FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
June 2001
IN THIS ISSUE: * Foresight in Government * The Hottest Thing in Electronics? * Small Business Futures in Peril * Top 10 21st-Century Futures * Joe Coates Leaves Coates & Jarratt * Click of the Month: Health Hoaxes and Rumors * Coming Up in the July-August FUTURIST * Notably QuotedFORESIGHT IN GOVERNMENT
After President George W. Bush spoke at the Electronics Industries Alliance dinner on May 8, 2001, THE FUTURIST asked him whether we would see more foresight in government."I'd like to see that, too," he said. "It'd be a miracle."
Governments, of course, have the power to apply resources and determination to making such "miracles" come true: Bush recently announced his intention to form the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), following in the tradition of presidents since Harry Truman to seek advice on science and technology.
Named as PCAST co-chair is Floyd Kvamme, a high-tech venture capitalist and former Apple Computer sales and marketing executive vice president.
DETAILS: Electronic Industries Alliance, http://www.eia.org; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, http://www.ostp.gov/PCAST/pcast.html
THE HOTTEST THING IN ELECTRONICS?
Among those listening to President Bush's address to the Electronic Industries Alliance was Loyd Ivey, CEO and chairman of the Mitek Corporation, a manufacturer of commercial audio products.An unabashed technophile, Ivey is also a vice-chairman of the Consumer Electronics Association, which is holding its CEO Summit June 20-22 at Lake Tahoe, California. "I use remote instant messaging--that's the hottest thing. I can see who's online at all of my plants and send them messages," he says. "I'm getting it for all my key sales people. I don't use my cellular anymore--too slow."
Instant messaging is hardly new, but with CEOs "getting the message," more employees will be expected to be available 24/7.
DETAILS: Loyd Ivey and Mitek Corporation, http://www.mitekcorp.com; Consumer Electronics Association, http://www.ce.org
SMALL BUSINESS FUTURES IN PERIL
Small businesses have been widely credited for the enormous success of the U.S. economy in the past decade, but the businesses themselves aren't doing enough to assure their own futures, warns a recent report from LIMRA International, a business marketing consulting association."The 1990s have been very good to small businesses," says Bob Barnoff, vice president and head of research at LIMRA. "At the same time, there are some distinct challenges that small businesses and their owners will increasingly have to deal with in coming years."
Population aging will prove a key challenge for small businesses looking for new, capable workers and trying to provide older workers with pension and retirement products, elder-care benefits, and other needs. And though half of all small business owners are over age 50, more than 40% have no formal plan for passing their businesses on after retirement, according to the report.
Small businesses represent more than 99% of all employers and provide about 75% of net new jobs, according to the Small Business Administration.
DETAILS: LIMRA International, http://www.limra.com; Small Business Administration, http://www.sba.gov/advo/stats/sbfaq.txt
TOP 10 21st-CENTURY FUTURES
Earl C. Joseph, chairman of the World Future Society's 2001 conference in Minneapolis in July, offers his list of the top emerging futures transforming society in a recent issue of the Minnesota Futurists' newsletter:1. E-Cybernation: Computers, TV, newspapers, and other media merge, along with their content--entertainment, news, training, etc.
2. Bio-Age: Biotechnology transforms medicine, eliminating many human ills.
3. Personal Robot Slaves: Sentient but obedient robots will become affordable and commonplace.
4. Intelligent Things: Computer chips will be embedded in all of our stuff--and in ourselves.
5. Exploiting Outer Space: Exploration of our neighboring planets will lead to settling, mining, and manufacturing.
6. Quantum, Nanotech, and Holodeck Computer Ages: Computers are destined to become a billion times more capable than today's systems.
7. Interactive TV Sitcoms: The entertainment industry will continue to be a key driver of technological advances.
8. Nonlethal Weapons: Public safety will increase thanks to advances in humane crime fighting and weapons technologies.
9. Redesigned Humans: Bioengineering will merge with computing to create healthier, wiser people.
10. Doubling of Human Life-Spans: Reversing the physical and mental processes of aging may soon be within our reach.MORE forecasts from the Minnesota Futurists: http://www.mnfuturists.org/futuring.htm REGISTER for the Minneapolis conference: click here.
JOE COATES LEAVES COATES & JARRATT
Joe Coates departed from his thriving futures firm Coates & Jarratt Inc. effective April 30, 2001, but will use his emeritus status to support C&J on an "as-needed" basis. He plans to work on independent writing assignments as well as "lectures, briefings, seminars, workshops, weddings, and bar mitzvahs" and "good old-fashioned hands-on consulting."Coates founded the company, then named J.F. Coates Inc., in 1979 and, with his wife (technology-assessment expert Vary Coates) and other colleagues, built it into one of the world's leading futures consulting firms.
Coates & Jarratt will continue under the leadership of principals Jennifer Jarratt and John Mahaffie. DETAILS: http://www.coatesandjarratt.com
CONTACT Joe Coates: http://www.coatesandjarratt.com/joe.htm or http://www.josephcoates.com (coming soon).
MEET Coates, Jarratt, and Mahaffie at the World Future Society's 2001 conference in Minneapolis: register online click here.
CLICK OF THE MONTH: Current Health-Related Hoaxes and Rumors, http://www.cdc.gov/hoax_rumors.htm
Do antiperspirants cause breast cancer? Can HIV be spread through the air? Can you get hantavirus from a soda can? On the Internet, rumors and hoaxes can too rapidly become accepted facts, sometimes with life-or-death consequences.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention devotes a page to clearing the air on these and other health-related hoaxes and rumors.
Also check out CDC's "In the News," "Travelers' Health," and "Health Topics A-Z" links for useful, up-to-date information.
FEATURED IN THE JULY-AUGUST 2001 FUTURIST
In the years ahead, prospective college students will scout their higher-education options on the Web. Then they'll spend much of their college experience in cyberspace: They'll apply, send transcripts, videoconference with advisers, enroll, apply for scholarships, select a roommate, pay tuition, attend classes, turn in assignments, do internships, take tests, graduate, meet corporate recruiters, network with other alumni, and eventually send donations to their alma maters--all online.Such is the vision of "The Webcentric University," described in the July-August 2001 FUTURIST by Samuel L. Dunn, vice president for academic affairs and professor of business and mathematics at Northwest Nazarene University.
Also in the July-August issue:
* Prime Minister Tony Blair outlines "Britain's Green Agenda" in World Trends & Forecasts, Environment.
* WFS President Edward Cornish ponders the existence or nonexistence of the future and shows what we can know about it in "How We Can Anticipate Future Events."
* In his Future View essay "The Good Society: Goals Beyond Money," Communitarian Network founder Amitai Etzioni reminds us that trying to become happy by buying more and more things is a Sisyphean exercise in futility.... and much more. The July-August 2001 issue of THE FUTURIST was mailed to subscribers on June 5.
NOTABLY QUOTED
Quoted in the July-August 2001 issue of THE FUTURIST:"Adding highway capacity to solve traffic congestion is like buying larger pants to deal with your weight problem," says Michael Replogle of Environmental Defense, quoted by Worldwatch researcher Molly O'Meara Sheehan in her article, "Choosing the Future of Transportation."
FUTURIST UPDATE: NEWS & PREVIEWS FROM THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2001, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail info@wfs.org; Web site www.wfs.org.
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THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with some 30,000 members worldwide. Its mission is to help individuals and organizations identify and understand key trends and to create their preferred futures. Membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine and numerous other benefits, is just $39 per year. For more information on the Society and all its programs, publications, and services, contact Membership Director Susan Echard, sechard@wfs.org, or visit www.wfs.org.