News & Previews from the World Future Society
February 2006 (Vol. 7, No. 2)

In This Issue:
• Climate Change Triggers Killer Fungus
• Psychologists and the Stock Market
• Shorter Life Spans for Tech Products
• Better Bodies and Brains, and a Booth to Cuddle In
• Click of the Month: Ask Philosophers
• News from the Futurist Community

CLIMATE CHANGE TRIGGERS KILLER FUNGUS

Climate change is now believed to be triggering outbreaks of a fungus fatal to amphibians, wiping out entire frog populations, according to a study funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

The rapid disappearance of amphibians has been raising ecological alarms since the late 1980s, and climate change has been a prime suspect, though a highly complex one. Scientists working in Costa Rica report that chytrid, a skin fungus deadly to harlequin frogs, has found more-favorable conditions--cooler days and warmer nights--in mountain cloud forests where the Earth's rising temperatures have led to more clouds.

Nearly a third of the world's approximately 6,000 species of frogs, toads, and salamanders face extinction, according to the latest Global Amphibian Assessment. As scientists learn more about the relationship between climate change and the spread of infectious disease, new areas of research will open for rescuing not just amphibians, but many other animals, suggests Sam Scheiner, NSF program director.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=105707&org=NSF&from=news
See also NATURE (January 12, 2006).

PSYCHOLOGISTS AND THE STOCK MARKET

Psychologists may be more-successful investors than other presumably smart people, like physicists, mathematicians, and even economists.

In a study of shareholder behavior, psychologists were found less likely to follow the "herd" instinct to buy shares of stocks they deemed overvalued. As a result, psychologists earned three times as much as economists and physicists did in a stock exchange simulation, reports economist Andreas Roider of the University of Bonn.

In the simulation, psychologists were particularly inclined to believe a share was overvalued due to the irrational behavior of other investors, so they chose to buck the trend. By contrast, physicists were more inclined to trust the "cool rationality of other participants--and thus fared worse," says Roider.

SOURCE: University of Bonn http://www.uni-bonn.de/en/News/72_2006.html

SHORTER LIFE SPANS FOR TECH PRODUCTS

The life cycle of technologies will continue to shorten, and when a product hits the market now its shelf life is half of what it once was, according to David Smith, vice president of Technology Futures Inc. The group cited shrinking shelf life as one of the top trends to watch in technology.

The key to success with product development is to be intensively innovative earlier in the process, says Smith. Among the trends he sees making an impact are the growing integration of devices, especially those for electronic gaming and MP3 players.

Particularly exciting to tech consumers is the ability to program their own game, music, and other content and to do so on the device of their own choosing. And since many of those choices come by way of peer-to-peer networks for information and content sharing, technologies have a growing role to play in community building--and vice versa.

SOURCE: Technology Futures Inc., http://www.tfi.com

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CALL FOR PAPERS: CREATING GLOBAL STRATEGIES
FOR HUMANITY'S FUTURE

March 6 is the deadline for submitting a paper to the World Future Society's 2006 conference volume, Creating Global Strategies for Humanity's Future.

Especially welcome are essays that reflect the conference theme and/or program topics: Health, Medicine, and Human Development; Society and Culture; Resources and Environment; Learning and Education; Values and Religion; Technology and Science; Business and Careers; Governance and Communities; and Futuring Methodologies and Processes.

The volume will be distributed free to all attendees at the conference, to be held July 28-30 in Toronto, as well as to all Institutional and Comprehensive Professional members of the Society.

