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News & Previews from the World Future Society
April 2005 (Vol. 6, No. 4)


In This Issue:

  Rural Areas as Terrorist Targets?
China's Car Boom
Obesity May Shorten U.S. Life Expectancy
Click of the Month: Questions and Answers about the Future
News from WFS Partners and the Futures Community

RURAL AREAS AS TERRORIST TARGETS?

Large urban areas are not the only regions that should worry about terrorism risks. Future terrorist attacks may also occur in rural areas, a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report concludes.

"The agricultural heartland is just as likely to be attacked as skyscrapers on the eastern seaboard," says Carl Parks of the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. "No matter where an attack happens, the cost in human life and economic damages could be as devastating, even more so, than the 9/11 attacks."

Among the most plausible or devastating attacks identified by DHS:
• Blowing up chlorine tanks.
• Spreading disease in airports, sports venues, and train stations.
• Infecting livestock with diseases.
• Detonating a nuclear device in a major city.
• Releasing nerve gas in an office building.
• Bombing a sports arena.

SOURCE: Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, http://www.pciaa.net 

CHINA'S CAR BOOM

China’s automotive industry will soon become the world’s third largest. Vehicle sales in China have surged 166% in the past five years, according to an automotive industry report, and vehicle output has surpassed France, South Korea, Spain, and Canada in four years.

"If its recent growth rate continues, China would pass Germany and become the world’s third-largest vehicle producer in the next few years," says Kathleen Schmatz, president and CEO of the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA).

AAIA reports that automotive products in high demand in China include tires, antitheft devices, environmental protection technologies, engine-related parts such as fuel injection systems and inlet pipes, and chassis parts like shock absorbers and antilock-brake systems.

"Since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, many obstacles to U.S. aftermarket companies have been eliminated, including trading rights restrictions and tariffs," says Schmatz. "As a result, U.S. auto parts exports to China have more than doubled. With the recent openings of the distribution channels, there is tremendous opportunity for foreign companies to shape China’s aftermarket."

SOURCE: Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association, http://www.aftermarket.org/Information/Press_Releases/nr031005.asp

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BUILD THE FUTURE AND SAVE $100!

Build your future now with the latest tools for foresight, innovation, and strategy! Join nearly a thousand of your fellow futurists at the World Future Society's next annual meeting, to be held July 29-31 in Chicago.

Register before April 29 for "WorldFuture 2005: Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy" in order to save $100 off the on-site fee!

The preliminary program is now available and will give you a chance to plan your conference experience! Learn more about preconference courses, plenary sessions, keynote luncheon speeches, concurrent sessions, and special activities such as the tour of Argonne National Lab's Advanced Photon Source.

Conference registrants will receive a complimentary copy of FORESIGHT, INNOVATION, AND STRATEGY: TOWARD A WISER FUTURE, a volume of more than two dozen insightful papers by distinguished authors such as Norman Myers, William Sims Bainbridge, Herbert I. London, and Lester R. Brown.

LEARN MORE: http://www.wfs.org/2005main.htm
REGISTRATION NOW:  https://www.wfs.org/2005regfrm.htm
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OBESITY MAY SHORTEN U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY

Life expectancy in the United States may shorten by two to five years by the middle of the century, say University of Illinois at Chicago researchers.

The dramatic rise in obesity is the primary catalyst--obesity currently reduces life expectancy by approximately four to nine months. The rapid rise in obesity in U.S. children and teenagers in the past 30 years will have life-shortening effects in the future. Researchers speculate that it could be enough to offset any improvements in longevity from anticipated advances in biomedical technology.

They also believe that the life-shortening effect of obesity could rise so rapidly in the United States that it may eventually exceed the current life-shortening effects of cancer or heart disease.

These findings are contrary to what some scientists predict about human life expectancy, which assumes that past increases will continue indefinitely. Most forecasts of life expectancy are based on historical trends, but UIC professor S. Jay Olshansky and his fellow researchers conclude that such estimates fail to consider the obesity epidemic.

"One of the consequences of our prediction is that Social Security does not appear to be in nearly as bad a shape as we think," says Olshansky. "The obese may be inadvertently ‘saving’ Social Security, but the obese themselves and the health-care system that cares for them will pay a very heavy price in terms of higher death rates and escalating health-care costs."

SOURCE: University of Illinois at Chicago, http://www.uic.edu/sph/news/news_79.html

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FUTURE TIMES ONLINE

Get the latest chapter news and networking links from the World Future Society! Visit FUTURE TIMES: http://www.wfs.org/futuretimes.htm

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CLICK OF THE MONTH: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE FUTURE http://www.aacc.cc.md.us/future/qandaarchives.cfm

The Institute for the Future at Anne Arundel Community College in Maryland has created a one-stop-shopping page for asking professional futurists specific questions about the future. Topics already covered include children, schools and higher education, communications technologies, global trends, and how to give a successful talk about the future.

NEWS FROM WFS PARTNERS AND THE FUTURES COMMUNITY

  • "THE FUTURES OF EUROPEANS IN THE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY" CONFERENCE: Discuss the unique challenges of the Knowledge Society with speakers such as Philppe Busquin (Former European Commissioner on Research), Michel Godet (National Conservatory for Arts and Industries), Josephine Green (Philips Design), and others on April 13 and 14, 2005, in Louvaine-la-Neuve (near Brussels).
    DETAILS: http://www.wallonie-en-ligne.net/2005_EuMPI/index.htm
  • FUTURES, GENDER & FEMINISM, CALL FOR PAPERS: A special issue of FUTURES will be devoted to feminism and gender issues. The editors are inviting papers that look broadly at issues raised at the intersection of women's/gender studies and futures studies. FUTURES is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics, and politics, environment and the planet, and individuals and humanity. Those interested in contributing papers are asked to send an abstract to Ivana Milojevic, mailto:ivanam@uq.edu.au or mailto:ivanam0407@yahoo.com.

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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2005, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org; Web site http://www.wfs.org.

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