LESSONS
FROM INDONESIAN DISASTER
Disasters such as the deadly December 26 earthquake and tsunamis off
Indonesia may never be prevented, but science, foresight, and planning may help mitigate
their effects. For instance, some futurists have suggested that humans may reverse the
trend of congregating in large cities or along coastlines, where larger numbers of people
become vulnerable to catastrophic storms and quakes.
"Every big tsunami is a 'surprise', but that doesn't mean we can't
plan to survive them," says technology writer Douglas Mulhall, author of OUR
MOLECULAR FUTURE. In that book, Mulhall predicted that it would take such a globalized
catastrophe to shake governments and industries into using inexpensive, cutting-edge
technology, such as an affordable, globalized tsunami warning network, to prevent massive
fatalities.
"The World Future Society extends its deepest sympathy to all those
affected, including the members of our many chapters in the Asia/Pacific region,"
said Society President Timothy C. Mack.
CONTACT Asia/Pacific World Future Society chapters: http://www.wfs.org/chapasia.htm
THE IMPORTANCE OF PRESCHOOL
The United States needs to increase its investments in preschool-aged
children, according to economists James Heckman and Dimitriy Masterov of the University of
Chicago. They project a grim economic future as the U.S. workforce loses the educational
skills necessary to compete in the global market, the groundwork for which is laid at
young ages.
Participants in high-quality preschool programs experienced increased
achievement test scores and higher rates of graduation from high school. They also show
decreases in time spent in special education classes and experience with crime and
delinquency. These and other gains persist into adulthood, and the research shows that
preschool benefits not only participants but families and society at large.
"It is the large social benefits for the general public--stemming
from the savings to taxpayers, victims of crime, and employers--that make the firmest case
for [preschool] programs. Early interventions can add great value to the output of
American society," Heckman and Masterov write in a paper for the Committee for
Economic Development.
If current trends continue, the U.S. economy will add many fewer
educated persons to the workforce in the next two decades than it did in the past two
decades, they warn.
SOURCE: Committee for Economic Development, http://www.ced.org. "The
Productivity Argument for Investing in Young Children" by James J. Heckman and
Dimitriy V. Masterov is available online at
http://www.ced.org/docs/report/report_ivk_heckman_2004.pdf
DEVELOPING WORLD INFLUENCES INFOTECH
Rapid growth in the developing world is fueling a rebound in information
and communications technologies (ICT) and outpacing the global economy as a whole.
Led by India and its success in the software-development market, Asia is
projected to be a powerhouse in ICT spending through 2007, says a new study by the World
Information Technology and Services Alliance (WITSA). Asian ICT is expected to grow to
$811.1 billion in 2007--a 9.3% annual rate of growth. Eastern Europe is projected to grow
at a rate of 11.9% annually, and Africa is projected to grow at 8.8% annually. North
America is expected to see the slowest rate of growth (6.7%) behind western Europe (8.7%),
the Middle East (8.3%), and Latin America (6.8%).
"As [ICT] spending increases in the developing world, those nations
are clamoring for a greater voice. The last two years have marked an emergence for these
nations in the policies and politics of the Internet," says Harris N. Miller,
president of WITSA.
SOURCE: Information Technology Association of America,
http://www.itaa.org/news/pr/PressRelease.cfm?ReleaseID=1101230136
AMERICANS FEEL LESS ALIENATED
Americans report feeling less alienated than they have in the recent
past, according to the latest Harris Poll's Alienation Index--a measure of responses to
five key issue areas. Fewer Americans in 2004 believed:
- "Most people with power try to take advantage of people like
you" (53%, down sharply from 60% in 2003).
- "What you think doesn't count very much anymore" (51%, down
from 56%).
- "The people running the country don't really care what happens to
you" (44%, down from 46%).
- "You're left out of things going on around you" (34%, down from
40%).
- "The rich get richer and the poor get poorer" (68%, down
insignificantly from 69%).
The total Alienation Index is 50, down four points from 2003 and one of
the lowest levels of alienation since 1973.
The most-alienated segments of the U.S. population are African Americans
(Alienation Index 74), Democrats (67), people with household incomes of $25,000 or less
(63), and Hispanics (62).
SOURCE: Harris Interactive,
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=525
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SAVE $150 IF YOU REGISTER NOW!
Register before February 28 for WorldFuture 2005: Foresight, Innovation,
and Strategy in order to save $150 off the on-site fee!
The World Future Society's annual meeting, to be held in Chicago July
29-31, will be packed with vital information and stimulating ideas. Plan to come early so
you can take advantage of the preconference courses, where you'll expand your futuring
skills and perspective, learn how other cultures view the future, or develop new
creative-thinking tools to improve your foresight and strategy.
Society members should soon be receiving the latest conference brochure
in the mail, including full information about sessions, special events, courses, and
tours. Visit the conference Web page for the latest information.
LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2005main.htm
REGISTRATION NOW: https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
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FOOD FORECASTS FOR 2005
Family dining will be big in the coming year, a panel of international
food futurists told Art Siemering, editor of the online Food Channel Trendwire.
The "slow food" movement will encourage families to spend more
time eating together at home, according to Robin Kline, a food-industry consultant in Des
Moines. The desire for community and improved family relations, as well as a
better-organized fight against obesity, will drive more families to "sup"
together.
More restaurants and cafes will offer no-carb, low-carb, gluten-free,
and vegetarian entries on their menus, as more emphasis is given to the connection between
good food and healthy living, says Lauraine Jacobs, a food writer in New Zealand. Growing
demand for organic farm foods will boost the popularity of goat and sheep cheese.
Brining--saturating meat in a salt solution to seal in juices--may
become a popular food-preparation choice, believes Helene Burton, a Minneapolis culinary
consultant. "While brined turkey peaked at Thanksgiving, more and more chefs are
expanding their brining options to include pork roast, lamb, pheasant, duck, large whole
fish--and even guinea hen," she notes. "By late 2005, my hunch is that
we’ll see ready-brined turkey and meats in the refrigerator cases."
And Marge Perry, a food journalist in New York City, predicts that we'll
be hearing and reading more about gastric-bypass surgery. "Maybe an increase in the
procedure’s popularity will spawn a new Gastric Bypass Diet," she speculates.
SOURCE: The Food Channel Trendwire, http://www.foodchannel.com
CLICK OF THE MONTH: The SCOTS Project
http://www.scottishcorpus.ac.uk
A "gallus" and "muckle" (daring and large) effort to
preserve Scottish culture for the future was launched, fittingly, on St. Andrew’s Day
(November 30), with this new Web site. The result is "braw" (splendid).
SCOTS, the Scottish Corpus of Texts and Speech project, is being touted
as a unique online collection designed to instill pride in Scotland and bolster national
identity.
The new resource captures the language of Scotland by bringing together
written, spoken, audio, and video texts. This is the first time that such a large
collection in the Scots language--prose, poetry, drama, essays, correspondence, and
business writing--has been brought together online.
Audio and video material comes complete with transcriptions and access
to the original sound or video. All texts are accompanied by cultural and social
information about the text and its author. The corpus now contains a half a million words.
BONUS CLICK: While the
SCOTS project provides the actual context of uniquely Scottish words, it does not define
them. So be sure to check out the Scottish Vernacular Dictionary on FirstFoot.com:
http://www.firstfoot.com/php/glossary/phpglossar_0.8/index.php?letter=a
