FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
November 2003
FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
November 2003
MORE WOMEN APPROACH MIDDLE AGE CHILDLESSThe proportion of American women ages 40 to 44 who remain childless increased from 10% in 1976 to 18% in 2002. Mothers in this age group now have considerably fewer children: an average of just 1.9, compared with 3.1 in 1976.
According to a new Census Bureau report, 44% of all U.S. women of childbearing age (15 to 44) are childless. The statistics may be good news for the economy: 71% of these childless women participate in the labor force. (In 1975, the total labor-force participation rate for women, with or without children, was just 46%.)
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census press release:
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/fertility/001491.htmlWHY SOME SURPRISES ARE INEVITABLE
One goal of studying the future is to take the shock out of it. By watching trends and contemplating potential shifts in trajectories, some "surprises" may turn out to be not so surprising after all.
Peter Schwartz, chairman of the Global Business Network, outlines several "inevitable surprises" in his most recent book, including:
- More integration, less isolation, of the elderly. Humans are living longer and maintaining enough vitality to be contributors to the workforce rather than burdens to economies and resources.
- Global migration will drain some countries of human resources and flood others with potential culture clashes and economic challenges.
- The long economic boom that grew in the 1990s will recover from the dot-com stock bubble burst of 2000. Thanks to ever improving technology, productivity is continuing to increase, and, with it, wealth.
Schwartz also describes some common-sense strategies for preparing for inevitable surprises, such as maintaining "sensory and intelligence systems" for observing forces that may affect you or your industry and putting a "very, very high premium on learning."
ORDER the book INEVITABLE SURPRISES: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence by Peter Schwartz: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1592400272/thefuturistbooks
SCHOLARS FOR THE LONGER-RANGE FUTURE
Four outstanding scholars of geography and environmental studies, political science, international relations, and diplomacy have been named fellows at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University:
- Cutler Cleveland, professor of geography and director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University.
- John Gerring, associate professor of political science, Boston University.
- Strom Thacker, associate professor of international relations, Boston University.
- Adil Najam, associate professor of international negotiation and diplomacy, Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
The scholars will conduct research on long-range issues pertaining to their fields, as well as organize Pardee Center conferences. The first, "Making Great Transformations," scheduled for November 13-15, will focus on goals for furthering human development.
The Pardee Center at Boston University was founded in 2000 by Frederick S. Pardee "to undertake futures studies with a view to illuminating the choices and decisions that lie ahead for the human race."
DETAILS: The Pardee Center, http://www.bu.edu/pardee
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POLLUTION-FIGHTING MICROBE
A new strain of bacterium has been discovered that could help rid the environment of toxic chemicals. Strain MS11 of Rhodococcus bacteria not only breaks down an assortment of pollutants, but also creates the means of gaining access to contaminants embedded in the particles of soil.
Microbes used in decontamination traditionally need assistance from detergents to flush the pollutants out of their hiding places. MS11 does its own flushing, according to researchers at the National Research Center for Biotechnology in Braunschweig, Germany.
Strain MS11 could be a boon for bioremediation in sites polluted for many years with chlorinated benzenes, chemicals widely used for herbicides and pesticides and known to cause serious health problems, such as immune-system disorders.
SOURCE: Paper by Peter Rapp and Lotte H.E. Gabriel-Jürgens in Microbiology 149 (2003), 2879-2890, Society for General Microbiology, http://mic.sgmjournals.org/
CLICK OF THE MONTH: DIGITAL SCHOOLHOUSE
http://ca.com/digitalschoolhouse/classroom.htmA program of the Computer Associates Digital Schoolhouse Foundation, the Digital Schoolhouse connects fifth-grade students to work lesson plans via the Internet and Microsoft Power Point. CA staffers volunteer to work with state certified teachers in leading all classes.
The Web site offers a variety of homework-helping links, such as "Ask Dr. Math," "How Stuff Works," "Inside Art," "Spelling Test," and the Library of Congress' "American Memory."
Though designed for students, the site is an excellent resource for anyone needing quick access to basic information.
WHAT FUTURE WILL YOU CREATE?
