Issues and Civilisational Visions. CD-ROM. Brisbane, Australia: Prosperity Press, 1999.
What is the long-term future of humanity? Will civilizations violently clash, or are we on the verge of planetary governance? These and other critical questions about the future are addressed in this unique, multimedia CD-ROM. The presentation includes a Reader of methods, emerging issues, and visions; a Gallery of fractal images; a participatory Future Forum, and the Future Coffee Shoppe--an e-mail discussion group and hyper-achieving bulletin board through which you can e-mail authors, converse with other readers, and even initiate a collaboration for future editions. Completing the CD may also help you earn a diploma in futures studies.
Jensen, Rolf. The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1999.
The director of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies argues that the future of business lies not in selling products but in selling dreams and emotions. He identifies six markets: (1) the market for adventures; (2) the market for love, friendship, and togetherness; (3) the market for care (e.g., pets); (4) the who-am-I market (products that proclaim their owner’s identity, such as fashion, automobiles, and accessories); (5) the market for peace of mind; (6) the conviction market, which is also referred to as cause-related marketing ("green" products, worker welfare, etc.).
Johnston, William B., and Arnold H. Packer. Workforce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century. Indianapolis, Indiana: Hudson Institute, 1987.
This study, prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor, examines the forces shaping the American economy, such as the integration of the global economy, the shift from goods to services, and the proliferation of advanced technologies. Challenges for policy makers include finding ways to accelerate productivity increases in service industries, maintain the dynamism of an aging workforce, and reconcile the conflicting needs of women, work, and families.
Jones, Glenn R. Free Market Fusion: How Entrepreneurs and Nonprofits Create 21st Century Success. Denver, Colorado: Cyber Publishing Group, 1999.
Educational entrepreneur Jones, creator of Knowledge TV and the University of the Web, argues that the recipe for a strong economy in the twenty-first century will be to mix the unique capabilities of for-profit and nonprofit organizations. The book includes interviews with futurists Theodore Modis and Alvin and Heidi Toffler.
Jungk, Robert, and Johan Galtung, eds. Mankind 2000. London: Allen and Unwin, 1969.
This volume contains thirty-five papers from a 1967 conference on the future in Oslo. It is now mainly of historic interest for what it shows about futurist thinking when the movement was getting started.
Jungk, Robert, and Norbert Müllert. Future Workshops: How to Create Desirable Futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions, 1987.
Jungk ran his first "future-creating workshop" in 1962. Ideally, he decided a workshop lasts three days. Day 1 is devoted to a critique of the situation to be addressed. Day 2 focuses on fantasizing about ways to solve the problems being addressed. Day 3 reviews suggested solutions for practicality and getting action started. The editors conclude that the workshops are a remarkable tool for harnessing the creative forces within society.
Kahn, Herman, and Anthony J. Wiener. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. New York: Macmillan, 1967.
This volume summarizes the thinking of Herman Kahn and his Hudson Institute colleagues concerning the world of the future. At the time of its appearance, many futurists regarded the book as possibly the most impressive work then available in terms of its disciplined and penetrating attempt to identify and describe the major trends in Western society. The book describes the "basic, long-term multifold trend" in Western civilization, and projects economic and other trends to the end of the twentieth century.
Kahn, Herman, William Brown, and Leon Martel. The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World. New York: William Morrow and Company, 1976.
A highly optimistic view of America’s future: America will become increasingly wealthy, and the problems associated with shrinking supplies of fossil fuels and increasing pollution can be overcome.
Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century and Beyond. New York: Doubleday, 1997.
Physicist/science writer Kaku bases his book on interviews with more than 150 top scientists in many fields. He expects major research projects already under way to yield dramatic results between now and the year 2020, and these new findings should make possible wholly new technologies in the decades to 2050 and beyond.
Kelly, Kevin, Peter Leyden, and Members of the Global Business Network. What’s Next? Cambridge, Massachusetts: Perseus Publishing, 2002.
Selected quotes from twenty-two visionary scientists, business leaders, and futurists at a computer conference are organized into topic areas, including geopolitics, values and belief systems, science, technology, environment, civilization, and more.
Kiernan, Matthew J. The Eleven Commandments of 21st Century Management. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1996.
Tomorrow belongs to the smaller, more agile companies. Managers who are not already working in one had better start now to position their companies to succeed in a new business environment demanding constant innovation and creativity. Among the new commandments for managers are: Get innovative or get dead; use all of your people, all of their skills, all of the time; and turn organizational learning into a corporate religion.
Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. Rev. ed. New York: Basic Books, 1989.
This book is an excellent investment in your financial future. Read it before you start investing. (See Chapter 10 of Futuring for more on Kindleberger’s book.)
Kressley, Konrad. Living in the Third Millennium. Mobile, Alabama: Factor Press, 1998.
A professor of political science offers a readable, straight-forward vision of probable futures, with an emphasis on helping readers develop skills for managing their own futures. Topics include the art of forecasting, planning your career, preparing for financial security, becoming proactive about your health, and more.
Kuhn, Thomas. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970.
This book popularized the concept that science progresses by means of repeated "paradigm shifts," such as when the Copernican view of the solar system replaced the Ptolemaic view. Since then, the term "paradigm shift" has become a catch term in business, the social sciences, and elsewhere.
Kurian, George, and Graham T.T. Molitor. The Encyclopedia of the Future. 2 vols. New York: Simon & Schuster Macmillan, 1996.
Graham Molitor, vice president of the World Future Society, spent five years recruiting distinguished futurists and other scholars to produce this monumental work. Probably never before had so many scholars collaborated on a future-oriented project. The result was an enormous assemblage of ideas and insights about the future. The 400 separate articles discuss the future of everything from comic books to capitalism, from dentistry to demography, peace keeping and the performing arts. Though now dated, it contains an enormous amount of material that is still useful and interesting.
Kurian, George, and Graham T.T. Molitor. The 21st Century. Macmillan Compendium. New York: Macmillan, 1999.
This one-volume edition of the Encyclopedia of the Future (above) condenses the contents of the two-volume set.
Kurzweil, Ray. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking, 1999.
A noted inventor describes likely advances that will result in computers exceeding the memory capacity and computational ability of the human brain by the year 2020; relationships with automated personalities who will be our teachers and companions; and information fed directly into human brains along direct neural pathways. Eventually, the differences between humans and computers will be so blurred that we will believe the machines are conscious when they say they are.
Lee, Laura. Bad Predictions. Rochester, Michigan: Elsewhere Press, 2000.
A compendium of erroneous forecasts from many sources. Covers transportation, technology, medicine, arts, business, history, and more. Demonstrates that anyone can make a mistake when trying to predict, and many forecasts are highly amusing in hindsight. Includes introduction but no commentary on individual forecasts.
Linstone, Harold A. Decision Making for Technology Executives: Using Multiple Perspectives to Improve Performance. Norwood, Massachusetts: Artech House, 2000.
The author, a veteran of many years in technical planning for the Hughes and Lockheed corporations, astutely analyzes the problems of making decisions concerning technology: Specific examples discussed include such disasters as the Maginot Line, the Exxon Valdez, and Three Mile Island. Though somewhat technical, this well-informed text requires no deep knowledge of technology or mathematics to appreciate its important insights into decision making.
Lippitt, Lawrence L. Preferred Futuring: Envision the Future You Want and Unleash the Energy to Get There. San Francisco: Berrett-Kohler, 1998.
The Preferred Futuring concept, developed by Ron Lippitt (the author’s father) and Ed Lindaman in 1968, focuses on getting all the stakeholders together to develop a vision that is clear, detailed, and generally understood. The vision then is translated into action goals, a series of planned steps with accountability identified, together with a structure to implement the action plan. Note: This approach resembles the Future Search approach described by Marvin R. Weisbord and Sandra Janoff. See entry for their book.
McGuire, Bill. A Guide to the End of the World: Everything You Never Wanted to Know. New York: Oxford, 2002.
An authoritative yet highly readable book that will open readers’ eyes to the dangers posed by our natural environment including climate change (global warming vs. a new ice age), super-volcanic eruptions, giant tsunamis, earthquakes, asteroids, and comets. The author, a professor of geophysical hazards at University College London, provides much eye-opening new information that scientists have developed. An exceptional book on this topic.
McNeill, William H. Plagues and Peoples, 1976. Rev. ed. New York: Anchor Books/Doubleday, 1998.
AIDS, SARS, and Mad Cow Disease demonstrate the continuing importance of epidemics in shaping events. McNeill’s classic text traces the impacts of epidemics on human life through the centuries.
Maddox, John. What Remains to Be Discovered: Mapping the Secrets of the Universe, the Origins of Life and the Future of the Human Race. New York: Free Press, 1998.
