News & Previews from the World Future Society
June 2005 (Vol. 6, No. 6)

In This Issue:
•  Global Warming Pushes Fish Northward
•  Laptop Doctors
•  Challenges to Debt Relief
•  Click of the Month: Wilson Center Foresight and Governance Project
•  Ageless Aging--And Other Previews from THE FUTURIST
•  WFS and the Digital Revolution

 

GLOBAL WARMING PUSHES FISH NORTHWARD
Rising temperatures in the North Sea have forced many species of fish, including cod and haddock, to shift their distribution, report researchers at the University of East Anglia. Species such as blue whiting and redfish could leave the North Sea entirely by 2050.

Over the past 25 years, 18 fish species have sought cooler waters, some moving more than 100 kilometers northward. That is nearly four times the rate of movement seen in land-based birds, butterflies, and alpine herbs, according to the researchers, who described their work in the May 13, 2005, issue of the journal SCIENCE.

The study suggests that fish may be more sensitive to climate change than land-based species and that fish stocks already strained could be at graver risk than previously thought. These findings could lead to renewed calls for tighter fishing restrictions.

DETAILS: University of East Anglia, http://comm.uea.ac.uk/press/release.asp?id=501

LAPTOP DOCTOR
Your future cell phone or laptop computer could help you track your vital signs and communicate with the doctor whenever something's amiss.

A portable device that monitors your breathing and heart rate via wireless signals has been developed by University of Florida engineer Jenshan Lin and colleagues. The device also allows users to transmit the information in real time to medical personnel through a cell phone or Internet connection.

Using technologies to improve home health care, especially for elderly persons hoping to maintain their independence, could be a boon as both health-care costs and the number of care-needing seniors rise in the years ahead.

SOURCE: University of Florida, http://www.napa.ufl.edu/2005news/heartmonitor.htm

CHALLENGES TO DEBT RELIEF
International efforts to relieve the debt burdens of the world's poorest countries appear to be succeeding, but beneath the statistical success stories are worrying challenges, warn some observers.

The lending spree of the 1970s and 1980s brought on crushing debt in Africa and Latin America, spurring the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to create the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in 1996. To date, more than two dozen countries have qualified for debt relief.

But this is not quite a "success" story in places like Uganda, where external debt has grown by 50% in the past decade. This continuing debt accumulation hampers poverty-reduction programs and compromises essential services, according to the Uganda Debt Network, a civil-society advocacy association.

Moreover, many of Uganda's creditor countries have not signed on to HIPC. And creditors such as Libya and Iraq now want Uganda--one of the poorest countries in the world--to pay back its debt, even threatening court action.

The UDN also charges the Ugandan government with not fulfilling its commitment to reducing poverty, blaming the nation's debt accumulation on the government's inability to supervise and monitor the loans--and on public officials' "questionable expenditure patterns," such as purchases of luxury vehicles for government ministers.

SOURCES: Integrated Regional Information Networks, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=47142&SelectRegion=East_Africa&SelectCountry=UGANDA
World Bank Debt Department, www.worldbank.org/debt

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HELP BRING STUDENTS TO WORLDFUTURE 2005

The World Future Society and the Global SchoolNet Foundation <http://www.globalschoolnet.org> are co-sponsoring a Web-based competition for high-school students to develop projects about their own futures, the future of their communities, and critical global issues.

We still need funding for scholarships to bring six student winners and their teachers to the Chicago conference in July to share their insights on the future. Your donation will support these and other young futurists, allowing them to participate fully at the conference as members of the futurist community.

The conference, to be held July 29-31 at Chicago Hilton and Towers, will feature exciting sessions on the major forces altering our future--and on how we can get a grip on these forces of change so that we can create better futures for ourselves, our families, our organizations, and the world.

DONATE ONLINE at https://www.wfs.org/donateol.htm and indicate that your donation should go to "WFS educational and youth programs."

REGISTRATION NOW:  https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
SEE PRELIMINARY PROGRAM: http://www.wfs.org/WF2005_preliminary.pdf

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CLICK OF THE MONTH: WILSON CENTER FORESIGHT AND GOVERNANCE PROJECT
http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?fuseaction=topics.home&topic_id=1414

Making critical policy decisions on issues with long-term impacts is nothing to play around about--unless you're participating in a "Serious Games Day" event at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Computer games for first-response training, as well as for budgeting and recruitment issues, were under observation at the recent event, which brought game developers and policy makers together.e research, and a new project focusing on the environmental and health impacts of emerging nanotechnologies.

Other events coordinated by the Center's Foresight and Governance Project have included seminars on the Internet economy, developments in human genom

Web visitors may download audio and video presentations of many of the Project's events, as well as event summaries and papers.

The Project is led by David Rejeski, whose policy analysis experience includes work with the RAND Corporation and the Environmental Protection Agency, where he served as head of the Futures Studies Unit and is a member of the Science Advisory Board.

BONUS CLICK: LOOKING FORWARD, A Web Resource for Foresight in Government, the Wilson Center Foresight and Governance Project's concisely organized links page:
http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/lookingforward/index.htm

AGELESS AGING--AND OTHER PREVIEWS FROM THE FUTURIST
With better health than previous generations, baby boomers will likely stay in the workforce longer and remain active consumers, according to Age Wave president Ken Dychtwald.

Among the businesses that could benefit from the trend are antiaging spas, cosmeceuticals and nutraceuticals, and "Silver Seals"--teams of elders hired to solve problems, writes Dychtwald in "Ageless Aging: The Next Era of Retirement," in the July-August 2005 issue of THE FUTURIST magazine.

Also in the this issue, labor writer Sam Pizzigati points out that income disparities lead to discontent--even among the super-rich who must live like prisoners in gated communities. But many people balk at the notion of income redistribution to address these disparities. A "maximum wage" law that limits incomes to no more than 10 times the minimum wage, heavily taxing all income above that amount, is Pizzigati's proposal, outlined in "The Rich and the Rest: The Growing Concentration of Wealth."

And nanotechnology researcher J. Storrs Hall takes a realistic look at what this much-ballyhooed technology will be able to accomplish and what is likely out of reach. Possibilities include 100-kilometer towers, transcontinental flying cars, and countertop synthesizers that could create meat without animals, among other things. Impossibilities include personal spaceships in every garage and flawless three-ton diamonds, Hall writes in "What's Next for Nanotechnology."

The July-August 2005 issue of THE FUTURIST will be mailed to members after June 7. To ensure you receive your copy, join or renew your membership now: https://www.wfs.org/membord2.htm

Single copies of THE FUTURIST may also be purchased: https://www.wfs.org/futuristorder.htm

WFS AND THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
World Future Society President Tim Mack has just returned from Korea, where he spoke on digital communities at the Seoul Digital Forum 2005 and World ICT Summit, held May 18-20. He was joined there by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and WFS board member John Naisbitt, author of MEGATRENDS.

The forum drew together leading technology companies such as Lucent, Microsoft, and Siemens to discuss the global impact of digital technology on society and the world economy. Following the forum, WFS held discussions with Asian media groups on global trends and on the potential for developing future-oriented programming.

DETAILS: Tim Mack, mailto:tmack@wfs.org

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