News & Previews from the World Future Society
April 2006 (Vol. 7, No. 4)

In This Issue:
• Computer Models for Faster Decision Making
• No Doctor Shortage?
• Clicks of the Month: Trend Trackers and Fad Hunters
• News from the Futurist Community

COMPUTER MODELS FOR FASTER DECISION MAKING

The environment in which organizations operate is getting ever more complex, yet leaders still make decisions based on old-fashioned spreadsheets or even less-scientific methods, notably "gut instinct."

But questions ranging from how to route a shipment to whether or not to merge with another organization cannot simply be left to intuition, which may be wrong more than half the time, according to Young-Jun Son, an assistant professor of engineering at the University of Arizona.

Son believes computers can do a much better job, so he is leading efforts to develop a simulation system to help decision makers glean the potential outcomes of their decisions.

By networking computers and using data from an organization's partners and other sources, the program can run through millions of scenarios to see what will happen in great detail, says Son. The goal is to answer "what if" questions in these chaotic systems.

The simulation program that Son is developing relies on vast quantities of shared information, so many organizations may be reluctant to share proprietary data. Therefore, one goal is to create models that use this key data and yet keep it secure.

SOURCE: University of Arizona http://uanews.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/UANews.woa/2/wa/MainStoryDetails?ArticleID=12258

NO DOCTOR SHORTAGE?

A looming health-care crisis in the graying industrialized world is not due to a shortage of doctors, but rather to inefficiency in medical practices, says a team of researchers at Dartmouth Medical Center.

The current supply of physicians and medical students should be sufficient to meet U.S. health-care needs through 2020, the researchers write in the journal HEALTH AFFAIRS. Calls for increasing enrollments at medical schools to train more doctors would be a waste of millions of dollars, charges David Goodman, M.D., co-author of the study.

Instead of increasing the number of doctors, more effort should be put into improving efficiency and patient-care management at existing medical practices, the researchers conclude. For instance, interdisciplinary or multispecialty group practices, such as the famed Mayo Clinic of Rochester, Minnesota, provide outstanding care with far smaller doctor-patient ratios than is typical at practices affiliated with medical schools.

"Instead of financing further growth in our medical education system, resources might be better directed to reorganizing delivery systems that have already demonstrated that they can deliver good care at relatively low cost," the authors write.

SOURCE: Dartmouth Medical School, http://dms.dartmouth.edu/news/2006_h1/07mar2006_goodman.shtml

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LEARN AND SAVE! REGISTER NOW FOR WORLDFUTURE 2006

Technology, health, resources, business, security, values, education, and policy making are just a few of the areas you'll explore at WorldFuture 2006: Creating Global Strategies for Humanity's Future, the World Future Society's annual meeting to be held July 28-30, 2006, in Toronto. Register now and save $100 on the on-site fee.

To hone your own futuring skills, consider also taking advantage of the intensive, all-day courses, offered during the two days preceding the conference. Subjects range from an introductory futuring course, offered by futures studies professor Peter Bishop, to the two-day strategic foresight course led by Ruben Nelson, CEO of Square One Management Ltd.

Other noted futurists offering courses include Joel Barker, Don E. Beck, Linda Groff, Paul D. Tinari, and many others. Consult your preliminary program for details.

REGISTER NOW (SAVE $100): https://www.wfs.org/2006regform.htm

LEARN MORE: Download Preliminary Program http://www.wfs.org/2006main.htm

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CLICKS OF THE MONTH: TREND TRACKERS AND FAD HUNTERS

A recent syndicated newspaper article profiled several professional "trend trackers," whose very slick and entertaining Web sites cover a variety of interesting, future-oriented news stories and topics:
Ubercool - http://www.ubercool.com/
PSFK - http://www.psfk.com/
Trendhunter - http://www.trendhunter.com/
Treehugger - http://www.treehugger.com/

These sites are very up-to-date, dynamic, and refreshing. However, they are largely devoted to fads of more immediate interest to marketers, rather than to trends that should be on futurists' radar screens. ("Cool" is apparently still hot among these trend hunters, but the problem is that "cool" cools off rather quickly. The death of cool may well be imminent.)

Fads, of course, are not the same as trends. For professional trend analysis on topics beyond the "next new thing," visit the World Future Society's own Consultants & Services listings: http://www.wfs.org/consult.htm

Much of the work done by professional futurists is proprietary, but many consulting futurists - such as Social Technologies http://www.socialtechnologies.com - offer summaries of their forecasts and trend analyses to the public.

Here are just a few other sites worth checking out:
Foresight Nanotech Institute's blog, Nanodot: http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/
This is where to find breaking news and authoritative commentary on nano research and development.

The Arlington Institute's Future Edition newsletter, which is available both online and as an e-mailed publication: http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/futuredition/futuredition_05.asp

Provides links to future-oriented stories from news services and mainstream press sources around the world.

European Monitoring Centre on Change: http://www.emcc.eurofound.eu.int/sector_futures.htm covers futures in a variety of sectors, including publishing, textiles, transportation, and, most recently, the performing arts.

Future Think’s "Snap Shots" innovation index: http://www.getfuturethink.com/snapshots/ The Future Think team, led by CEO Lisa Bodell, provides succinct summaries of innovative strategies by various organizations as they respond to ever-shifting trends.

Worldwatch Institute's Vital Signs Facts: http://www.worldwatch.org/features/vsow/
Offers statistical snapshots of important trends in environment, resources, and global development.

Karl Albrecht International: http://karlalbrecht.com
The site includes free articles, white papers, PowerPoint downloads, and more.

Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist: http://www.josephcoates.com/
The site includes articles, briefs on recent activities, and an "Ask the Futurist" feature.

Shaping Tomorrow: http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/
In addition to news links, this consultancy offers a variety of change-management and trend-analysis services for members and clients. The free newsletter may be viewed online or by e-mail.

There are of course many, many other resources devoted to helping you better understand long-term trends and to shape the future, rather than to scurry after the latest hot fads. Check out the "BackClicks" archive for links to some of those previously profiled right here in FUTURIST UPDATE: http://www.wfs.org/backclicks.htm

SEE ALSO: "Trend Spotting Explodes Online" by Nichola Saminather, Columbia News Service (The Sunday Oregonian, March 19, 2006).

NEWS FROM THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY

• GLOBAL GOALS AND PROBLEM SOLVING: The Design Science Lab is holding a special event June 21-30 at the United Nations International School in New York City. Participants at the event will develop strategies for achieving UN Millennium Development Goals using design science, a "powerful planning and problem-solving methodology developed by Buckminster Fuller and others," says event organizer Medard Gabel. DETAILS: http://www.designsciencelab.org
  
• FUTURES EXPLORATION SERIES: The Center for the Future at Fullerton and Cypress colleges in California will feature presentations on "Challenges of the Future" by World Future Society President Timothy C. Mack on April 3 and "Long-Term Policy Analysis" by Jim Dewar of the RAND Corporation on April 26. For more information on these and other programs at the Center,  http://fcfutures.fullcoll.edu or call 1-714-992-7106.

• MILLENNIUM AWARDS FOR CHILDREN: The first Millennium Project Millennium Awards for Children were presented on March 15 in Mexico City in a ceremony hosted by the Millennium Project's Mexican Node. The winners' trips to the award ceremony were sponsored by 22 Mexican state governors. The Millennium Awards is a program of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. DETAILS:  http://www.premiodelmilenio.org

FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine.
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