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News & Previews from the World Future Society
December 2004 (Vol. 5, No.12)


In This Issue:

Five Technologies to Watch in 2005
U.S. Kids Increase Study Time
Ozone-Related Deaths Projected to Increase
Futurist W. Warren Wagar Dies
Click of the Month: Integrative Spirituality
News from WFS Partners and the Futures Community

FIVE TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH IN 2005

The Consumer Electronics Association recently picked the top five technologies poised to shake up the home-gadget market in the year ahead.

  1. Media servers containing a hard disk drive for storing digital media will allow distribution of those files to other devices located throughout the home. More than half of U.S. households will have home networks by 2008, the Association believes.
  2. Advanced portable entertainment devices will include more sophisticated types of cell phones, personal digital assistants, and digital memo recorders. Portable DVD players and installed mobile video are available for consumers who want to take their digital video content with them wherever they go.
  3. Smart appliances are making life in the kitchen a breeze. Examples include refrigerators that can monitor the shelf life of their contents and ovens that can download recipes via the Internet and then execute them.
  4. Innovative online and portable games will be an integral part of the growing gaming trend. Traditional console games will remain popular, however, and sales are expected to increase once manufacturers introduce next-generation consoles.
  5. Telematics will create smarter cars thanks to technology enabling electronics embedded in a vehicle to connect wirelessly to external sources. Telematics will enable an off-board navigation system so that satellite information can be beamed directly to the car instead of being scripted from a CD or DVD.

The full report is available from the Consumer Electronics Association, http://www.ce.org/publications/books_references/5tech_Watch-2005.pdf

U.S. KIDS INCREASE STUDY TIME

American kids 6 to 17 years old now spend 7.5 more hours a week on their studies than their counterparts 20 years ago did.

Research from the University of Michigan shows U.S. children and teens spend about 36.5 hours a week in school or doing homework.

That doesn’t mean they’re spending less time in front of the television. Today’s children and teens spend more than 14 hours a week watching the boob tube--almost as much time as children did in the past.

As students age from junior to senior high-school levels, they spend more time on computer activities, less time sleeping, and much more time visiting, socializing, and studying outside of school, the researchers found. In general, girls aged 6 to 17 spend less time playing, more time studying, and less time watching television than boys do.
SOURCE: University of Michigan, http://www.umich.edu/news/index.html?Releases/2004/Nov04/r111704a

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REGISTER NOW FOR DISCOUNT AT WORLDFUTURE 2005

Save $200 by registering before December 31 for the 2005 annual conference, "WorldFuture 2005: Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy," to be held July 29-31 at Chicago Hilton and Towers.

Among the leading experts and dynamic forward-thinkers you'll hear are Northwestern University marketing expert Philip Kotler; Jane Kusiak, senior policy advisor to the Governor of Virginia; Eric Isaacs, director of the Center for Nanoscale Materials (Argonne, Illinois); award-winning science-fiction writer Frederik Pohl; and many, many more!

LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2005main.htm
REGISTRATION (save $200 by registering before December 31):  https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
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OZONE-RELATED DEATHS PROJECTED TO INCREASE

Climate changes alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New York metropolitan area by 2050. When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, the ozone death toll could soar by nearly 60%, according to a multidisciplinary team of researchers led by Kim Knowlton of Columbia University.

Using a model to assess the health effects of air pollution resulting from climate change, the researchers simulated hourly regional meteorological conditions and ozone levels for five consecutive summers in the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2080s across the 31-county New York metropolitan area.

"This study takes existing climate model outputs and overlays them to project the likely future-year ozone concentrations for a specific region," says Jim Burkhart, science editor for Environmental Health Perspectives, which published the study. "By doing this, the authors were able to project a potentially significant public health impact."

SOURCE: "Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate" in ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES (November 2004 issue), http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/members/2004/7163/7163.html

FUTURIST W. WARREN WAGAR DIES

Historian and futures scholar W. Warren Wagar died November 16, 2004, at the age of 72. A specialist in alternative world futures and an expert in the work of pioneering science fiction writer H.G. Wells, Wagar served as history professor at Binghamton University, State University of New York, for 31 years. His courses on the history of the future and World War Three earned him the title of Distinguished Teaching Professor at Binghamton.

