FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Previews from the World Future Society
August  2003

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IN THIS ISSUE:
* Internet Research Skills Lacking
* Investing against Terrorism
* Click of the Month: Institute of Ideas
* Reasons Not to Switch to Hydrogen-Fueled Cars
* New Tools for Asteroid Hunters
* World's Fastest Futurist

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INTERNET RESEARCH SKILLS LACKING
The Internet is not yet living up to its potential as a research tool for students; in fact, the Internet may even be frustrating and discouraging many student researchers.

Most teenagers lack the more-complex information-gathering skills needed to use the Internet effectively, according to Alison Pickard, a lecturer at Northumbria University's School of Informatics. Since the Internet is widely regarded as a good source of information, the teens blame themselves for their inability to find the information they need, thus losing confidence and giving up.

Pickard suggests that more-proficient kids could help others, but schools tend to resist peer tutoring. "The idea that kids are messing around when they work together is an understandable assumption," she says, "but in fact they learn very effectively from each other. It means kids with access to a home computer with superior IT skills can teach others in an informal setting."

SOURCE: University of Northumbria, http://northumbria.ac.uk

INVESTING AGAINST TERRORISM
U.S. corporations have increased their spending on insurance and risk management by far more than they have on improving security, reports The Conference Board. The median spending increase for security since September 11, 2001, was a modest 4%, compared with 33% increases for insurance and risk management.

Only 24% of the corporations studied have created a centralized Chief Security Officer, and most companies employ fewer than 50 people to oversee their security needs.

"While nobody knows how much security spending is enough, there are legitimate concerns about corporate vulnerability," says security expert Tom Cavanagh. "Since about 80% of America's critical infrastructure is controlled by the private sector, corporate security managers will play an increasingly vital role in protecting key industries and the people who work in them and are based near them."

SOURCE: The Conference Board,
http://www.conference-board.org/utilities/pressDetail.cfm?press_ID=2189

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CLICK OF THE MONTH: INSTITUTE OF IDEAS
http://www.instituteofideas.com
Why do people have a morbid fascination with death and dying? Is marriage disappearing? Should humans experiment on animals?

These are a few of the questions under consideration by members of the Institute of Ideas, a three-year-old organization founded in London to promote "thought-provoking discussions on some of the big issues facing humanity today."

The Institute sponsors live events such as the upcoming Roundtable Rumbles at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe (August 10-16) and panel discussions on George Orwell at the Edinburgh Book Festival (August 13-23).

The Web site offers transcripts of conference papers and previous discussions, such as the debate between Gregory Stock, author of REDESIGNING HUMANS, and Francis Fukuyama, author of OUR POSTHUMAN FUTURE, on the ethics of genetically altering our children.

REASONS NOT TO SWITCH TO HYDROGEN-FUELED CARS
Switching from gasoline-powered cars to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could be expensive, inefficient, and environmentally dangerous, warn two separate teams of researchers.

Hydrogen cars are being pursued because they could potentially reduce air pollution, slow down global warming, and reduce dependence on imported oil, according to Alex Farrell of the University of California at Berkeley and David Keith of Carnegie Mellon. But if the hydrogen is produced from oil and coal, carbon dioxide is released that would have to be captured and stored.

Farrell and Keith point out that technologies are already available to improve efficiency and reduce air pollution and greenhouse gases caused by automobiles that could be applied at a fraction of the cost of switching to hydrogen.

Meanwhile, a team of Caltech researchers warns that hydrogen leaking into the atmosphere could wind up disrupting the climate and attacking the ozone layer. Hydrogen cars, production facilities, and transport systems might leak some hydrogen into the atmosphere, where it could increase moisture in the stratosphere, cool the upper atmosphere, and (indirectly) destroy ozone.

SOURCES: University of California, Berkeley:
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/07/17_fuels.shtml
California Institute of Technology:
http://pr.caltech.edu/media/Press_Releases/PR12405.html
SCIENCE magazine, http://www.sciencemag.org/

 

CONFERENCE VOLUME
NOW AVAILABLE

The volume of scholarly essays prepared for the World Future Society's 2003 conference may now be purchased from the Futurist Bookshelf.

The volume, 21ST CENTURY OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES: AN AGE OF DESTRUCTION OR AN AGE OF TRANSFORMATION, was edited by historian and futures-scholar Howard F. Didsbury Jr., and includes papers by some of today's leading futures thinkers.

Among the outstanding authors are communitarian advocate Amitai Etzioni, educator Donald Louria, sociologist Wendell Bell, diplomat J. Ørstrøm Møller, technology-assessment expert Vary Coates, and many others.

ORDER 21ST CENTURY OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES (ISBN 0930242580; $29.95 reg.; $24.95 mem.): http://www.wfs.org/wfsblurbs.htm#century


NEW TOOL FOR ASTEROID HUNTERS

Skywatchers on the lookout for rogue impactors have a new tool in their kit: a powerful camera called Quest (Quasar Equatorial Survey) at Caltech's Mt. Palomar Observatory. Already, Quest has discovered a near-Earth asteroid about 820 feet (250 meters) in diameter.

"We expect the new camera to increase the efficiency of detection of near-Earth asteroids by some three to four times that of the camera it replaced," says principal investigator Raymond Bambery. "This will make a major contribution to NASA's goal of discovering more than 90% of near-Earth objects that are greater than one kilometer in diameter by 2008."

Asteroids of that size might not do as much damage as once thought, according to another team of researchers, from Imperial College London and the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The team created a computer simulation to predict whether the asteroids would explode in the atmosphere or hit the surface of the earth. In an article published in NATURE, the researchers tentatively concluded that these larger impactors are more likely to break up in the atmosphere than was previously thought.

SOURCES: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/2003/99.cfm
Imperial College London, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/p4317.htm

WORLD'S FASTEST FUTURIST
Congratulations to Andy Hines, ideation leader for Dow Chemical, who won the first annual 5K Run/Walk to the Future, an event organized by Police Futurists International for the World Future Society's 2003 annual meeting in San Francisco.

Fleet-footed Hines was also one of the busier futurists at the meeting, conducting a preconference course as well as leading two sessions.

A report on the conference will appear in the November-December issue of THE FUTURIST, which mails to subscribers after October 6.

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2003, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 1-301-656-8274;  mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.

To subscribe, send an e-mail message to mailto:majordomo@wfs.org with "subscribe futurist-update" in the BODY of the message.

Send feedback or contributions to Cindy Wagner, editor  mailto:cwagner@wfs.org.

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THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with some 25,000 members worldwide. Membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST magazine and numerous other benefits, is just $45 per yea r ($20 for full-time students under age 25). For more information on the Society and all its programs, publications, and services, contact Membership Director Susan Echard, mailto:sechard@wfs.org, or visit http://www.wfs.org.

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