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FUTURIST UPDATE

News & Previews from the World Future Society

April 2000

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IN THIS ISSUE:

* The Internet vs. Life

* A Nine-Day Week?

* Replacing Needles With Ultrasound

* Daughters Wanted

* Globalization's Environmental Impact

* World Future Society News

THE INTERNET VS. LIFE

Many heavy Internet users find themselves working more hours from home, often at the expense of time spent with friends and family, and this trend is likely to continue as more people go online, according to a new study from Stanford University.

The Stanford study is the first to examine a large, representative sample of Americans--over 4,000 adults--in its attempt to assess the social consequences of Internet use, its authors say. About two-thirds of those surveyed reported spending fewer than five hours per week on the Net, and these "light" users reported few life changes. However, the other third of "regular" users, who spent more than five hours/week online, reported significant life changes. Of these, the "heavy" users--the 15% of the total who surpassed 10 hours/week--reported the largest life changes.

Preliminary findings: A quarter of the employed regular Internet users reported they spent more time working from home without working any less at the office. In addition, a quarter of all regular users said that Internet use reduced their time with friends and family. "The more hours people use the Internet, the less time they spend with real human beings," said principal investigator Norman Nie. "This is an early trend that, as a society, we really need to monitor carefully."

A NINE DAY WEEK?

Switching to a nine-day week--six working days with three days off--may help alleviate a variety of economic ills and social irritations, proposes noted educator Harold Howe II.

The key to this plan is that people will have different "weekends" off: Workers would take their three-day weekends in shifts, with one-third of them being off duty at any given time. This would relieve the stress and strain that comes from everyone having to cram most of their leisure activities and errands into a two-day weekend. "During those two days, it is difficult to get your car fixed, your tooth ache attended to, or your attorney's help with some emergency," writes Howe, who served as U.S. Commissioner of Education under President Lyndon Johnson.

The idea actually originated with the late Argentinian astrophysicist Carlos M. Varsavsky, Howe notes. It calls for 10 months each consisting of four nine-day weeks. That's a total of 360 days, with five major holidays rounding out the 365-day year. "In the process, our economy would become more efficient, our leisure time more rewarding, our schools and colleges less crowded, our religious activities more meaningful, and our family lives more successful for both children and adults," Howe says.

REPLACING NEEDLES WITH ULTRASOUND

New research on a way to draw blood without needles may lead to wristwatch-type biomonitoring devices that could, for example, check a diabetic's glucose levels and deliver insulin without ever breaking the skin.

Scientists at MIT have figured out how to check glucose levels using ultrasound instead of a needle. When applied to the skin, ultrasound slightly loosens the bonds between skin cells so that the fluid between cells can be drawn through the skin with a small glass vacuum cylinder. This fluid is not actually blood, but it contains the same concentrations of glucose and other substances found in blood. Cholesterol, for example, could also be checked with this technique.

DAUGHTERS WANTED

Most parents who have any preference at all about the gender of their children tend to want an equal mix. But a team of German demographers studying gender preference in Europe recently found an unexpected preference for girls in Portugal, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic. The researchers also cited a previous study that found a preference for daughters in the Caribbean.

GLOBALIZATION'S ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

VANISHING BORDERS, a new book by Worldwatch Institute vice president Hilary French, outlines a litany of growing threats from globalized commerce.

For example, forests are shrinking as the value of global trade in forest products climb--from $29 billion in 1961 to $139 billion in 1998; fisheries are collapsing as fish exports skyrocket--from just over $10 billion in 1970 to $52 billion in 1997; and more human lives around the world may be endangered as pesticide exports increase--from about $1 billion in 1960 to $11.4 billion in 1998.

"The surge in movements of goods, money, species, and pollution across international borders is placing unprecedented strains on the planet," French writes. VANISHING BORDERS offers a carefully researched and well-documented argument for approaching globalization's opportunities cautiously and wisely. French, a specialist on the role of international institutions in environmental protection, recommends using new communications technologies to create international environmental coalitions. She also suggests using global trade to help spread environmentally beneficial products and technologies, such as shade-grown coffee and wind power.

WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY NEWS

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Copyright (c) 2000 World Future Society