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FUTURIST UPDATE

News & Previews from the World Future Society

January 2000

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WELCOME TO FUTURIST UPDATE

This is the debut issue of FUTURIST UPDATE, a new benefit to members of the World Future Society. FUTURIST UPDATE will bring you the latest futurist news, book reviews, and Society happenings every month. Readers have permission to forward copies of FUTURIST UPDATE to friends and colleagues providing they forward the entire document. I welcome your input to this new effort, so feel free to contact me with suggestions at cwagner@wfs.org. Subscriptions are free with membership. For prospective members, we offer a limited three-month trial subscription. To subscribe or unsubscribe, send an e-mail message to majordomo@wfs.org with "subscribe futurist-update" or "unsubscribe futurist-update" in the body. -- Jeff Minerd, Editor.

IN THIS ISSUE:

* A Clone by 2020?

* Forecasts from Sir Arthur C. Clarke

* Government Cautions About E-Health Sites

* Transgenic Goats May Produce Spider Silk

* The Next 20 Years in Technology

* World Future Society News

A CLONE BY 2020?

A human clone will be born in 20 to 50 years, if scientific work continues at its current pace, says James Watson, who along with Francis Crick discovered the structure of DNA. Watson makes his prediction in the book Predictions: 30 Great Minds on the Future. Published by the Oxford University Press, the book collects the thoughts of people like Noam Chomsky, Richard Dawkins, Umberto Eco, and others on what life might be like in this new millennium.

Watson is not enthusiastic about cloning--it would make men unnecessary in the reproductive process, for one thing. But he is looking forward to the relief of suffering that he believes will come about from understanding the genetic component of diseases such as schizophrenia. (That's what he's working on these days at Cold Spring Harbor laboratory in Long Island, New York.) Watson is dismissive of those who think genetic knowledge is dangerous. "All information can be misused," he argues. "Cars and electric light bulbs can be misused. We are trying to get this information so we can combat schizophrenia. I think the real ethical issue is not its misuse but the possibility of not using it."

PREDICTIONS can be ordered via the Society's Web site at www.wfs.org/specials.htm.

FORECASTS FROM SIR ARTHUR CLARKE

Science-fiction writer and preeminent futurist Arthur C. Clarke, who was recently knighted by Queen Elizabeth II, has just published a book collecting 64 years worth of his nonfiction essays. Entitled Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds!, the volume includes some of his more well-known and astonishingly accurate forecasts, such as the advent of communications satellites.

One highlight of the book is his account of the making of 2001: A Space Odyssey. As many science-fiction fans know, Stanley Kubrick's film was based on Sir Arthur's short story, "The Sentinel," which had been submitted to a BBC story competition in 1948--and lost! Clarke ends the 558-page collection with several intriguing forecasts for the twenty-first century, including:

2013: Prince Harry of England becomes the first royal family member to fly in space.

2016: All existing currencies are abolished.

2017: On December 16, his 100th birthday, Sir Arthur C. Clarke becomes one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.

Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds! Collected Essays 1934-1998 by Arthur C. Clarke (St. Martin's Press. 1999. 558 pages. 29 b/w photographs) is available from the Futurist Bookstore for $35 ($31.95 for World Future Society members), cat. no. B-2319. To order, contact the Futurist Bookstore at 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274; e-mail info@wfs.org; Web site www.wfs.org/bkshelf.htm.

GOVERNMENT CAUTIOUS ABOUT E-HEALTH SITES

The increasing amount of health information--and misinformation--on the Internet is raising concerns in the government about potential impacts on the public's health.

With a free flow of information and advice from sources such as online publications and chat groups, patients may come to view their doctors and other health-care professionals as just "one of many sources of authoritative medical knowledge," suggests a recent U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report. ("Wired for Health and Well-Being," www.scipich.org/pubs/finalreport.htm.)

Some experts, such as physician Tom Ferguson (www.healthy.net/selfcare), laud the information revolution in health care, arguing that these new sources make patients more informed and responsible for their own health.

But relying on cybersources rather than a patient's own physician for medical information could be dangerous: After just a few hours of surfing the Web, the Federal Trade Commission (www.ftc.gov) turned up hundreds of Web sites promulgating false or deceptive claims concerning treatments for heart disease, cancer, AIDS, diabetes, arthritis, and multiple sclerosis--claims that might not be recognized as deceptive by the average Web surfer.

"Hopeful and sometimes desperate consumers spend millions of dollars on unproven, deceptively marketed, and often useless 'miracle cures,' and the Internet should not become the newest medium for this age-old problem," says Jodie Bernstein, director of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection.

