PREDICTING INNOVATIONS
MIT's Innovation Futures online trading system uses the marketplace's
own predictive tools to help researchers and investors assess how innovative (and
competitive) a nation is.
Like other forms of futures trading, Innovation Futures puts a number
(the trading price) on the likelihood of an event occurring. But rather than forecasting
demand for pork bellies, the Innovation Futures traders are forecasting venture-capital
investment, chip prices, the extent of broadband connection, and other indicators of
innovativeness.
Innovation Futures has now teamed with the Cambridge-MIT Institute to
offer a predictive marketplace for innovation in the United Kingdom. The goal is to
consolidate information from disparate sources on where innovation is taking place and the
amount of resources being put into research and development of innovative ideas and
products.
Comment: The new trading board may offer some promise of better research
into the state of innovation, but the outlook on the trading board is very short term. For
instance, among the items on which traders may now bet are whether there would be more or
fewer venture-backed companies going public in the third quarter of 2004 and the price of
radio-frequency identification chips by the end of the year. Perhaps as traders become
more adept and the information on which they trade becomes more extensive, the definition
of the "future" will likewise extend beyond the last page of this year's
calendar.
DETAILS: The Cambridge-MIT Institute, http://www.cambridge-mit.org
Innovation Futures, http://innovationfutures.com/bk/index.html
Editor's note: For another view on how the futures-trading
concept is being applied to real-world forecasting, see "Terrorism Futures: A Viable
Tool to Predict Terrorism" by finance professor Russ Ray of the University of
Kentucky in FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY (Summer 2004):
http://www.wfs.org/frqsum04.htm
HOMESCHOOLS AS SOLUTION TO VIOLENCE?
Russian families hoping to keep their children safe after the hostage
tragedy in Beslan in September have turned to a U.S. homeschool curriculum provider for
assistance.
The Calvert School, based in Baltimore, has fielded dozens of inquiries
from families in Russia as well as Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, and the Ukraine, reports
Jean C. Halle, president of Calvert Education Services, the School's distance-learning
arm. The Russian reaction mirrors that which occurs among U.S. families whenever a new
incident of school violence makes headlines.
"Each time an incident brings school safety into question, parents
reevaluate their educational options, and homeschooling becomes a more attractive
option," says Halle. The Calvert School provides daily lessons, textbooks, workbooks,
assignments, activities, and supplies to enrolled homeschool and distance-learning
students.
This spike in interest in homeschooling may be part of a larger trend
toward "learning without schools," suggests author John C. Lundt in the cover
story of the November-December 2004 FUTURIST magazine, which will be mailed to subscribers
after October 4.
DETAILS: The Calvert School, http://www.calvertschool.org
ORDER: THE FUTURIST, November-December 2004 issue, https://www.wfs.org/futuristorder.htm
BEWARE OF HAPPY WORKERS
Workers who are happy and optimistic may be confident enough to leave
their jobs to try something different, warn Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, authors of the
HERMAN TREND ALERT e-mail newsletter. And U.S. employees are currently showing signs of
growing happiness.
The Hudson Employment Index developed by Hudson Global Resources
measures the state of workers' minds, finding that happiness has been increasing steadily
and in August reached a high of 108.9 for the year.
Herman and Gioia note that, as consumer and worker confidence increase,
employees will begin to demand more from their employers, such as better benefits,
more-flexible working arrangements, and opportunities for growth. And they will be more
apt to risk plunging themselves back into the job market if their demands aren't met.
SOURCES: The Herman Group, HERMAN TREND ALERT (September 1, 2004),
http://www.hermangroup.com
The Hudson Employment Index, http://www.hudson-index.com
************************************************************
WORLDFUTURE 2005:
FORESIGHT, INNOVATION, AND STRATEGY
The World Future Society's 2005 annual meeting will be held July 29-31
at the Chicago Hilton Hotel and Towers.
REGISTER before September 30 to save $250:
https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
CONFERENCE INFORMATION: http://www.wfs.org/2005main.htm
************************************************************
CULTURAL REVOLUTION NEEDED FOR FORESIGHT
Society needs to give up the idea that the future is beyond our ability
to shape, writes Hugues de Jouvenel in his new book AN INVITATION TO FORESIGHT, published
as a special edition of the journal FUTURIBLES.
"A cultural revolution in our attitude to the future is needed, for
us as individuals, members of different human communities, actors in an ecosystem and
citizens," de Jouvenel writes, describing "prospective" (foresight) as
"the offspring of freedom and responsibility."
The book--written in French with side-by-side English
translation--provides a concise overview of both the philosophy behind foresight and its
principal tools.
DETAILS: FUTURIBLES, http://www.futuribles.com
************************************
FUTURE TOPICS FOR THE FUTURIST
Among the subjects that THE FUTURIST magazine hopes to cover in 2005 are
education, energy, sports, careers, architecture, animals, water, governance, and
sustainability.
The editors would like to hear what topics you are interested in seeing
covered. Please forward your tips, ideas, suggestions, and comments to Cindy Wagner,
managing editor, at mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
************************************
CLICK
OF THE MONTH: FutureLife: http://www.futurelife.ch
The FutureLife project puts a typical Swiss family, the Steiners, into a
typical house of the future. Virtual visitors can take a tour, floor by floor and room by
room, to see what new technologies we may soon be living with. The house serves as a
showcase for manufacturers of a range of home products and services, from toys to toilets.
Photos of the family and the latest newsletter can be found under the
News menu. The project has been under way since 2000 and is now managed by the Steiners
themselves with an extensive partnership program.
Note: The site's text information is in German, with French and English
versions available for most (but not all) of the information.
************************************
CALL FOR PAPERS
Share your ideas on foresight, innovation, and strategy for the future
with everyone attending the World Future Society's 2005 annual meeting, WorldFuture 2005,
to be held in Chicago July 29-31.
The editors are seeking knowledgeable and inspiring papers on the
conference theme and on futures-relevant topics, such as technological breakthroughs and
their impacts, shifting values, globalization and its discontents, and the urgent need to
devise sustainable solutions to economic, environmental, and social problems.
Approximately 25 to 30 papers will be selected for the volume.
The deadline for submitting a paper is March 15, 2005. Submission
guidelines are on the Web page for the 2005 conference.
GUIDELINES: http://www.wfs.org/2005volguidelines.htm
SAVE $250 by registering before September 30 for WorldFuture 2005:
https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
************************************
FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an
e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright ©
2004, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.
Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.
Editor: Cindy Wagner
Assistant Editor: Clifton Coles
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish
Webmaster: Sarah Warner
Membership Director: Susan Echard
To subscribe, send an e-mail message to mailto:majordomo@wfs.org with
"subscribe futurist-update" in the BODY of the message.
To unsubscribe or change your e-mail address, send message to Jeff Cornish,
mailto:jcornish@wfs.org.
Submit feedback at http://www.wfs.org/fboct04.htm
The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and
educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the Society,
including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $45 per year, or $20 for full-time students
under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also offered; contact
Society headquarters for details: http://www.wfs.org
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