VOLUME SUBMISSION GUIDELINES: http://www.wfs.org/2006volguidelines.htm

LEARN MORE ABOUT THE CONFERENCE: http://www.wfs.org/2006main.htm

REGISTER NOW, SAVE $150:
https://www.wfs.org/2006regform.htm

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BETTER BODIES AND BRAINS, AND A BOOTH TO CUDDLE IN

In a culture of accelerating change and moral confusion, many consumers will seek the comfort of their "cocoons," while others embrace the most extreme forms of change, says marketing consultant Faith Popcorn, founder BrainReserve. Among her forecasts:

• America's Next Top Surgery. The growing interest in both cutting-edge medical advances and reality-TV competitions like American Idol will lead to spectator surgeries in which patients must compete for transplants and other procedures. Only the media-friendliest will survive.
• Brain Fitness Boom Ahead. New evidence that mental agility enhances longevity will lead to a boom in brain trainers for improving your memory, "retort coaches" for sharpening your wit, and lunch breaks at work for cerebral drill sessions.
• Hugging Booths and High-Touch Service. As people form more relationships in virtual rather than real communities, the loss of the human touch may be keenly felt. To make up for it, airlines may hire actors to greet you with a hug and financial advisers may increasingly hold your hand through tough times--literally. But even some of these services could be automated: Look for mechanized hugging booths where phone booths once stood, says Popcorn.

SOURCE: Faith Popcorn's BrainReserve, http://www.faithpopcorn.com; e-mail mailto:future@faithpopcorn.com

CLICK OF THE MONTH: ASK PHILOSOPHERS
http://www.amherst.edu/askphilosophers/

If you want to understand reality (and not just reality TV), then one source might be the Web site created by Amherst College philosophy professor Alexander George.

Among the hundreds of questions fielded by a team of volunteer philosophers on call: "Assuming there is no afterlife, is it irrational to fear death?"; "What is the purpose of math?"; "Is there such a thing as absolute truth?"; and "Does the future exist in any knowable fashion?"

To the question about the knowability of the future, Peter Lipton of the University of Cambridge responded: "It's not very surprising that we believe we can know something about the future, since we have so often formed expectations that we have subsequently found to be satisfied."

The goal of the site is to spread the knowledge of philosophers to the world beyond academia, where fundamental questions about life and truth get little attention. "It's very important that philosophers get out more," says Lipton.

BONUS CLICK: http://philosophyforkids.com/

Philosophy for Kids offers stories and storytelling resources for engaging children in the pursuit and value of philosophical ideas.

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VISIONS OF THE FUTURE: 2006 ART COMPETITION

The World Future Society is now seeking submissions for its 2006 Visions of the Future art contest to find the most compelling visual imagery of the world we are building--or hope to build.

Submissions may reflect any of the suggested categories (resources, relationships, exploration, science and society, etc.) or one of the artist's choosing.

The winner will receive $500, a one-year membership in the World Future Society, and a scholarship to attend WorldFuture 2006, the Society's annual meeting in Toronto, July 28-30. The deadline for submissions is April 29, 2006.

DETAILS: WFS 2006 Visions of the Future Art Competition:
http://www.wfs.org/artcontest.htm

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NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

ONLINE FUTURING COURSES: The Institute for the Future @ AACC <http://www.aacc.edu/future> offers brief personal or professional development noncredit modules on the future. Subjects include Dealing with Change, Creativity and the Future, Driving Forces, Responsibility for the Future, and more.

DETAILS and REGISTRATION: http://www.aacc.edu/future/conedcourse06.cfm  

ORGANIC EDUCATION MODELS: Schools could be transformed with a more "organic" model that leverages innovation in both technology and pedagogy, says futurist educator Hugh Osborn of 21st Century Solutions. Osborn recently described his ideas and work in an article and Webcast for the online education journal Innovate.

DETAILS: http://www.innovateonline.info/index.php?view=article&id=236 or http://www.innovateonline.info/

ETHICAL MARKETS TELEVISION SERIES: Season one of the weekly television series Ethical Markets is now available on DVD and VHS. The half-hour series developed by futurist Hazel Henderson is a magazine-style program covering "financial lifestyles" and reporting on such topics as green architecture, renewable energy, socially responsib le investing, and fair trade. DETAILS: http://www.ethicalmarkets.com

FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2006, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.

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Submit feedback at http://www.wfs.org/fbfeb06.htm

The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $49 per year, or $20 for full-time students under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also offered; contact Society headquarters for details: http://www.wfs.org

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