FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
June 2000

IN THIS ISSUE:

* The Post-PC World
* Net Overtaking Newspaper Classifieds
* Ethical Engineering
* Globalization: For Better or For Worse?
* Potatoes in Space

THE POST-PC WORLD

Move over, personal computers. Portable information devices that have the power of a PC, the networking of the Internet, the vivid images of television, and the convenience of the telephone are becoming more popular, says futurist William E. Halal of the George Washington University Forecast.

Noting that PC sales are growing by only 20 percent a year while portable sales are expected to increase by 60 percent, Halal predicts that in a few years roughly a third of computer users will use portable devices rather than PCs "for making telephone calls, sending e-mail, watching video, transmitting documents and data, conferencing, and other forms of computation and communication in general." Technology watchers already envision a "post-PC world," he says.

Halal's predictions are part of a special report, "The Top 10 Emerging Technologies," to be published in the July-August 2000 issue of THE FUTURIST. The report, based on the work of Halal's research team The George Washington University Forecast, predicts technological breakthroughs for the next decade and beyond. For more information on the GW Forecast, visit http://GWForecast.gwu.edu. To order extra copies of the report ($4 each or $3.60 for members, available after June 7) go to http://www.wfs.org/shelford.htm.

NET OVERTAKING NEWSPAPER CLASSIFIEDS

The newspaper classified section may become obsolete as more and more ads migrate to the Internet, says John T. Reed, editor of REAL ESTATE INVESTOR'S MONTHLY.

"The Internet makes far more sense for classified ads than a newspaper," Reed says. "The Net is almost free, searchable, interactive, faster, worldwide, and offers far more room to provide information than the often comically abbreviated ... newspaper classifieds." This trend will cause an already ailing newspaper industry to lose more revenue, Reed believes.

Real estate and help-wanted ads are two of the most popular types of classifieds moving to the Web, Reed notes. A recently released survey from the National Association of Realtors shows that nearly one in four home buyers used the Internet last year to buy a house, which amounts to an 18-fold increase over four years. The vast majority of Net-connected home buyers (89 percent) were looking for home listings. For more information, go to http://www.johntreed.com/realestate.html.

ETHICAL ENGINEERING

In the future, engineers will think more about ethics -- that is, the social and environmental impact of the technology they produce -- predicts Purdue University engineering professor Normand Laurendeau.

"Since the 1960s, technology has often been viewed negatively, especially with respect to its effect on the environment," Laurendeau says. The public will increasingly demand that industry manufacture products not just for profit but with an eye toward the greater good.

Ethical questions about energy will be especially important in the future, Laurendeau believes. "As we develop new sources of energy to replace fossil fuels, and as the costs of those new energy sources increase," he says, "questions will arise: How can we prevent energy costs from further dividing the poor and the rich in our society?" Laurendeau's comments are part of a series of predictions about twenty-first-century engineering presented by Purdue engineers. For more information, visit http://news.uns.purdue.edu/UNS/html4ever/0005.Engineering.tips.html

GLOBALIZATION: FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE?

Globalization and its foes have drawn headlines in the past year with their "either-or" arguments. But what will the future really look like in an age of borderless, free-flowing information and finance, pollution and terrorism? Three new books deal with this increasingly urgent issue:

In THE END OF INTERNATIONALISM OR WORLD GOVERNANCE? (Praeger, 2000) author J. Ørstrøm Møller, the Danish ambassador to Singapore, argues that the pendulum of civilization has swung between nationalism and internationalism. Since the end of World War II, that pendulum has swung toward increased internationalism, but more recently there has been a growing backlash, with people questioning "whether the international system does indeed deliver the goods." Møller outlines a model for internationalism that moves more boldly toward world governance. The alternative, he believes, would be chaos, continued clashes of civilizations, and the regrouping of nation-states--and the reemergence of their ancient conflicts. Order THE END OF INTERNATIONALISM OR WORLD GOVERNANCE? from the Futurist Bookstore (http://www.wfs.org/bookstor.htm) for $59 ($53.50 for Society members), cat. no. B-2346.

In MUSTARD SEED VERSUS McWORLD (Baker House, 1999), Christian futurist Tom Sine expresses concern about globalization's impacts on community. He asks, "What will be the long-term costs to our families and communities of allowing Godzilla-size corporations to swallow farms, shops, and the economies of whole communities? Do we really need to trust the future of our families and communities to the magic of the marketplace, the forces of globalization, and the centralizing appetites of colossus corporations?" Order MUSTARD SEED VERSUS McWORLD from the Futurist Bookstore (http://www.wfs.org/bookstor.htm) for $14.99 ($13.50 for Society members), cat. no. B-2334.

And in GLOBALIZATION ON TRIAL (Kumarian Press, 2000), international affairs scholar Farhang Rajaee challenges the belief that equates globalization with an expansion of capitalism. "Globalization has not homogenized the world," he writes, "nor has its universalization affected everyone in the same fashion." Globalization presents opportunities and dangers alike, and the challenge is to respond proactively to both. Order GLOBALIZATION ON TRIAL online from http://www.wfs.org/specials.htm.

POTATOES IN SPACE

An experiment to test how well potatoes grow in simulated Martian soil was sent aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis on its May 19 launch. The experiment will help pave the way for human colonies on Mars, the Moon, or in space.

The "Spuds in Space" experiment is the first test of the simulated soil, which is composed of "natural materials that approximate, to the best of our current knowledge, the soils of the Moon and Mars," explains Carlton Allen of NASA, who helped create the soil. The experiment was designed by Native American high school-students from Idaho as part of an educational initiative to give students more access to space.

For more information, visit http://www.wff.nasa.gov/~sspp/sem/sem.html.

FUTURIST UPDATE will bring you the latest futurist news, book reviews, and Society happenings every month. Readers have permission to forward copies of FUTURIST UPDATE to friends and colleagues providing they forward the entire document. The editors welcome your input to this new effort, so feel free to contact them at mailto:info@wfs.org. Subscriptions are free with membership. For prospective members, we offer a limited three-month trial subscription. To subscribe or unsubscribe, send an e-mail message to mailto:majordomo@wfs.org with "subscribe futurist-update" or "unsubscribe futurist-update" in the body.

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