A former editor of the British science journal Nature takes a serious look at what scientists don’t know. "The record of previous centuries suggests that the excitement in the years ahead will spring from the answers to the questions we do not yet know enough to ask.... The problems that remain unsolved are gargantuan. They will occupy our children and their children and so on and on for centuries to come, perhaps even for the rest of time."
Marien, Michael, and Lane Jennings, eds. What I Have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1987.
Leading futurist authors of the 1970s and 1980s report how their thinking about the future has changed. Contributors include W. Warren Wagar, Kenneth E. Boulding, Willis W. Harman, Victor Ferkiss, Irene Taviss Thomson, Robert T. Francoeur, Jim Dator, Amitai Etzioni, Walter A. Hahn, Joseph F. Coates, Vary T. Coates, Harold A. Linstone, Bertram Gross, Kusum Singh, and Hazel Henderson. The varied contributions demonstrate the wide diversity of views among people sharing a common interest in the human future. This diversity may be frustrating to people expecting to be told exactly what the future will be like by a knowledgeable expert, but the diversity of the contributions also shows the creative strength of the futurist community, which provides an opportunity for futurists with strongly opposed ideas to come together and share their often-radically different ideas in a friendly and mutually respectful venue.
Marsh, Nick, Mike McAllum, and Dominique Purcell. Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future. Melbourne, Australia: Crown Content, 2002.
An Australian perspective on introducing strategic foresight into organizations. The book also discusses national foresight programs in New Zealand, Finland, Brazil, and elsewhere.
Masini, Eleanora. Why Future Studies? London: Grey Seal Books, 1993. (Out of print. Copies still available through the World Future Society.)
An Italian futurist and professor examines the history, principles, concepts, philosophy, and ethical elements of the futures field. Masini spent many years working for the World Futures Studies Federation and teaching at Rome’s Pontifical Gregorian University. Her long experience is reflected in this thoughtful book.
Mason, Colin. The 2030 Spike: Countdown to Global Catastrophe. London and Springfield, Virginia: Earthscan Publications, 2003.
This is a recent example of a "doomsday" book anticipating global calamity unless action is taken immediately. The author, a well-known Australian journalist and politician, believes that depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages, and international lawlessness will converge in the 2030 decade and may smother civilization.
Masuda, Yoneji. The Information Society As Post-Industrial Society. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 1981.
A principal architect of Japan’s $65 billion computer-usage plan offers a vision of the society of the future when computers will free people to live more creative and happy lives. He discusses computer-controlled vehicle systems, automated supermarkets, etc. Though it is now dated, Masuda’s visionary book excited many in the computer world when it first appeared, and his ideas are still interesting.
Matathia, Ira, and Marian Salzman. Next: Trends for the Near Future. Woodstock, New York: Overlook Press, 1999.
Trend watchers for a New York advertising firm offer a host of predictions for business, technology, and lifestyle changes in the years just ahead. The book is packed with facts and forecasts but lacks references to the original materials. The text seems largely aimed at marketers, and the authors are not shy about advertising their research services.
May, Graham H. The Future Is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1996.
A lecturer at Leeds Metropolitan University in England explores such questions as why we forecast the future despite the likelihood we will be wrong, how people relate to the future, and other issues. This is a college-level text for use in future-oriented courses in business, management, urban planning, and other areas.
Mazaar, Michael. Global Trends 2005: An Owner’s Manual for the Next Decade. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1999.
Mazaar, a fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., offers a general overview of the transformations to be expected in the near future. He also considers a few surprise scenarios, such as a media-savvy demagogue who rises to power offering alienated millions an authority figure to replace traditional institutions that have been undermined by information overload.
Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books, 1972.
This volume summarizes the Club of Rome report prepared at MIT by Dennis Meadows and his colleagues, using the computerized system dynamics approach developed by Professor Jay Forrester. The pessimistic report created a sensation in intellectual circles, especially in Europe, with its contention that, if present patterns of rapid population and capital growth are allowed to continue, the world faces "a disastrous collapse."
Merriam, John E., and Joel Makower. Trend Watching: How the Media Create Trends and How to Be the First to Uncover Them. New York: AMACOM, 1988.
This how-to book deals with understanding, analyzing, and anticipating trends based on what is being reported in the media.
Michalko, Michael. Cracking Creativity: The Secrets of Creative Geniuses. Berkeley, California: Ten Speed Press, 1998.
A clear and lively discussion of creativity techniques.