If you've ever experienced one of the World Future Society's exciting annual meetings, you know how inspiring and empowering they can be.
"Creating the Future Now!" is the theme of the next meeting, "World Future 2004," and the workshops, presentations, and special events promise to give you not only the inspiration to create a better tomorrow, but the tools--and the aides-de-camp--to build it!
WorldFuture 2004 will be held July 31 through August 2 at the Grand Hyatt Washington; the Professional Members' Forum follows on August 3.
DETAILS: http://www.wfs.org/2004main.htmREGISTER and Save $200 before December 31:
https://www.wfs.org/2004regfrm.htm
CLAY AIKEN'S ADVENTURES IN FUTURING
What if you're a college student planning to teach kids with mental disabilities but, in one short year, find you're now a singer whose first album debuts at the top of the record charts? One of the first lessons of futuring is that life is what happens when you're making other plans.
Clay Aiken, a 24-year-old special-education major from North Carolina, had already been doing a respectable job of futuring: He planned to teach, then get his master's degree in education administration, and become a school principal by age 50. He carefully weighed his life's goals and drew the paths to reach them.
Here comes the wild card, a low-probability, high-impact surprise:
Clay also loved singing, so friends encouraged him to audition for "American Idol," a televised talent competition. Told by the judges he had a great voice but didn't look like a pop star, Clay took the experts' advice and improved himself: "I'll do my best." Excellent futuring.
Clay's "best" landed him in second place, which was good enough to earn a recording contract. With it came the pressure to conform to the music industry's notions of what a pop star should sing--hip, edgy songs featuring sex, drugs, violence, and foul language. Clay refused to sing things he didn't think children should hear; he stuck to his core values. Excellent futuring.
Futurists generally dismiss pop-cultural phenomena such as Clay Aiken's meteoric rise to fame as trivial fads. But trend watchers should feel their antennae quivering. In a recent Time magazine interview, Clay Aiken hinted that his popularity is largely due to his core values. He said we are witnessing a revolution. Here's why he's right:
Clay is at the leading edge of the Millennial Generation, a large, influential demographic cohort now coming of age and, according to some observers, rejecting the materialism and self-absorption of their predecessors. Clay's oft-stated goal of using celebrity to do good in the world has inspired millions of people longing for a cultural hero who ennobles rather than degrades.
Clay's multiple-generation-spanning popularity is also driven by non-music media--television and, more critically, the fan-rallying Internet--rather than by traditional music-industry media such as radio. The fact that Clay is now selling hundreds of thousands of records with very little support from radio should have music-industry executives questioning their paradigms. (See the cover story in the November-December 2003 issue of THE FUTURIST for more on the technological and business trends affecting the music industry.)And finally, throughout the television competition, Clay Aiken successfully demonstrated a principle that business futurists have long advocated: Adapt or die. Clay is a great teacher because he is a great learner. That's excellent futuring, and we at the World Future Society wish him well on his further adventures.
ORDER Clay Aiken's MEASURE OF A MAN:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0000AGWEC/thefuturistbooksLINKS:
Official Clay Aiken Web site (sponsored by RCA Records): http://www.clayaiken.com
The Bubel/Aiken Foundation (charity founded by Clay Aiken): http://www.thebubelaikenfoundation.org
Selected fan sites and message boards:
http://www.claytonaiken.com
http://www.clayaikenfan.com
http://pub227.ezboard.com/bthatstheclay
http://idolforums.com/index.php?showforum=29Order the November-December 2003 issue of THE FUTURIST containing the cover story "Online Music: The Sound of Success" by Eric Garland: https://www.wfs.org/futuristorder.htm
Pre-order FUTURING: THE EXPLORATION OF THE FUTURE by Edward Cornish (January 2004): http://www.wfs.org/futuring.htm
FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2003, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.
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THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with some 25,000 members worldwide. Membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine and numerous other benefits, is just $45 per yea r ($20 for full-time students under age 25).
For more information on the Society and all its programs, publications, and services, contact Membership Director Susan Echard, mailto:sechard@wfs.org, or visit http://www.wfs.org.