News & Previews from the World Future Society January 2007 (Vol. 8, No. 1)

In This Issue: • Money and Disaster • A Global Land Squeeze • Obesity May Bankrupt Health Systems • Tips for Scenario Writers • Click of the Month: Competitive Futures Blog • News from the Futurist Community

MONEY AND DISASTER A terrorist attack or a hurricane can severely disrupt financial services vital to citizens' ability to recover. When the power is out and communications infrastructures are down, plastic cards are useless to people needing money right away. Cash is king. So the Credit Union National Association has developed a new national disaster-preparedness plan to coordinate credit unions' responses in emergency situations. The Credit Union System National Disaster Plan builds on lessons learned from such catastrophes as the Oklahoma City bombing, 9/11, and Hurricane Katrina. For instance, there should be an outline of "next step" activities and a triage team to evaluate and coordinate assistance to credit unions and to coordinate with federal agencies. DETAILS: Credit Union National Association, http://www.cuna.org/press/press_releases/cuna_121106.html A GLOBAL LAND SQUEEZE As deserts expand and sea levels rise, land area that can support human habitation is shrinking all around the world. The result is dangerously increasing concentrations of people in already overburdened places, warns Lester R. Brown, president of Earth Policy Institute. Desertification is claiming former grasslands throughout central Asia due to poor farming and land-management efforts, such as overgrazing and firewood gathering, says Brown. China is losing its productive land to deserts at an accelerating rate, with dire potential for future famines. Rising sea levels due to global warming may be a bigger threat to human populations, however, since much of the world's population is concentrated in low-lying coastal cities and rice-growing deltas. A one-meter rise in sea levels would threaten hundreds of cities, including London, Alexandria, Bangkok, Shanghai, New York, and Washington, D.C. Unless the trends are reversed, Brown warns, our shrinking planet will see more civil conflicts over land and living space. SOURCE: Earth Policy Institute, http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update61.htm FUTURISTS TO CONVENE IN ONE OF AMERICA'S "MOST LITERATE CITIES" Minneapolis and its Twin City, St. Paul, were recently named two of the top five "Most Literate Cities" in America. What better milieu could there be to stimulate your thinking about the future? The World Future Society's 2007 conference, "WorldFuture 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century," will be held July 29-31 at the Hilton Minneapolis and Towers in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Among the thought-provoking sessions planned are: "The Future Impact of Nanomedicine," led by nanotechnology consultant Raj Bawa; "Virtual World, Real Opportunities," with Sandra Burchstead, founder of Prospectiva Inc., and Michele Bowman of Global Foresight Associates; "The Evolution and Future Direction of Marriage," with scholars Tom and Jeanne Lombardo; and "The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism and the Abrahamic Religions," led by religious studies scholar Thomas R. McFaul. LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2007main.htm SAVE $200 off the on-site registration fee! Register by December 29  https://www.wfs.org/2007regform.htm OBESITY MAY BANKRUPT HEALTH SYSTEMS The multiple health problems attributed to obesity could potentially bankrupt national health services in places where obesity is increasing, warn doctors writing for the BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL. More than half the adult population in the United Kingdom is overweight, and more than 20% are obese. The authors estimate that obesity accounts for at least 9% of a country's health-care costs. Preventing obesity in the first place is the most economical long-term solution, the authors argue, recommending that the food industry be more proactive in preventing obesity. Government, too, could curtail advertising of "energy-dense" foods and promote education programs that improve diet and physical activity. SOURCE: "Obesity--Can we turn the tide?" by Mike Lean et al. BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL (December 16, 2006), http://www.bmj.com/content/vol333/issue7581/press_release.shtml http://press.psprings.co.uk/bmj/december/prac1261.pdf TIPS FOR SCENARIO WRITERS Walt Disney "imagineer" Joseph Tankersley shares tips for creating more-powerful scenarios in FUTURETAKES, the electronic newsletter of the World Future Society's U.S. National Capital Region chapter: Stories need a hero: Protagonists serve as our avatars, or proxies, in the future we are trying to create. They don't need to be amazing, but they should be courageous, advises Tankersley. Fill your future story with conflict: Wild cards, opposing factions, and countertrends are all a part of reality--today's and tomorrow's. Beware of negativity: In drama, negative scenarios are easier to create, but in futuring, it is a positive ending that may have more psychological impact. "No matter how brilliant your logic, or exhaustive your analysis," says Tankersley, "people do not change to avoid disaster. People change because they see a brighter future." SOURCE: "Ten Tips for Creating More Powerful Future Stories" by Joseph Tankersley, FUTURETAKES (Late Fall 2006): http://www.natcapwfs.org/futuretakes.htm CLICK OF THE MONTH: COMPETITIVE FUTURES BLOG http://competitivefutures.blogspot.com/index.html. Is futuring dangerous? What would happen if a cure for diabetes were found? What if we could use RFID technology (radio-frequency identification) to track the movement of prescription drugs? These are a few of the thought-provoking issues pondered by futurist Eric Garland, author of FUTURE, INC., in a blog for his consulting firm Competitive Futures. So, IS futuring dangerous? Garland responded to an interviewer who pressed him on the "riskiness" of getting out a "crystal ball": "You risk being wrong.... But isn't it riskier to never look at the future?" He points out that few leaders look back on their careers regretting the time they spent thinking about the future. "You do hear the phrase, 'If only we saw it coming sooner.'" BONUS CLICK: Order FUTURE, INC.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What's NEXT by Eric Garland: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814408974/thefuturistbooks NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY CULTURE AS INNOVATION – THE SEARCH FOR CREATIVE POWER IN ECONOMIES AND SOCIETIES: The 9th International Conference of Finland Futures Research Centre and Finland Futures Academy in Collaboration with Turku 2011 – Finland’s Candidate for the European Capital of Culture 2011 will be held June 6-8, 2007, in Turku, Finland. Themes for the conference include innovativeness and creative processes in economies, cultures and societies of the future, the power of creativity and culture for sustainable development, and futures research methodology in the study of the creative economy. Deadline for abstract submission is January 31, 2007; notification of acceptance is February 16. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL FOR PAPERS, AND REGISTRATION: http://www.tse.fi/tutu/conference2007 FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2006, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org. Editor: Cindy Wagner Assistant Editor: Patrick Tucker Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish Webmaster: Sarah Warner Vice President, Membership/Conference Operations:  Susan Echard To subscribe, send an e-mail message to mailto:majordomo@wfs.org with "subscribe futurist-update" in the BODY of the message. To unsubscribe or change your e-mail address, send message to Jeff Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org. Submit feedback at http://www.wfs.org/fbjan07.htm. The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $49 per year, or $20 for full-time students under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also offered; contact Society headquarters for details: http://www.wfs.org.