News & Previews from the World Future Society April 2007 (Vol. 8, No. 4)

In This Issue: • Wealth Explosion for the United Kingdom • Threat of Water Scarcity Worsens • Female CEOs on the Rise • Machine Intelligence for Health-Care Decisions • Click of the Month: Europe in 2020 (video) • News from the Futurist Community

WEALTH EXPLOSION FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM Approximately 8 million UK households (one in four) will be dollar millionaires by the year 2016, giving the United Kingdom more millionaires than any other G7 country, according to a new report from the financial services provider Barclay's Group. The trend reflects a convergence of various factors. A robust economy and property market, coupled with attractive taxation policies for foreigners and a rich cultural life, have made the United Kingdom an enticing destination for the global elite (such as the Russian oil tycoon Boris Berezovsky). The super-rich, in turn, have had a positive net impact on local property values. The top source of millionaire wealth was the sale of property, according to the report. Additionally, the economic shift away from manufacturing to services has pushed down the price of setting up a business. The United Kingdom is home to a thriving entrepreneurial class, and the sale of a business was cited as the second leading generator of millionaire wealth, with inheritance coming in third--a dramatic shift from a century ago. SOURCE: Barclays Wealth, http://www.barclayswealth.com/research.aspx THREAT OF WATER SCARCITY WORSENS Nearly one-third of the world's population dwells in a water-scarce area, and the number is certain to grow in the decades ahead, warns David Molden of the International Water Management Institute. The result will be greater rates of malnutrition and starvation in many developing regions. Global food demand is expected to double in the next 50 years as greater affluence in India and China results in more people adopting the meat-heavy diets of their Western counterparts. In China, for instance, per capita meat demand has quadrupled over the last 30 years. A heavy meat diet is far more water intensive than a vegetarian diet. Better water management, resources policies, and education about the link between water and food are critical to staving off disaster, says Molden. The Institute's report, "Water for Life," estimates that a 35% increase in water productivity--reached through more prudent resource use policies--could reduce additional crop water needs significantly by 2050. SOURCE: The International Water Management Institute, http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Assessment/ ********************************************* SECOND ANNUAL PROTEUS "FUTURES" ACADEMIC WORKSHOP, AND A "CALL FOR PAPERS" This workshop, cosponsored by the Center for Strategic Leadership and the National Intelligence University, will be held August 14-16, 2007, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The workshop’s goal is to provide scholars across the government, military, academia and the private sector the opportunity to present papers on topics and discuss issues that explore future complexity and to examine new and innovative strategies and processes to meet 21st century security challenges. For more information, see: https://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteus/csl-cp-01-07.pdf or contact Mr. Bill Wimbish (mailto:william.wimbish@us.army.mil or telephone 717-245-3366) or Mr. Pat Cohn (mailto:patrick.cohn@us.army.mil or telephone 717-245-3196). ********************************************* FEMALE CEOs ON THE RISE The percentage of women who are CEOs is rising sharply, according workforce expert John Challenger, who calls 2007, "The Year of the Woman." Of the 1,052 CEO changeovers that were publicly announced in 2006, 86, or roughly 8.2%, saw a woman CEO taking over control of a company from a male predecessor. That percentage was up significantly from 2005, when 7.4% of all CEO replacements involved women taking over from men. Among the 183 CEO replacements that were announced in the first two and a half months of 2007, 9.2%, or 17 of them were changeovers from men to women. However, while female CEOs have become more common over the last two years, the number of women who held lower-level officer positions actually declined in 2006, from 16.4% in 2005 to 15.6% by the end of last year, according to a Catalyst study cited by Challenger. "Despite the positive numbers, women still have barriers to overcome in the workplace. There are still many places that are not family friendly and include upper-level executives who cling to archaic stereotypes abut women that help keep them out of top positions," observes Challenger. SOURCE: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, http://www.challengergray.com/ EXPLORE THE FUTURE WITH LEADING EXPERTS The World Future Society's next annual meeting, "WorldFuture 2007: Fostering Hope and Vision for the 21st Century," will be