Miller, James G. Living Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978.
A mammoth volume presenting an overview of the author’s theory of living systems at both high and low levels of complexity. He creates a hierarchy of seventeen components of systems.
Millett, Stephen M., and Edward J. Honton. A Manager’s Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Press, 1991.
A short, well-informed, and practical guide to the use of forecasting and strategy analysis methods in corporate planning. It provides forthright and detailed critiques of their strengths and weaknesses.
Mintzberg, Henry, Bruce Ahlstrand, and Joseph Lampel. Strategy Safari: A Guided Tour Through the Wilds of Strategic Management. New York: Free Press, 1998.
A primer on business strategy with a critique of different approaches.
Modis, Theodore. An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street: Survival of the Fittest Reigns at the Stock Market. Geneva: Growth Dynamics, 1999.
In his earlier books Predictions (Simon & Schuster, 1992) and Conquering Uncertainty (McGraw-Hill, 1998), physicist/ futurist Modis showed how scientific theories about seasonal change and cycles of behavior in plants and animals might be used to explain—and forecast—changes in human society. This newer book uses this approach to explain events in the stock market. The book offers fascinating insights into parallels and between completely unrelated areas of nature and human society.
Molitor, Graham T.T. The Power to Change the World: The Art of Forecasting. Potomac, Maryland: Graham T.T. Molitor, 2003.
A spiral-bound presentation of the "Molitor Model of Change: Basic 22 Signature Patterns of Change." The book features more than 200 charts showing trends of many varieties. The patterns of change include litigation, random phenomena, subtle impacts, catalysts, voluntary accommodation, and much more. An unusual and stimulating presentation of material. Provenance of the original data is not indicated.
Moravec, Hans. Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1998.
A former Carnegie Mellon University robotics expert believes robots will model themselves after successful biological forms. He anticipates that robots will become "intelligent machines" that will learn our skills, share our goals and values, and become our evolutionary heirs.
Morrison, Ian. The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change. New York: Ballantine, 1996.
Help for managers preparing for future growth and change. "The second curve" is a revolutionary business model that allows companies to anticipate the rate of change, identify new directions, and know when to jump onto the second curve of change.
Mulhall, Douglas. Our Molecular Future: How Nanotechnology, Robotics, Genetics, and Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Our World. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books, 2002.
A readable, imaginative survey of cutting-edge technologies and their implications for human life. Discusses such things as transhumans, the possibility of a "singularity," molecular weapons, and scenarios for what may happen in the future.
Naisbitt, John. Global Paradox: The Bigger the World Economy, the More Powerful Its Smallest Players. New York: William Morrow, 1994.
The author argues that both nations and individuals are now breaking up into smaller and smaller units, because the telecommunications revolution is simultaneously creating a global economy and empowering its constituent parts, with power flowing particularly to small units. Goods and services can be sold all over the world with increasing ease, so the small nations and businesses are finding that they can compete more successfully than in the past.
Naisbitt, John. Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. New York: Warner, 1982.
Naisbitt describes ten major trends affecting our society today. For instance, we are moving from an industrial society to an information society, from a national economy to a world economy, and from institutional help to self-help. Though now dated, this book was a best seller that got many people thinking about trends.
Naisbitt, John, and Patricia Aburdene. Megatrends 2000. New York: William Morrow, 1990.
Modeled on the best-selling Megatrends, this book focuses on a new set of perceived macrotrends, including the rise of the Pacific Rim countries, a religious revival, etc. This volume like its predecessor can be described as a "newsbook"—a book-length text designed to help time-short people understand the forces that give rise to news events. Despite critics sneering at this "millennial megababble," thousands of readers like Naisbitt’s information-rich, readable presentation and have put his books on best-seller lists.
Naisbitt, John, with Nana Naisbitt and Douglas Philips. High Tech – High Touch: Technology and Our Search for Meaning. New York: Broadway Books, 1999.
This highly readable and informative but loosely organized book argues that people need "high touch" experiences—the non-technological joys of living—to set off the high tech aspects of their lives. The book includes a strong chapter on the social and ethical consequences of genetic technology.
Nanus, Burt. Visionary Leadership: Creating a Compelling Sense of Direction for Your Organization. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1992.
This timely book explains what visionary leadership is all about and why it is important to develop the skills necessary for leading organizations into the future. Leadership expert Burt Nanus, co-author of this best-selling book shows you how to develop a vision, implement it, and know when it’s time to "re-vision." A participant’s workbook is also available.
