WorldFuture 2003: Drama, Power, and Politics
CEOs, innovators, and politicians created another exciting, highly successful Society conference.
Reported by Arthur B. Shostak, Janet Hennard, and John Smart

Nearly 1,000 buzzing, proactive futurists converged on San Francisco's Hyatt Regency for this year's World Future Society conference. Attendees at WorldFuture 2003: 21st Century Challenges and Opportunities, ably chaired by John J. Gottsman of The Clarity Group, filled their mental vaults with fresh perspectives on the future of technology, society, the environment, business, and much more.

The conference started with an overview on "Shaping Our World: Workable Visions and Significant Forces." Biotech guru Gregory Stock spoke of a not-too-distant future in which life spans will be altered and "designer" children will be created (via embryo selectivity, embryo engineering, and/or cloning). As director of the Program on Medicine, Technology and Society at UCLA's medical school, Stock basis his visions on recent developments in science, which he outlined in his book, Redesigning Humans: Our Inevitable Genetic Future.

Stock noted that the radical, biotech-based changes in store for medicine, health care, life span, and embryos will be met with moral opposition, not to mention the challenge of funding. But he concluded that the question is not whether these changes will happen, but when.

Following Stock's riveting kickoff speech was plenary panelist K. Eric Drexler, founder and chair of the Foresight Institute in Palo Alto, California. Drexler, who in the 1980s introduced the term nanotechnology, provided an overview of nanotech, first defining "nano" (a billionth of a meter), then explaining how devices of this dimension could make seemingly impossible dreams come true. Medicine, weapons systems, and molecular manufacturing are just some of the fields that are being--and will continue to be--revolutionized by nanotech, Drexler said.

Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., urged futurists to pay better attention to the pressing matters of climate change. She forecast that a shortage of available, usable water will be a major source of conflict in the next 10 years and argued for better public/private partnerships to take care of the earth's precious water resources. Weiner was also hopeful that nanotech could somehow, someday alleviate the dangers of climate change.

How to Be a Better Futurist
Several speakers offered suggestions on how futurists can better their forecasting and improve their general awareness of trends in the field. For instance, in "The Future of Futures" session with various leading futurists, attendees enjoyed a mini-scenario salon exploring various scenarios in mathematical, methodological, and ethical terms.

In "A Question of Integrity: Tomorrow's Leadership," Tom Christoffel (executive director, Regional Intellgience, Front Royal, Virginia), Jay Gary (director, World Network for Religious Futurists, Colorado Springs, Colorado), and Philip Ernest Johnson (life and leadership coach, Soulwise Enterprises, Grand Rapids, Michigan) talked about how our perceptions of integrity, which they define as adherence to a code, can affect leadership. Gary touched on a theme echoed throughout the conference: There are limits to systems thinking, and in building a better future, we must look beyond concrete information. He urged futurists to take into account cultural judgments and codes in order to map assumptions, not just systems. "We must pay attention to the external as well as the internal, be objective through empirical futures as well as subjective," Gary said.

A session on "Integral Futures: New Approaches to the Big Questions" espoused similar ideas. Led by Richard Slaughter, director of the Australian Foresight Institute, and Andy Hines, ideation leader for Dow Chemical, the session encouraged futurists to heighten their mental acuity, not just focus on methods.

Specifically, they talked about the four-quadrant approach to gauging situations: Individual-Interior (psychology), Individual-Exterior (behaviorism), Collectivity-Interior (sociology), and Collectivity-Exterior (systems theory). Attendees learned how to employ these quadrants in decision making, and Hines described how this approach has been used at Dow.

In session after session, note-scribbling conference-goers gleaned new ideas on how to think in broader terms. Those tools of thought will be critical in a world where the lines between society, demography, government, technology, economics, and the environment are increasingly blurred. Fortunately, a handful of speakers shed some light on what that future might look like, to help us better prepare for what's to come.

Tomorrow's Integrated Economy
There may be promise for a reinvigorated labor movement thanks to the organizing power of the Internet, said the AFL-CIO's Sharon Pinnock in "Organized Labor and Tomorrow's Workplace: 2010 and Thereafter." With targeted outreach and informative sites, union workers could form coalitions, increase their bargaining power, and otherwise benefit from Internet connectivity. The catch? Getting workers worldwide on the Net. William Pearson of United Food and Commercial Workers Union 789 in St. Paul, Minnesota, said he sees the labor revolution on the horizon, but not for another two decades.

Another trend in the integrated economy is the convergence of environment, technology, and politics, a topic Stephen Millett, thought leader at Battelle, is quite familiar with. He focused specifically on the future of energy--a complicated topic that, until recently, has left environmentalists and politicans at odds.