held July 29-31 at the Hilton Minneapolis in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Explore breakthrough technologies and their impacts, share ideas for a safer world, boost your own enlightenment, and improve your foresight capabilities with a thousand of the most future-minded men and women in the world. You can also expand your conference experience by participating in one of about a dozen preconference courses, the all-day symposium on "Nanotechnology: Innovation and Opportunities," the post-conference Professional Members' Forum, and Minnesota Futures Day (August 1). LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2007main.htm SPONSOR A STUDENT: A donation of $100 will allow a young futurist to attend WorldFuture 2007: https://www.wfs.org/donateol.htm REGISTER by April 30 and save $100 off the on-site registration fee: https://www.wfs.org/2007regform.htm MACHINE INTELLIGENCE FOR HEALTH-CARE DECISIONS If you had a severe stroke and couldn't speak for yourself, would you trust a computer to predict whether you'd want life-support treatment or not? One study now suggests that an advanced computer-based decision tool can predict your preferences as accurately as a family member. The decision tool, developed by David Wendler of the National Institutes of Health and colleagues, uses the incapacitated patient's circumstances (e.g., Alzheimer's patient with pneumonia) and personal characteristics (Native American, male, over age 60, well-educated). The program analyzes treatment preferences of similar individuals in these circumstances and predicts how likely this patient would be to accept antibiotics to treat his pneumonia. Wendler's team analyzed how well the decision tool performed compared with surrogates (i.e., loved ones) who were queried about a patient's choices in a hypothetical scenario involving terminating life support. Both the surrogates and the computer were roughly 68% accurate in predicting the patient's choice. Ideally, all individuals should make their treatment preferences known through advance medical directives. However, when no such directive exists, Wendler believes that improved computer-based decision tools could surpass the decision-making abilities of loved ones, who may be burdened by stress. SOURCE: "How Should Treatment Decisions Be Made for Incapacitated Patients, and Why?" by D.I. Shalowitz, E. Garrett-Mayer, and D. Wendler, Public Library of Science, MEDICINE 4(3):e35,  http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0040035 CLICK OF THE MONTH: EUROPE IN 2020 (Video) http://www.futurecheck.nl/home.php?taal=2 On his Web site FutureCheck, Dutch futurist Marcel Bullinga offers a tantalizing glimpse of Europe in the year 2020--a society boosted by the transparent, intelligent, virtual world. This video is an abridged version of what Bullinga shows during his live presentations. "Europe in 2020" is also posted at YouTube, where viewers are invited to leave comments: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CLbWyAC3Xc NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY ARLINGTON INSTITUTE HELPS SINGAPORE DEVELOP THREAT WARNING SYSTEM. The government of Singapore has developed a national security system called RAHS (Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning) to spot potential threats to national security while they're still manageable. John L. Petersen, founder and president of the Virginia-based Arlington Institute, served as the concept architect for the system. "One of the most remarkable aspects in human history is the continuity of strategic surprises and resulting shocks to nations," says Petersen. "The cause of these shocks is almost always the inability of government to identify early indicators of change and share the information internally. Through collaboration, RAHS will be able to detect signals and analyze potential threat patterns which otherwise would have gone unnoticed." A working version of the RAHS system was unveiled to invited practitioners, academics, technologists, and futurists at the inaugural two-day International RAHS symposium in March in Singapore. Learn more at the Arlington Institute Web site: http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/ FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2007, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org. Editor: Cindy Wagner Assistant Editor: Patrick Tucker Network Administrator: Jeff Cornish Webmaster: Sarah Warner Vice President, Membership/Conference Operations:  Susan Echard To subscribe, enter your e-mail at http://www.wfs.org To unsubscribe or change your e-mail address, send an e-mail to mailto:jcornish@wfs.org  with "unsubscribe" or "change address" in the subject line. Submit feedback: http://www.wfs.org/fbapr07.htm The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $49 per year, or $20 for full-time students under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also offered; contact Society headquarters for details: http://www.wfs.org.