Nanus, Burt. The Vision Retreat: A Facilitator’s Guide. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1995.
A leadership expert offers a logical, step-by-step process for creating and implementing a new direction for your organization.
Nirenberg, John. Power Tools: A Leader’s Guide to the Latest Management Thinking. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1997.
A guide to 100 of the latest management "tools," with an assessment of just how useful they are.
Ogilvy, James A. Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow. Foreword by Peter Schwartz. New York: Oxford University Press, 2002.
A co-founder of the Global Business Network argues that we today "suffer from a lack of sufficient idealism." Popular images of the future tend to be grim. Ogilvy takes "an unabashedly hopeful" view but says there is nothing inevitable about better futures. We must create them, and we can help people do so by framing alternative scenarios customized to their particular situations. This is not a how-to book for scenario planning but rather a general discussion of its usefulness in improving organizational futures.
Orwell, George. Nineteen Eighty-four. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company Inc., 1949.
A classic dystopian novel. The atomic wars Orwell refers to as occurring in the 1950s never occurred, but his portrayal of a totalitarian state remains of lasting interest. The book can best be viewed as a satire rather than a serious attempt to forecast the future. Orwell wanted to attack the totalitarian tendencies by means of a satire, so he showed them in exaggerated forms. But the tendencies remain alive and well today, and may be seen in such phenomena as the vilification of enemies, the terrorization of non-conformists, and the rewriting of history to fit current political dogmas.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 21st Century Technologies: Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future. Paris: OECD, 1998.
OECD’s secretariat prepared this report for the World Exposition in Hannover, Germany, in 2000. The report consists of seven articles by experts writing on such topics as biotechnology and the macro conditions conducive to realizing technology’s potential.
Pearson, Ian, ed. Macmillan Atlas of the Future. New York: Macmillan Reference, 1998.
Full-color maps and graphics provide a vivid overview of where we are headed in the new millennium. An international team of leading analysts predicts developments in such areas as space exploration, economics, life expectancy, biodiversity, democracy, and more. Though dated, the book’s approach is eye-catching and still interesting.
Pearson, Ian D., and Chris Winter. Where’s IT Going? New York: Thames & Hudson, 1999.
Two British Telecommunications experts offer a forecast for future developments in information technology. Specific topics include computers, communications, financial systems, and social institutions and behavior.
Petersen, John L. Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises. Lanham, Maryland: Madison, 1997.
John L. Petersen, president of the Arlington Institute in Arlington, Virginia, examines the potential impacts of such "wild card" events as an asteroid collision, the collapse of the U.S. dollar, a shift in the Earth’s axis, and the perfection of techniques for cloning humans. This rapid ride through scores of scenarios is designed to get you to think "out of the box" and learn how to manage surprises.
Pirages, Dennis Clark, and Theresa Manly De Geest. Ecological Security: An Evolutionary Perspective on Globalization. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003.
The senior author is a professor of international environmental politics at the University of Maryland with years of distinguished scholarship and numerous books to his credit. This book is a well-organized, systematic discussion of the ecological issues of the near-term future, with lucid analyses and many suggestions for solving the problems of a globalizing world.
Pirages, Dennis, ed. Building Sustainable Societies: A Blueprint for a Post-Industrial World. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1996.
This collection of twenty previously unpublished essays by noted scholars analyzes the implications of economic development as part of the search for an economic system that can be sustained over time.
Polak, Fred L. The Image of the Future. New York: Elsevier, 1973.
A Dutch scholar prepared this study of the role of images of the future down through history. Translated by Elise Boulding, a sociologist and futurist.
Prantzos, Nikos. Our Cosmic Future: Humanity’s Fate in the Universe. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
Billions of years from now, the sun will run out of fuel and grow dark, making the earth uninhabitable. Engineer Prantzos of the Swiss Technical Institute in Zurich offers an escape plan for humanity—in plenty of time to prepare for the crisis.
Prehoda, Robert W. Designing the Future: The Role of Technological Forecasting. Philadelphia: Chilton Books, 1967.
Technological forecaster Robert Prehoda presents a rationale for man’s potential ability to foresee accurately the future capabilities and results of applied science. The book defines technological forecasting as "the description or prediction of a foreseeable invention, specific scientific refinement, or likely scientific discovery that promises to serve some useful function." Prehoda describes several approaches to technological forecasting; his primary technique is through what he calls "the Hahn-Strassmann point." The name comes from the Hahn-Strassmann experiments in 1938, which showed the possibility of uranium fission. His method is to look for analogous situations; i.e., laboratory achievements that show the possibility of some major advance on a practical scale, then forecast the practical results that could be based on this laboratory achievement.