Further Reading: "Health Care Faces a Dose of Change" by Clement Bezold, THE FUTURIST, April 1999. "Health Care in Cyberspace: Patients Lead a Revolution" by Tom Ferguson, THE FUTURIST, November-December 1997. Back issues of THE FUTURIST may be ordered for $4.95 each plus $3 postage and handling from the Futurist Bookstore. Call 1-301-656-8274.

TRANSGENIC GOATS MAY PRODUCE SPIDER SILK

What do you get when you cross a goat with a spider?

It sounds like the opening line of a joke, but one Canadian biotechnology company plans to do just that in hopes of creating a lucrative new product. The Nexia Biotechnologies company of Quebec plans to harvest spider silk for medical and industrial use by implanting the gene for spider silk into goats, whose mammary glands are similar to spider silk glands, and then extracting the silk from the goats' milk.

Spider silk is stronger and lighter than steel, biodegradable, and does not provoke immune responses from the human body. Nexia plans to use its transgenically produced spider silk, which it calls Biosteel, for everything from superstrong sutures to fiber optic cable to bullet-proof clothing.

Why not just get the silk directly from the spiders? Because you can't create a spider farm: The arachnids are too territorial and aggressive. In addition, a goat can produce much more silk, two to 15 grams per liter of milk, than a tiny spider. Nexia is experimenting with methods of transferring the spider gene to goat embryos, and president Jeffrey Turner says he expects to be selling Biosteel by 2001.

For more information, visit Nexia Biotechnologies at www.nexiabiotech.com.

THE NEXT 20 YEARS IN TECHNOLOGY

What new technologies can we reasonably expect to see by 2020? Virtual reality stations that provide artificial input for all the senses will be used not only for entertainment but for business meetings, shopping, family gatherings, education, and more, according to British Telecomm's resident futurist Ian D. Pearson. Pearson also predicts home health monitoring systems that will scan your body for diseases as you shower. And the fast-changing world of computer technology will produce artificial intelligence equal to that of humans. In fact, most new knowledge and scientific discoveries will be made by computers. These and other of Pearson's predictions appear in the January-February 2000 issue of THE FUTURIST. Pearson's Technology Timeline appears on his own site at www.labs.bt.com/people/pearsonid.

WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY NEWS

EXPERT WILL DISCUSS AMERICANS' USE OF TIME: One of the foremost experts on Americans' use of time, John Robinson, co-author of the book TIME FOR LIFE, will address the Washington, DC chapter of the World Future Society at 10 a.m. Saturday, January 29. Hosted by Society vice president Graham Molitor, this meet-the-author book discussion will be held at the Molitor home, 9208 Wooden Bridge Road, Potomac, MD 20854. The event is free and open to Society members. For directions or more information, call 301-762-5174.

New Directory LISTS 1,400 FUTURISTS: The Society is publishing an updated edition of its directory of professional futurists. The Futurist Directory: A Guide to Individuals Who Write, Speak, or Consult About the Future, includes entries on almost 1,400 individuals from some 60 countries. Professional members in good standing will automatically receive a copy. Copies can be purchased by calling 1-800-989-8274. ($39.50 for members and $55 for nonmembers.)

SEARCH ABSTRACTS ON OUR Web site: Abstracts from Future Survey, searchable by keyword, are now available on the Society’s Web site. Visit the archive at www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm. In addition, you can discuss futurist ideas on our new forum, www.wfs.org/Ideas.htm. Look for a redesign of the site in the very near future.

EDITORS PICK TOP FORECASTS: "Outlook 2000" is a collection of forecasts culled from THE FUTURIST magazine over the past year. The 16-page illustrated "Outlook 2000" report came free to members as part of the December 1999 issue of THE FUTURIST. Nonmembers may purchase a copy for $4. Call 301-656-8274 or visit www.wfs.org.

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FUTURIST UPDATE is published monthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814. Telephone 1-301-656-8274. Fax 1-301-951-0394. E-mail info@wfs.org. Material in this newsletter may be reprinted provided that credit is given to the World Future Society. The Society is an international association of some 30,000 people interested in studying how social and technological developments will affect the future. The Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, educational and scientific organization devoted to helping people everywhere understand trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future. Membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine (6 issues/year) and numerous other benefits, is available for $39 (U.S.) membership department.

To receive information on the World Future Society, its programs and publications, send an e-mail to echard@wfs.org; visit www.wfs.org; or call 1-800-989-8274.