IN THIS ISSUE:
* Attention E-Commerce Investors
* More Futurist Movies
* Business Webs
* Position Available: Strategic Planning Director
* Nurturing Knowledge
* Book Reviews Now Posted Online
* What's Next in THE FUTURIST
ATTENTION E-COMMERCE INVESTORS
Which e-businesses will win in the next decade? In his new book FUTURE CONSUMER.COM, Canadian business futurist Frank Feather predicts the top-five commercial Web sites in several key categories:
* Automobiles: GMBuyPower.com, Ford/CarPoint.com, AutoByTel.com, AutoNationDirect.com, and CarsDirect.com.
* Books: Amazon.com, BN.com, Bertelsmann, Wal-Mart.com, and Borders.com.
* Education: Unext.com, JonesUniversity.edu, Edison.com, Kaplan.com, UoPhx.edu.
* Entertainment and sports: AOL-TimeWarner (assuming the merger goes through), Disney/ESPN, Sony.com, GE,
and NewsCorp/Fox.
* Financial services: Citicorp/Travelers, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Intuit/Quicken.
* Health and beauty: Healtheon/WebMD.com, CVS.com, Drugstore.com (Amazon), Quixtar.com, and Walgreen.com.
* Home and home improvement: HomeDepot.com, Realtor.com, Dell.com, Sears.com, OfficeDepot.com.
* Mass merchandisers: Wal-Mart.com, AOL-TimeWarner.com, Amazon.com, Webvan.com, and Quixtar.com.
For more information, see: FUTURE CONSUMER.COM: THE WEBOLUTION OF SHOPPING TO 2010 by Frank Feather. Warwick Publishing. 2000. 317 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $26.95 ($24.25 for Society members), cat. no. B-2364. Click on http://www.wfs.org/bookord.htm to order.
MORE FUTURIST MOVIES
Last month we told you about Futurist.com's special Web page devoted to the host's
favorite science-fiction films. Futurist Josh Calder, a researcher at Coates &
Jarratt, Inc. (http://coatesandjarratt.com), has gone a step further, creating a site
devoted to discussing a wide range of future-oriented topics as they are portrayed in
films.
Cloning, for instance, is portrayed in both Woody Allen's SLEEPER (1973) and Luc Besson's THE FIFTH ELEMENT (1997). Nanotechnology is portrayed in "The Fifth Element" as well as TERMINATOR II (James Cameron, 1991). And time travel is depicted in "Terminator II" as well as TERMINATOR I (Cameron, 1984), TWELVE MONKEYS (Terry Gilliam, 1995), and all of the STAR TREK films (original creator Gene Roddenberry).
Calder uses the discussion of movies on the site "to bring ideas about the future to a wide audience, including many laypeople." He invites your feedback. Visit http://www.futuristmovies.com.
BUSINESS WEBS
The irony of the New Economy is that, despite ferocious competition, success derives
increasingly from connectivity and cooperation. "Business webs" is just one name
for the growing phenomenon of electronically enhanced business partnerships and exchanges
that are recreating the whole concept of the corporation.
In DIGITAL CAPITAL, futurist Don Tapscott and co-authors David Ticoll and Alex Lowy analyze the b-web concept, offering guidelines for harnessing its power: Plan your communications strategy for your b-web participants, especially your customers. Shift resources from traditional marketing to product and service innovation. Be honest--trust is critical for secure transactions. Recognize that attention is a scarce resource--manage it wisely.
And, finally, get involved with the 'Net Generation, baby boomers' children. They're Internet savvy; they demand information, options, and customized products and services; and they're the biggest generation in history--and thus your biggest business partners for the future.
For more information, see DIGITAL CAPITAL: HARNESSING THE POWER OF BUSINESS WEBS by Don Tapscott, David Ticoll, and Alex Lowy. Harvard Business School Press. 2000. 272 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $27.50 ($24.95 for Society members), cat. no. B-2365; click on http://www.wfs.org/bookord.htm to order. Or use the World Future Society's "b-web" partnership with Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1578511933/thefuturistbooks.
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STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTOR
$90,000 Annual Salary Requires any combination of experience and training that would likely provide the required knowledge and abilities is qualifying. A typical way to obtain the knowledge and abilities would be: the equivalent to a Bachelor's degree, plus five years of increasingly responsible administrative experience, preferably in a public agency.Contact: City of Tempe, Human Resources Division, telephone 1-480-350-8217; TDD 1-480-350-8400; Web site http://www.tempe.gov. APPLICATION REQUIRED.
NURTURING KNOWLEDGE
The growth of the knowledge economy could be undermined if working conditions for postdoctoral scholars are not improved, warns the National Academies in Washington, D.C. The number of science and engineering postdocs more than doubled in the past decade to approximately 52,000 individuals in university, government, and industry laboratories. But this rapid growth has led to "embarrassingly low pay and meager benefits," with average annual earnings some 25% lower than that of public school teachers, according to the Academies' report, "Enhancing the Postdoctoral Experience for Scientists and Engineers."
The goal in becoming a postdoc is usually to enhance one's career prospects--not just to do low-paying research for one's advisers. So the report recommends that research institutes limit the total time an individual spends as a postdoc and that they advise all prospective postdocs on the availability of jobs in their proposed fields so they can make better-informed career decisions.
For more information, visit http://www.nationalacademies.org/topnews/#0911.
BOOK REVIEWS NOW POSTED ONLINE
So many books, so little time! THE FUTURIST is here to help. To read book reviews published in the magazine during the last two years, simply go to http://www.wfs.org/bookstor.htm and click on "Read Book Reviews." You'll find the titles of all available reviews listed in the right-side menu bar.
WHAT'S NEXT IN THE FUTURIST
Here are some of the stories we're working on for the November-December 2000
issue of THE FUTURIST, which mails from the printer October 11: "Fourteen Forecasts
for an Aging Society" by Sam L. Ervin, president and CEO of the SCAN Health Plan.
(Cover story) "How Think Tanks Are Coping with the Future"
by James G. McGann, a consultant specializing in think tanks, who has advised the World
Bank, the United Nations, and U.S. AID, among many other organizations.
"The Taste of Tomorrow: Globalization Is Coming Home to Dinner" by Brian J. Ford, a scientist and British television personality, host of the series FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
"Food Forecasts for 2050" by Art Siemering, managing director of the International Food Futurists and editor of THE FOOD CHANNEL TRENDWIRE.
Plus: A wrap-up of the World Future Society's 2000 annual meeting in Houston and OUTLOOK 2001, our year-end roundup of thought-provoking forecasts.
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FUTURIST UPDATE: NEWS & PREVIEWS FROM THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. COPYRIGHT © 2000, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.
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