Rees, Martin. Our Final Hour. New York: Basic Books, 2003.
The Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom takes time from his cosmological work to issue a bleak warning to earthlings: "I think the odds are no better than 50-50 that our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of [this] century." He offers a long list of worries, from black holes to unstable individual buildings, but he also suggests reasons why many of his horrors may not prove as horrible as he fears.
Reibnitz, Ute von. Scenario Techniques. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1987.
Scenario techniques are suitable for all projects dealing with complex, interrelated problems. This book clearly shows how scenarios may be used in strategic planning, individual planning in organizational departments, and personal planning.
Renesch, John. Getting to the Better Future: A Matter of Conscious Choosing. Foreword by Anita Roddick. San Francisco: New Business Books, 2000.
Humans have hardly reached full maturity as a species, the author contends, as evidenced by conditions throughout the world. The present course suggests that the future of our world will unfold by default—the result of haphazard and random decisions based on short-term expediency. However, the author offers an alternative future—one created by conscious intention with the longer term in view.
Rescher, Nicholas. Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting. Albany, New York: State University of New York Press, 1998.
The author, a professor of philosophy at the University of Pittsburgh, provides a thorough discussion of the nature and problems of prediction. The volume discusses the ontology and epistemology of the future, predictive methods, evaluation of predictions and predictors, obstacles to prediction, and other aspects of prediction. Rescher also focuses on the theoretical and methodological issues of prediction, but does not attempt to make predictions of his own for the future.
Ringland, Gill. Scenario Planning. Chichester, United Kingdom: Wiley, 1998.
A comprehensive guide to using scenarios in business. It can function well both as a general primer and as a detailed textbook. The author, an executive with the London-based information technology firm ICL, notes that people in business sometimes confuse scenarios as forecasts. Rather, they are ways to understand the total environment in which business operates.
Rischard, Jean-François. High Noon: 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them. New York: Perseus Books, 2002.
A vice president of the World Bank argues that current ways of dealing with complex global issues are not up to the job. He argues that "each global issue should have its own problem-solving vehicle" and proposes twenty global issues networks.
Rubenstein, Herb, and Tony Grundy: Breakthrough: High Growth Strategies for Entrepreneurial Organizations. Harlow, England: Financial Times/ Prentice Hall Pearson Education Ltd., 1999.
This book by two business consultants, focusing on how companies can grow rapidly, discusses trend analysis and other futurist techniques.
Sale, Kirkpatrick. Rebels Against the Future: The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution. New York: Addison-Wesley, 1995.
A long-time critic of technology recounts the famous Luddite uprising against the new manufacturing equipment powered by steam or water engines in the 1790s. The British parliament dispatched an army of 14,000 men to put down the rebellion. Viewing the Luddites as martyrs to the cause of halting the technological juggernaut, Sale proposes a wholesale dismantling of industrial technology as we know it.
Salmon, Robert. The Future of Management: All Roads Lead to Man. Translated by Larry Cohen. Oxford, United Kingdom: Blackwell Publishers, 1996.
The former vice-chairman of the cosmetics giant L’Oreal offers business executives a visionary guide to the coming decades. Salmon believes a new economic order is emerging on the basis of human dynamics and aspirations rather than short-term financial gains achieved at employees’ and customers’ expense. It is devotion to human potential that will unlock the future, Salmon believes.
Schnaars, Steven. Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. New York: Free Press, 1989.
A marketing professor at the City University of New York argues that 80 percent of business forecasting has been dead wrong. His analysis focuses on the past three decades in which entrepreneurs, managers, and forecasters have repeatedly anticipated great success for such developments as the videophone only to have them fail in the marketplace. In this entertaining volume, Schnaars explores the question of why consumers repeatedly reject the new products they are offered, thereby invalidating the forecasts of the developers.
Schrage, Michael. Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate. Foreward by Tom Peters. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1999.
A discussion of business innovation by means of models, simulations, gaming, and prototyping.
Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday/Currency, 1991.
A former leader of the Global Business Network shows how composing and using scenarios can help people visualize and prepare for a better future. Oriented largely toward business rather than individuals.