Wagar published 18 books, including A SHORT HISTORY OF THE FUTURE (1989, rev. 1992 and 1999), a narrative account of the imagined events of the next 200 years. In 1984, he began writing science fiction, publishing nine stories in various magazines and anthologies. He wrote four articles for THE FUTURIST, contributed to a discussion on terrorism in the January-February 2002 issue, served on the editorial board for Futures Research Quarterly, and spoke at several World Future Society conferences.

Wagar’s last book, H.G. WELLS: TRAVERSING TIME (Wesleyan University Press, 2004), traces Wells’s philosophies on utopia, war, romance, education, and modernism, focusing on his nonfiction and general fiction as well as his science fiction.

"Wagar, and his championing for H.G. Wells, will be greatly missed," said FUTURE SURVEY editor Michael Marien.

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GIVE THE FUTURE

GIVE World Future Society memberships to all your friends, family, clients, colleagues, mentors, and mentees (the first membership is $45 per year; additional memberships are $35 each): https://www.wfs.org/giftorder.htm

GIVE STUDENT memberships (just $20 a year each for full-time students under age 25): https://www.wfs.org/studentgiftorder.htm

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CLICK OF THE MONTH:  INTEGRATIVE SPIRITUALITY
http://www.integrativespirituality.org/

Attention, Spiritual Creatives, or "Spiriteers": Integrative Spirituality is a virtual community dedicated to deploying humanity's collective spiritual wisdom to solve its most intractable problems.

Topics explored in recent essays include fears about the future, the relationship between church going and diets, the role of religion in environmental protection, and a study on how brain science can help overcome racism.

The site is accessible in 11 languages. Discussion forums are available, though little used, suggesting that the site currently inspires more personal reflection than community action.

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NEWS FROM WFS PARTNERS AND THE FUTURES COMMUNITY

blubut.jpg (804 bytes) SHAPING TOMORROW discount subscription offer: Shaping Tomorrow is a Web-based service covering all aspects of futures, strategic thinking, and change management through thousands of links. Real editors (not automated Web trawlers) scan and analyze trends worldwide and identify relevant articles and studies about the future. Shaping Tomorrow's easily explored site allows you to follow any of 1,000 trends or just track your specific interest. And a weekly newsletter summarizes the most recent articles about innovations and the future of various industries and individuals.
SPECIAL WFS MEMBER OFFER: Instead of the normal $45 for 12-month access, click on http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/wfs38.cfm to receive all this immediately for $37.

blubut.jpg (804 bytes) CLUB OF AMSTERDAM's Summit for the Future will be held January 26-28 at the HES Amsterdam School of Business. Globalization and its impacts on Europe will be a key topic of the conference, whose theme is Visions and Strategies for 2020. Can we turn the "brain drain" into "brain gain" or, better yet, "brain circulation"? The Club of Amsterdam is an independent, international think tank that organizes regular high-level discussions on preferred futures.
DETAILS: http://www.clubofamsterdam.com/press.asp?contentid=373&catid=61

blubut.jpg (804 bytes) CONVERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING HUMAN PERFORMANCE, a National Science Foundation conference scheduled for February 24 and 25 in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, will explore the potential impacts of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science. Co-chairing the program are William Sims Bainbridge, director of the NSF Science and Engineering Informatics Program; Carlo Montemagno, deputy director of California Nano Systems Institute, and NSF senior adviser Mihail C. Rocco.
DETAILS: http://www.BizTechComm.com
http://www.biztechcomm.com/conferences/displayConference.asp?conferenceID=1&section=home

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2004, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.

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Assistant Editor: Clifton Coles
Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish 
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The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $45 per year, or $20 for full-time students under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also offered; contact Society headquarters for details: http://www.wfs.org

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