Coal has become too costly to transport, so Millett anticipates a major switch to the use of fuel cells. It won't be a rapid transformation, however: The focus will be on improving energy access and use first at the city level, then the neighborhood level. The paradigm shift could take 20 years, and it's bound to ruffle some feathers along the way. Millett reminded those who are especially sensitive to the environmental aspects of energy policy that "all forms of energy have some environmental cost."

Curtis R. Carlson, president and CEO of SRI International, hammered home the importance of fostering innovation within organizations. His presentation, "The Exponential Economy: Technology and Innovation Trends in the Twenty-First Century," deferred to Moore's law, suggesting that it will take only 15 to 20 years for the speed of computer data processing to match the human brain. With all that technological and economic promise, there is a need for human thought to evolve as well.

What would such evolution mean? According to Carlson, instead of just wrestling with certain existing problems within an organization, we must instead work toward fulfilling unfulfilled needs. Here, innovative ideas are key. In fact, Carlson envisions the successful organization of the future as one with teams of "champions," talented employees passionately engaged in bringing innovative ideas to fruition.

Carlson said that the truly successful organization would be transparent, avoid jargon, and work hard to place customer service and value ahead of shareholder value. Utopian? Perhaps. But worth striving for, without question.

Not all futurists at the conference shared his optimism, however.

Global management consultant Barry Minkin offered leaner, bleaker, harsher visions in "ECONO 2003: The Coming Global Depression," describing the deep, damaging economic fault lines that will lead to a dangerous and "inevitable econoquake." Minkin, who calls himself a realist, criticized the prevailing economic tools, measurements, and forecasts as inadequate or obsolete. GDP, for instance, doesn't make sense anymore: It doesn't measure accurately, and it doesn't make a difference, Minkin said. He ridiculed trickle-down economic theories as equal to "giving oats to horses to feed the birds."

He sees no economic expansion in the immediate future, despite low interest rates, arguing that the jobs being lost now are not coming back. He anticipates an economic depression--"seven bad years, followed by seven good years."

One way to stem the impending disaster, at least in the United States, is to appoint a council of top CEOs to advise the nation on fiscal matters, Minkin said.

Power Plays
Another pervasive theme at this year's conference was power: who has it, who doesn't, and what should happen with our existing power structures. Edie Weiner stepped up to the podium again, this time joining colleague Arnold Brown and others in "The Future of Power: In Societies, Organizations, and the Marketplace." Brown said that power lies with those who have the ability to control and use information, a relevant theory far beyond the insular confines of government buildings and professional associations. As Weiner pointed out, self-help books, spas, and even comparison pricing empower us with information and present new choices.

The upside of an empowered people, so to speak, is that Big Brother doesn't have quite so much power as he used to. The downside, according to Weiner, is a disturbing countertrend: Little Brother--specifically, surveillance companies that have the ability not only to overturn bigger institutions (potentially a good thing) but also to spy on individuals (presumably a bad thing).

The session's overall message was that the nature of power is changing. Power is becoming more diffuse than ever, the speakers argued. It is no longer about who has the money or the pedigree, but who has the intelligence and, perhaps above all, the technology.

Furthering a dialogue about power was former Colorado Governor Richard Lamm, who offered a platform on paradigm-challenging, visionary ideas on democracy and taxes.

Lamm wondered aloud, Is democracy a sufficiently participatory device? Does it reward what is right? Elect leaders who can make hard choices? It could be, but democracy must first be reconfigured and revitalized. Democracy needs to be a far more participatory form of government, Lamm argued.

He also proposed some controversial ideas: The entire U.S. health system, including Medicare, is unsustainable, he said. "We must stop subsidizing the wealthy elderly." Lamm also wants to tax gasoline at a higher and "far more honest rate," particularly in light of the excessive number of cars on our roads.

James Canton, head of the Institute for Global Futures, spoke more optimistically, advising futurists to follow this formula to successfully navigate the future: Anticipate, Adapt, Innovate, Evolve.

 About the Reporters
Arthur B. Shostak is a professor of sociology at Drexel University, 523 Dudley Avenue, Narberth, Pennsylvania 19072. Telephone 1-610-668-2727; e-mail shostaka@drexel.edu.
Janet Hennard is the founder of Strategic Marketing Services, a firm that specializes in business intelligence and long-range strategic directions in a competitive environment. E-mail jhennard@strategicmktg.com.
John Smart is president of the Institute for Accelerating Change, 2227 Amirante Drive, San Pedro, California 90732. Telephone 1-310-831-4191; e-mail johnsmart@accelerating.org.

Editor's note: Visit the Futurist Bookshelf for a summary of the volume of essays prepared in conjunction with WorldFuture 2003, 21st Century Opportunities and Challenges: An Age of Destruction or An Age of Transformation, edited by Howard F. Didsbury Jr.

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