FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
June 2003
SIDE EFFECTS OF BATTLING TERRORISM
IN THIS ISSUE:
* Side Effects of Battling Terrorism
* Deadlier Earthquakes
* Bike-Friendly Cities
* Looming Labor Shortages
* America's Immigration Cities
* Click of the Month: Glossarist.comSubscribe to Futurist Update
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Terrorist incidents have actually declined in the post–Cold War era, but the likelihood of death or injury from terrorism has increased, according to game theorist Todd Sandler of the University of Southern California.What's changed since the end of the Cold War, which was dominated by the violence-deterring gamesmanship of two superpowers, is the growing threat of religious groups and other non-state "amateurs" operating outside the traditional domains of diplomacy.
Another change is the way governments respond to those threats, such as increasing security around major facilities. After September 11, Sandler and colleagues found that "terror increased as security measures were heightened, not the other way around. Terrorists just substituted places and people who were less protected."
Metal detectors in airports, for instance, may have helped reduce hijackings of airliners, but they increased hostage taking; fortification of embassies reduced attacks on the facilities but increased assassinations outside the protected compounds.
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/03/pr0345.htmDEADLIER EARTHQUAKES
Future earthquakes won't have to be more powerful to be more deadly. They will kill more people because there will be more people to kill, particularly in the world's largest cities.Half the world's megacities, with multimillion populations, are located near potential magnitude 7.5 earthquakes, points out Roger Bilham, a geological sciences professor at University of Colorado at Boulder. Some of the most vulnerable are Jakarta, Tehran, and Mexico City.
"A fourfold increase in the annual death toll from earthquakes between the seventeenth and twentieth centuries is linked to increased urbanization," Bilham told a recent meeting of the Seismological Society Association.
Earthquakes themselves are not the problem, but rather the collapse of buildings during quakes. As planners prepare to accommodate the world's growing populations, now is the time to build safer buildings for them to live in, Bilham concludes.
SOURCE: Roger Bilham, University of Colorado at Boulder
http://www.colorado.edu/GeolSci/faculty/bilham.html
http://www.colorado.edu/PublicRelations/NewsReleases/2003/2317.html
FREE BOOK FOR CONFERENCE REGISTRANTSAttendees of the World Future Society's 2003 annual meeting will receive a complimentary copy of a volume of essays assembled and edited by historian and futures scholar Howard F. Didsbury Jr.
21ST CENTURY OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES: AN AGE OF DESTRUCTION OR AN AGE OF TRANSFORMATION addresses key issues for a potentially better world tomorrow. Authors include independent futurist and economist Hazel Henderson, communitarian advocate Amitai Etzioni, diplomat J. Ørstrøm Møller, and many others.
RESERVE your copy of this thought-provoking volume--and your place at WorldFuture 2003 (July 18-20 at the Hyatt Regency San Francisco; register before June 30 to save $70 off the onsite registration fee):
(Note: Institutional and Comprehensive Professional Members of the Society will also receive a complimentary copy of the conference volume. For more information about these membership programs, visit http://www.wfs.org/member.htm)
BIKE-FRIENDLY CITIES
Corvallis, Oregon, and Palo Alto, California, are the two most bicycle-friendly communities in the United States, according to the League of American Bicyclists.Both these communities encourage bike-riding commuters: Corvallis has designated bike lanes on major commuter roads, and Palo Alto offers a $20 monthly stipend to city employees who bike to work.
The League's Bicycle Friendly Community Campaign is a grassroots effort to promote bicycle riding as part of a strategy to make communities more livable--and citizens more physically fit. Bike riding, according to the League, reduces traffic congestion, improves air quality, promotes public health, and--in the longer run--increases the quality of life as well as property values.
SOURCE: The League of American Bicyclists,
http://www.bicyclefriendlycommunity.org/pressrelease3.htmLOOMING LABOR SHORTAGES
Futurists looking beyond the current unemployment figures see a different problem over the horizon: worker shortages in a wide variety of fields.Widespread losses of manufacturing jobs in the United States over the past two years conceal a coming shortage of highly skilled workers that could undermine the nation's competitiveness, warns the National Association of Manufacturers. In a recent study, four out of five large and small manufacturers reported a "moderate to serious" shortage of qualified job applicants. Managers blame young people's lack of interest in manufacturing careers, which are stereotyped as "assembly-line" work rather than highly skilled occupations.
Restaurants and other food services will also have trouble filling openings. Human resources--specifically, finding, training, and keeping the best employees--was ranked the number-one concern for U.S. restaurant managers surveyed by the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration.
SOURCES: National Association of Manufacturers, http://www.nam.org/careers
Cornell University School of Hotel Administration,
http://www.hotelschool.cornell.edu
MORE on labor shortages: Workforce Stability Institute, http://www.workforcestability.org***************************************************
STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROGRAM
The World Future Society's Board of Directors is pleased to announce a new Student Membership Program.All full-time students under the age of 25 are now eligible to receive full membership benefits for just $20 per year.
Parents, grandparents, teachers, counselors, and other adults are also encouraged to enroll young futurists at the student rate. DETAILS: https://www.wfs.org/smporder.htm
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AMERICA'S IMMIGRATION CITIES
More than 90,000 people a year make their way to the Los Angeles–Long Beach area from outside the United States, putting L.A. well ahead of New York among the top U.S. welcoming metros. Nearly one-third of all people moving to L.A. are from abroad, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.Miami, too, is a big draw for immigrants: Some 59% of people moving to the southern Florida port city are from other countries. Rounding out the top five U.S. destinations are Chicago and Houston. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
CLICK OF THE MONTH:
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2003/cb03-80.html
GLOSSARIST, http://www.glossarist.com
Looking for the meaning of everything? Or just something very arcane? With language changing and vocabularies specializing, it's hard to keep up. Check out this intriguing site, where you will learn that "glossarist" means "a compiler of textual glosses or topical dictionaries."Behind this site is Australian Web designer and meaning hunter Warwick Bone (aka "Woz"), who has created a masterful portal linking you to Web-based glossaries covering a wide range of subjects, from life sciences to life insurance. (Unfortunately, though, none seems to give the meaning of life.)
Glossary categories include the arts, business, careers, education, computers, family, government, health, humanities, technology, science, transportation, and law. New subjects recently added to the site include body art, forestry, Web site promotion, ballet, geometry, and dreams.
FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2003, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.
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THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with some 25,000 members worldwide. Membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine and numerous other benefits, is just $45 per yea r ($20 for full-time students under age 25).
For more information on the Society and all its programs, publications, and services, contact Membership Director Susan Echard, mailto:sechard@wfs.org, or visit http://www.wfs.org.