Schwartz, Peter, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt. The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity. Reading, Massachusetts: Perseus Books, 1999.
An optimistic vision of the first two decades of the twenty-first century.
Sherden, William A. The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions. New York: Wiley, 1998.
Sherden launches a frontal assault on futurists, economists, stock market gurus, weather forecasters, technology prophets, and others who make forecasts for money. The gravamen of his indictment is that forecasters are frauds because the future is unknowable: When forecasters do manage to get something right, it’s simply by chance. This is a highly readable exposé but so one-sided that it’s hard to take seriously. Futurists do not need to be told that forecasts often prove wrong, but they may find it useful to hear what a critic has to say.
Shostak, Arthur B., ed. Viable Utopian Ideas: Shaping a Better World. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2003.
A collection of forty-seven original essays exploring pragmatic reform possibilities of special interest to futurists. Features ideas by such leading forecasters as Wendell Bell, Joseph F. Coates, Lane Jennings, Michael Marien, and many others.
Slaughter, Richard A. The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1995.
Why is foresight useful? How much does it really cost, and who should support it? What are the real megatrends?
Slaughter, Richard A. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. 3 vols. Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia: DDM Media Group, 1996.
This three-volume set provides an in-depth, authoritative, and truly international overview of futures studies. Volume 1, Foundations, considers the origins of futures studies and discusses some of the social, cultural, and historical reasons for their emergence. Volume 2, Organizations, Practices, Products, begins with case studies of five very different futures organizations from different continents. Volume 3, Directions and Outlooks, describes recent developments and innovations in futures studies itself. This set of volumes will aid anyone working in any of the emerging futures professions. Note: A fourth volume is included in the CD-ROM version.
Stableford, Brian, and David Langford. The Third Millennium: A History of the World: AD 2000-3000. New York: Knopf, 1985.
Fanciful scenarios for possible developments in the centuries ahead.
Stewart, Hugh B. Recollecting the Future: A View of Business, Technology, and Innovation in the Next 30 Years. Homewood, Illinois: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1989.
Where growth is involved, scientist/engineer Stewart believes it is possible to "recollect" the future—that is, apply laws of growth similar to those in biology to the development of new industries, energy use, and the economy. Stewart believes that if his arguments are correct we will see the dawn of a very important new industrial, energy-use, and economic surge beginning before the year 2000. The book should appeal strongly to people interested in ways to anticipate future technology.
Stock, Gregory. Redesigning Humans: Our Inevitable Genetic Future. New York: Houghton-Mifflin, 2002.
An expert on recent advances in reproductive biology discusses the ethical dilemmas occurring as we gain the ability to choose our offspring’s genes. Biological enhancements of human abilities may challenge what it means to be human. The author has served as director of UCLA’s Program on Medicine, Technology, and Society. Compare with Fukuyama’s Our Posthuman Future.
Tenner, Edward. Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1996.
New technologies are likely to produce "revenge effects"—bad consequences that were not intended. Advanced safety systems can lead to overconfidence, as in the case of the Titanic sinking. This popularized, largely anecdotal discussion also notes that technology’s "bites" have often had good effects: The sinking of the Titanic led to new measures to deal with the hazards of icebergs and ocean travel in general.
Thomson, Sir George. The Foreseeable Future. Rev. ed. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1960.
Nobel Prize winning British physicist Sir George Thomson published this book in 1955. The author focused on sources of energy, transportation, communication, meteorology, natural resources, food production, and intellectual development. Two decades after his book appeared, a reviewer in The Futurist reported that Thomson’s twenty-year-old forecasts had generally turned out to be remarkably accurate. Thomson had correctly foreseen the energy crisis in the 1970s and the triumph of the computer.
Toffler, Alvin. Future Shock. New York: Random House, 1970.
This international best seller argues that increasing numbers of people are suffering from the impact of too rapid social change. Toffler believes that the problem may become increasingly severe in the years to come. A final chapter, "The Strategy of Social Futurism," proposes a number of ways in which society can learn to cope with future shock. The author outlines his ideas about how to make democracy more anticipatory in its character.
Toffler, Alvin. Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the Edge of the 21st Century. New York: Bantam, 1990.
Powershift is the third and final volume of a trilogy that began with Future Shock (1970) and continued with The Third Wave (1980). Toffler examines three forms of power: (1) knowledge (information, communications, and media), (2) wealth (business, financial), and (3) violence (government, politics). He, argues that power is now shifting from violence and wealth toward knowledge and provides a highly browsable compendium of fascinating anecdotes and insights.
Toffler, Alvin. The Third Wave. New York: William Morrow, 1980.
The author describes a new civilization that he believes is emerging from our present industrial civilization, but the best part of the book may be the author’s ability to provide numerous fascinating insights, useful perspectives, and plausible anticipations concerning current trends.
Toffler, Alvin, and Heidi Toffler. War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century. Boston: Little, Brown, 1993.
A readable but disturbing discussion of what war may be like in the future, including widely dispersed nuclear weapons available to small groups such as Asian warlords or Mafia families. A nuclear bomb may explode in Washington or other big city without anyone knowing who is responsible.
Vision Center for Futures Creation. A Tale of the Future. E-book. Göteborg, Sweden: Visionscentret Framtidsbygget, 1998.
This electronic book offers an extended scenario or "social science fiction," based on a study conducted by a group of twenty-six Swedish young people. The electronic book is available in either Swedish or English.
Wagar, W. Warren. Good Tidings: The Belief in Progress from Darwin to Marcuse. Bloomington, Indiana: Indiana University Press, 1972.
The belief in progress is sometimes viewed as "the religion of modern man." In this book, Wagar analyzes how this belief changed during the period from 1880 to 1970. A good companion volume for J.B. Bury’s earlier work The Idea of Progress. (See above.)
Wagar, W. Warren. The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger, 1991.
A historian and futurist based at the State University of New York in Binghamton identifies three major camps of futurist thinking: technoliberals, radicals, and counterculturalists. The book as a whole provides a vital introduction to the diversified field of futurist inquiry.
Wagar, W. Warren. A Short History of the Future. 3rd ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
Historian/futurist Wagar offers a detailed scenario for world developments during the twenty-first century.
Weiner, Edith, and Arnold Brown. Insider’s Guide to the Future. New York: Boardroom Books, 1997.
Two veteran futurists specializing in analyzing trends for business clients offer insights into the new "Emotile Society," which blends emotions and mobility. Knowledge will be the greatest economic asset, but it will be limited by time: Information that is incredibly valuable one moment may be worthless the next.
Weisbord, Marvin R., and Sandra Janoff. Future Search: An Action Guide to Finding Common Ground in Organizations and Communities. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 1995.
The future-search process focuses on resolving conflicts, generating commitment to common goals, and taking responsibility for action. This practical guide offers techniques for running successful future-search conferences.
Weldon, Lynn L. The Future: Important Choices. Boulder, Colorado: University Press of Colorado, 1995.
This introductory text for college-level courses in futures studies is also useful for general readers, offering a succinct summary of major world issues and differing views.
Wilson, Edward O. The Future of Life. New York: Knopf, 2002.
Wilson, a Harvard biology professor, warns of an "armageddon" due to humanity destroying the earth’s living environment.
World Future Society. The Futurist Directory: A Guide to Individuals Who Write, Speak, or Consult about the Future. Bethesda, Maryland: World Future Society, 2000.
A listing of nearly 1,400 individuals including specialization, employment, publications, street and electronic addresses, and telephone numbers. Geographical and subject indexes.
Worldwatch Institute. The State of the World. New York: W.W. Norton. Published annually.
This annual volume has been published every year since 1984. Lester R. Brown, the Institute’s founder and first president, led the development of these reports, and their readability and high quality has continued under the leadership of the Institute’s new president, Christopher Flavin. The reports offer authoritative information on current world trends, with special emphasis on the environment. Readable and trustworthy information. Specific topics vary from year to year.
Worzel, Richard. The Next Twenty Years of Your Life: A Personal Guide Into the Year 2017. Toronto: Stoddart, 1997.
Clear, concise discussion of how technologies and other changes will affect your family, your work, your health, and your lifestyle. Among author Worzel’s forecasts: the end of retirement, the end of television, the biggest stock market boom in history, and life spans extended beyond age 100.
Zey, Michael G. The Future Factor: The Five Forces Transforming Our Lives and Shaping Human Destiny. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2000.
A general discussion of the human future, with emphasis on the new possibilities opened by emerging technologies. Topics include nanotechnology, cloning, genetic engineering, smart machines, space settlement, and general human progress. The optimism of this book’s view of the human future is extreme: Probably no previous book has suggested that humans might someday save the universe from eventual death in a "Big Chill" or "Big Crunch," as augured by cosmology’s Big Bang theory.